Abstract: The closing price of the active egg futures contract in 2021 showed a range of 4140-5000 yuan / 500kg. 1-4 month futures price main for the 05 contract, the May contract itself is an off-season contract, superimposed on the impact of the decline in spot prices, the overall price shows a low range operation, the main switch to the 09 contract in late April, the September contract itself is a peak season contract, the market expectations are more optimistic, the price is at a higher level, but the pig price fell sharply and the demand performance was less than expected, the September contract futures price showed a high downward trend, the main contract switched to the 01 contract in late August, and the overall supplementary performance this year was general, Superimposed spot prices higher, the market for the 01 contract expectations optimistic, so that the 01 contract in September and October showed a record high volatility, but with the Approaching Spring Festival, the market expectations changed, for the 01 contract and the stocking cycle divergence increased, 01 contract showed a high downward trend.
In 2022, the abnormal changes in the supply and demand side of the egg market are relatively limited, the overall price is expected to continue the seasonal range fluctuation law, the first half of the year in the egg-laying chicken inventory is expected to increase to boost the market supply of loose expectations, superimposed pig prices fall spillover effect, the pressure above the price is still relatively large, but the feed cost high running on the relative support of eggs is still there, the overall price is expected to show a weak shock operation, the focus of the second half of the year is around the first half of the year to supplement the rhythm and the relative changes in the cost side, The overall price operating range is expected to continue the seasonal upward pattern, but whether the relative high can reach the 2021 high depends on the change in hog prices. Egg 05 contract belongs to the off-season contract, the futures price is expected to run in the range of 3900-4300 yuan / 500kg, in terms of operation, it is recommended that upstream aquaculture enterprises pay attention to the opportunity to sell insurance in the high range of futures prices.
This article originates from Founder Medium Term Futures
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