Ningde layout to change electricity, how to break the dilemma of car companies? | See Wisdom Research

On January 18, CATL officially opened the launch of the power exchange brand, not only proposed to the market the mass production battery developed for the purpose of sharing power exchange - "chocolate battery", which can be replaced according to the range needs of consumers the flexibility of the number of battery blocks, and the wide range of passenger cars and logistics vehicles suitable for from A00 to B and C, which left a deep impression on the market, but also showed a unique express change station.

Wall Street Insight Research believes that for stable operating routes, fixed mileage demand, and more homogeneous quality requirements of operating vehicles, long-distance passengers and trucks, car companies in order to increase sales, dispel consumer concerns and cooperate with battery manufacturers to do corresponding cooperation in order to enjoy the benefits it brings, but for the need to highlight the differentiation, reflecting its core competitiveness of passenger cars, especially in the market itself in the market may consider more, Because the most important component batteries will be fully standardized among car companies, the automakers will lose part of the battery design rights, only need to consider the shell design and component integration, and the car companies that want to maintain their dominance in the industrial chain are unwilling to give up the design rights of important components.

Although the replacement brand of the Ningde era has aroused the market's attention to the power exchange model, it is expected to drive the rise of the power exchange model, but for the most direct contact parties - electric vehicle consumers and terminal new energy vehicle companies will bring what kind of impact, Wall Street Insight research on the highlights of the Ningde era to change the brand, as well as the battery manufacturers officially entered the power exchange mode after the double impact on car companies and consumers to do in-depth explanation and analysis.

1. "Chocolate exchange block" became the biggest shining point of the conference

The "combined power exchange overall solution" released by CATL is composed of three major products, namely, the power exchange block, the quick change station and the APP, of which the battery specially developed and mass-produced for the realization of shared power exchange - the chocolate power exchange block has become the biggest shining point of the conference with its three major advantages:

(1) Small and high energy, wide applicability: the chocolate exchange block adopts the latest CTP technology of the Ningde era, so that its weight energy density exceeds 160Wh/kg, the volume energy density exceeds 325Wh/L, a single battery can provide about 200 kilometers of endurance, and based on the development principle of generalization adaptation, EVOGO's chocolate exchange block can be applied to passenger cars and logistics vehicles from A00 class to B class and C class.

(2) Free combination, on-demand rental: The chocolate exchange block is definitely flexibly combined according to the needs of consumers, and the demand for different mileages can be matched by increasing the fast number of power exchange blocks (with three kinds of mileage options of 200, 400 and 600 kilometers), and can be adapted to the pure electric platform developed by 80% of the world's 80% that have been listed and will be listed in the next 3 years.

(3) Minimalist design, rechargeable and replaceable: The chocolate exchange block adopts wireless BMS technology for the first time, and there is only a high-voltage positive and negative interface outside the power exchange block, which greatly improves the reliability of the plugged and unplugged components, and supports the charging function, which can be combined with the existing home charge and fast charge to form the energy replenishment mode of the whole scene.

In addition, the ningde era of the express station itself is also unique, the size of the standard station is only the same as three parking spaces, the station stores 48 power exchange blocks, and the replacement of a single power block is about 1 minute, ensuring that users do not need to wait for the charging of the replacement block for a long time. CATL officially announced that it will select 10 cities as the first batch of small green ring cities to start EVOGO services, and at present, FAW Besturn NAT combination power exchange version has joined the Ningde era to change the point brand family, becoming a member of the "Little Green Ring Family" "001", and more family members such as 002 and 003 of the Small Green Ring Family in the future will also be revealed.

2. The contradictory relationship between the car company and the main body of the replacement power station

Although the Ningde era of power exchange brand conference has attracted the warm attention of many investors, and the market is widely discussed, especially in today's number of charging piles, whether in absolute terms or growth rate can not be compared with the growing number of new energy vehicles, the promotion of the power exchange model seems to be very necessary.

However, Wall Street Insight and Wisdom Research believes that the power exchange model itself for consumers, not only provides a new way to replenish energy in addition to charging, but also gives the choice of separate purchase of vehicle and electricity, which not only reduces the time of replenishment, but also reduces the cost of first purchase, which is naturally an advantage. But for terminal car companies, it not only brings benefits, it needs to be divided into two parts, and the main player segmentation of the current substation of the substation mainly includes the following five types:

(1) Car companies themselves: WEILAI, BAIC, Lifan, etc. have participated, of which NIO occupies more than 60% of the market share with the scale of 777 substations.

(2) Traditional energy enterprises: Sinopec and PetroChina are relying on the coordinated layout of gas stations and substations to develop substations, of which Sinopec plans to build 5,000 charging and replacing power stations by 2025.

(3) Independent third party: Aodong New Energy and Botan Technology ranked second and third with the scale of nearly 400 and 110 substations respectively, of which Aodong New Energy said that it would invest in the construction of 10,000 substations nationwide within 5 years

(4) Power grid enterprises: will hold 4,000 new substations and 228,000 sets of batteries by 2025.

(5) Power battery manufacturers: CATL officially entered the substation, and said that it will carry out services to all car companies, and will select ten cities to start the first batch of power exchange services in the future.

On the one hand, car companies do benefit from the power exchange model, the current mainstream energy supplement system in the slow charging pile still occupies the vast majority of the share, and due to consumer mileage anxiety, power battery technology is necessary to continue to innovate, energy density is also expected to be further improved, slow charging time or from today's 6-8 hours to more than 10 hours, can not meet the needs of consumers; at the same time, with the new energy industry chain in the upstream raw materials price pressure transmission, and the complete decline of new energy vehicle subsidies, The price of new energy vehicles has also shown a price increase trend, making consumers have concerns about new energy vehicles, and sales have reached a bottleneck.

Therefore, before the full popularization of fast charging and supercharging, the convenient energy replenishment time of the power exchange mode of 3-5 minutes and the first purchase cost advantage of vehicle and electricity separation can indeed dispel the concerns of some consumers and choose new energy vehicles, especially due to the different battery installation locations, power batteries are not standard, different connection interfaces and other reasons, resulting in the promotion of new energy vehicle power exchange mode is slower, but the power battery leading enterprise Ningde era launched a standardized "chocolate exchange block", which will accelerate the promotion of battery standardization work. Press the accelerator key for swap mode.

Benefiting from the above advantages, car companies can launch a variety of sales schemes according to the power exchange, which will eliminate consumer mileage anxiety and the impact of price increases, and further promote the terminal sales of new energy vehicle companies, at present, SAIC, FAW, BAIC, GAC, Changan, Dongfeng and Hezhong and other car companies have launched power exchange models, not only because the vehicles that use the power exchange mode are not subject to the price range of 300,000 yuan before the new energy passenger car subsidy, but really think that the power exchange model is a new breakthrough.

But on the other hand, car companies may also face the impact of damage to the status of the industrial chain. The working mode of the power exchange mode includes chassis power exchange, side power exchange and sub-box power exchange, because the equipment in the power exchange station is fixed, so the different power exchange methods are difficult to be compatible with each other. The car company chooses the power exchange mode, especially the choice of the fifth type of power exchange main player, which means that it is necessary to cooperate with the battery manufacturer to a certain extent for power battery design, such as the chocolate battery block of the Ningde era, in order to ensure the flexible combination of three battery blocks, it is necessary for the car itself to install three battery brackets in the ground, and other related structural parts and lines are pre-installed and fixed, rather than the battery manufacturers tailor-made non-standardized power batteries for different models of car companies. This will lead to the shaking of the position of car companies in some parts.

In the era of traditional fuel vehicles, the car company has a high voice in the entire industry chain, if any part of the car accounts for more than 10% of the purchase cost of the vehicle, the whole vehicle end will begin to control, and the power battery has now accounted for about 30% of the procurement cost, even in the first two years can account for 40% to 50%, the car company does not control is impossible, at present, the car company has consciously carried out spontaneous research on the power battery, For example, Tesla, a leading company in new energy vehicles, is developing and producing 4680 batteries on its own.

Previously, the news of Huawei's car manufacturing once made Huawei change from a strong partner that provides an efficient and intelligent system for car companies to a competitor that challenges the discourse power of terminal car companies, and even made many car companies maintain a cautious attitude towards Huawei. Today's battery manufacturers into the power exchange model, if the car companies want to enjoy the benefits and benefits of the aforementioned replacement power station, they must cooperate with the battery manufacturers to a certain extent to standardize the design of the vehicle in order to meet the power exchange standards.