2021 gradually came to an end, accompanied by the new energy vehicle market to hand over sales of 3.545 million units, an increase of 1.6 times year-on-year, and the penetration rate of the new energy vehicle market exceeded the 10% mark to 13.4%, which is a nearly perfect good result. Behind the repeated monthly sales of new energy vehicles, it is the traditional car companies to accelerate the transformation of new energy vehicles and increase the research and development and investment in new models, the new car-making forces are working hard for the annual sales to break through the critical point of 100,000, and the entire upstream and middle-level industrial chain enterprises are providing sufficient equipment and materials for the terminal and adding full horsepower to expand production and prepare.
However, it should also be noted that due to the increase in the ownership of terminal new energy vehicles (which has reached 7.84 million by the end of 2021), various contradictions in the energy replenishment system have gradually surfaced, whether it is the difficulty of high-speed charging during holidays, or the charging time that is often faced during normal hours, or the problems such as long charging queues, have entered the market vision, which not only aroused the hot discussion of investors, but also aroused widespread concern in the industry. This problem that restricts the continued rapid development of new energy vehicles in the future must be properly solved, and the Ningde era, as the leader of power batteries, has given a solution.
At the press conference of the cataline era power exchange brand EVOGO on January 18, CATL proposed a series-produced battery specially developed for the realization of shared power exchange - "chocolate battery", and showed a unique express change station, the most unexpected thing is that CATL officially announced that it will select ten cities to start the first batch of power exchange services, and unveiled the 001 member of EVOGO's "Little Green Ring Family" - FAW Besturn NAT combination power exchange version.
01
The three major problems of power exchange are expected to be solved
As a member of the energy replacement system, the power exchange mode is not the first time proposed by the Ningde era, before many companies have already had a substation layout in the mainland, but compared with the charging pile and charging station scale of the charging mode, it can only be regarded as just starting, and the reason for the slow growth is mainly in three points:
(1) Power battery is difficult to standardize, power battery itself is a customized product, each battery manufacturer due to research and development direction and progress is different, so that the energy density, battery structure, size specifications and other aspects of its power battery products can not be unified.
(2) The power exchange method is difficult to unify, the power battery is installed in different car companies, as well as different models, resulting in different ways of using new energy vehicles when changing power, the current way includes chassis power exchange, side power exchange and sub-box power exchange, different power exchange methods and different models are more difficult to be compatible with each other.
(3) The early investment and late operating costs are high, the construction of the substation in addition to equipment, site, but also need to carry out power battery reserves, a single passenger car replacement power station investment of up to 5 million yuan (including battery reserves), and the power exchange mode can not be done to let the owner of the charging pile to charge, the need for professionals to carry out the operation of power exchange equipment, as well as the distribution and charging of power batteries, so the cost is relatively high.
With the launch of the catheter era, with its chocolate replacement block with three major advantages, it will be possible to solve the above two most important standardization problems and rapidly promote the development of the power exchange mode.
As mentioned in the above problem, the problem of unified standards makes the promotion of the power exchange mode not a car company or battery manufacturer can achieve, considering that the key point lies in the power battery, the real rise of the power exchange needs to occupy the absolute dominant position in the market power battery enterprises and car companies to play a leading and leading role, through their own industry influence to achieve the full landing of the power exchange mode.
In terms of power battery companies, AS the national and even global power battery leader, CATL's market share has been in the first place, especially in the case of competition in the power battery market in 2021 is not calm, the market share of CATL era is still as high as 52.1%, almost equivalent to the sum of the market share of LG New Energy and Panasonic, the battery leaders in Japan and South Korea. In 2021, a total of 58 power battery companies in the mainland new energy vehicle market achieved car loading, which was 13 fewer than the same period last year, which means that 13 more power battery companies are out, and at the same time, the previously ranked overseas powerful rivals LG New Energy and Panasonic have experienced a relatively large market share regression, which is also reflected in the global list.
The Ningde era occupies a dominant and continuously growing market share is its promotion of the power exchange model of the bottom line, more than half of the new energy vehicles in the mainland are using the power battery of the Ningde era, while basically all the car companies on the market are customers of the Ningde era, and most car companies will put the Ningde era in a position of supply, which will make the products of the Ningde era power exchange brand meet the needs of most car companies and models in the early stage. At the same time, the chocolate exchange block launched by CATL has a wide range of adaptability (suitable for passenger cars and logistics vehicles from A00 to B and C) and flexible combination according to consumer needs, and the characteristics of on-demand rental electricity can also solve consumers' worries.
It is worth mentioning that in 2021, the mainland has realized the importance of leading enterprises in the process of promoting the unification of power exchange standards, and at the end of 2021, the "Construction Specification for Electric Passenger Car Sharing and Substations" officially released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers at the end of 2021 also invited head power battery manufacturers (Ningde Times, Sunwoda, etc.), major car companies (GAC, BAIC, etc.) and enterprises currently engaged in power station replacement (Weilai, Hangzhou Botan Technology, Aodong New Energy, etc.).
02
Power exchange and charging are not a substitute relationship
The relationship between the two energy replenishment systems of charging mode and power exchange mode is not a substitution relationship, but a complementary relationship. At present, due to the continuous growth of new energy vehicle sales, the scale of the supplementary energy market will be quite large in the future, and it is difficult to support the huge demand by relying on the charging system alone, by the end of 2021, the number of charging infrastructure in the mainland will reach 2.617 million units, an increase of 70.1% year-on-year, of which 1.147 million units of public charging piles.
The number of charging piles, whether in absolute terms or the growth rate, can not be compared with the growing number of new energy vehicles, and as the power battery technology continues to innovate, the energy density is further improved, and the slow charging time may be increased from today's 6-8 hours to more than 10 hours, and it will not be able to meet the needs of consumers. This also makes it difficult to achieve a vehicle-to-pile ratio of 1:1, which has been maintained at about 3:1 before, and this deteriorating trend will only become more and more serious as the sales of new energy vehicles continue to increase and the energy density of power batteries increases, so as an important member of the energy replenishment system, the promotion of the power exchange model is very necessary.
Previously, the power exchange industry is in a separate situation, car companies, independent third parties and other companies have participated, but there is no absolute leader, from the perspective of the scale of the replacement station, mainly by Weilai, Aodong New Energy, Botan Technology three enterprises to build, by the end of 2021, the national replacement power station more than 1200, of which Weilai with 777 substations occupy more than 60% of the market share, Aodong New Energy and Botan Technology with nearly 400 and 110 substations respectively ranked second and third.
However, whether it is the number of players or the scale of the completion of the replacement power station, compared with the demand for terminal new energy vehicles is still far from enough, at present, new players have begun to enter the field, such as Sinopec planning to build 5,000 charging and replacing power stations during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, GCL Energy Raised 3.3 billion yuan for the construction of 300 passenger car replacement power stations and 185 heavy truck replacement power stations, and the official announcement of the Ningde era at this time is timely.
Finally, it is worth noting that the Ningde era has long had a layout for power exchange, as early as 2020, it jointly invested in the establishment of Wuhan Weineng Battery Asset Co., Ltd. with Weilai and other enterprises, thus officially starting to enter the power exchange industry, and in 2021, when the new energy industry chain broke out in the whole line, it was also set up in Fujian and Jilin to establish subsidiaries of the power exchange business, and signed a cooperation agreement with the People's Government of Guizhou Province to build a power exchange network in Guiyang City, and to carry out all-round cooperation in the construction of power exchange facilities and the improvement of the power exchange capacity of new energy vehicles. Therefore, the Ningde era already has technical reserves and practical experience in the field of power exchange, and the official release of the power exchange brand is undoubtedly the acceleration key of the development of the power exchange mode.
03
Four-way benefits from power exchange mode
Previously, although the power exchange mode was also repeatedly mentioned in the policy, such as the price of new energy passenger cars must be lower than or equal to the price range of 300,000 yuan before subsidies, and the vehicles that use the "power exchange mode" do not have to be restricted by this provision, but are subject to factors such as large costs, insufficient research and development technology, and low frequency of use, are mostly indirect benefits. Obviously, this indirect favorable policy is still not direct enough, but this situation has begun to change intuitively in 2021.
In 2021, whether it is the formal formulation of the power exchange standard of the mid-term association, or the pilot work of the application of the new energy vehicle power exchange mode carried out by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the National Energy Administration (there are 11 pilot cities, including 8 first-line comprehensive application cities and 3 heavy truck characteristic cities), it shows that the country has begun to pay attention to the trend of obvious policy tilt, and this is precisely because the power exchange model has incomparable advantages, car companies, consumers, substation main body and battery manufacturers can benefit a lot from it:
(1) The purchase cost is significantly reduced, the cost of the power battery accounts for about 40% of the cost of the electric vehicle, and the new energy vehicle in the power exchange mode can achieve the separation of vehicle and electricity, consumers can choose to only buy bare cars and use the battery rental mode, thereby greatly reducing the initial one-time purchase cost, and car companies can also give different solutions according to the needs of different consumers, further recognized by the market. According to the market, the combined power-swap version of FAW Besturn NAT, a member of the EVOGO "Little Green Ring Family", is about 50% cheaper than its charging version.
(2) The energy replenishment time is greatly reduced, and the charging mode is most criticized by consumers because the charging time is longer, slow charging takes 6-8 hours, and fast charging also takes about 40 minutes. Not only private cars, but also for commercial vehicles such as operating vehicles with high charging frequency and electric heavy trucks and buses with high power, the 3-5 minute power change time is obviously easier to gain favor.
At the same time, due to the speed of the power exchange mode, private car owners no longer need to struggle with high power, because the mileage of the car in the city may only reach about 20% of the battery, which not only reduces the mileage anxiety of consumers, but also reduces the use of precious resources by using small batteries.
(3) good battery recycling and cascade utilization, power battery life in about 4-6 years, new energy vehicle sales increased significantly, but also brought about the increase in the scale of power battery decommissioning, now the upstream lithium, cobalt, nickel and other mineral resources prices are getting higher and higher, power battery recovery can obtain economic benefits by reusing these energy metals, reduce dependence on upstream mineral resources.
The power battery in the power exchange mode does not belong to the consumer, but will return to the battery manufacturers with the leasing process, so the battery manufacturers are expected to realize the comprehensive management of the power battery research and development from the starting point - power battery production - battery installation use - power battery replacement - battery ladder use - battery recycling end point, which is also an important piece of the puzzle in the power battery industry chain for the Ningde era.
(4) New service model, battery manufacturers' power battery products in addition to providing to terminal car companies for loading, but also a new growth path, that is, in the battery asset company and the main body of the power battery rental. Because the replacement power station needs to carry out a certain scale of power battery reserves, unified management and charging at night during the low peak period of electricity consumption, which is conducive to peak shaving and valley filling to alleviate the overall electricity pressure and reduce the cost of electricity, but also through professional management and maintenance to extend the service life of the power battery, eliminate safety hazards to reduce the overall cost.
Take the recent launch of the power exchange service brand EVOGO and the combination of power exchange overall solutions of the Ningde era as an example, the main business of the Ningde era includes power battery systems, energy storage systems and lithium battery materials, from the first half of 2021 business performance split point of view, although the first major business is still power battery system sales, revenue of 30.45 billion yuan, an increase of 125.94% year-on-year, but the Ningde era is not satisfied with single business development, Its emphasis on energy storage system sales revenue of 4.69 billion yuan, an increase of 727.36% year-on-year, such a rapid growth rate makes the energy storage business has gradually become the second largest business after the power battery system business in the Ningde era. Now that the CATL era has officially launched the power exchange brand, the service of separating vehicle and electricity from the whole market has been implemented on a large scale, and it is expected to quickly develop a third high-speed growth point for the NINGDE era after the power battery and energy storage business.
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