2021 is undoubtedly a difficult year, but at the same time a year of profound changes, this year is also destined to be an epoch-making year for China's automotive industry.
Sort out the development trajectory of the industry and gain insight into the future trend. Oxcart Network specially launched the "2021 Great Change" special edition, divided into two series, the first and second series, together with readers to "know the past, know the future".
1. Lack of core pain throughout the year
The shortage of chip supply has become a "hurdle" that cannot be bypassed in 2021. From December 2020, the supply of vehicle-grade chips was tight, and by 2021, due to the superposition of factors such as repeated epidemics and natural disasters, the automotive industry has been tied by chips for the first time.
The enterprise side was forced to stop work and production, even Honda, Toyota, Volkswagen, General Motors and other multinational giants could not mobilize the supply chain, ideal, Weilai and other new forces are more difficult to overcome, have reduced the delivery volume.
According to data, the global production of cars will be reduced by 11.31 million in 2021. The largest production cuts were in Europe, North America, and China, with production cuts of 3.349 million units, 3.412 million units, and 1.982 million units, respectively. Production in the rest of Asia excluding China decreased by 1.952 million units.
The chip shortage crisis has been going on for more than a year, and the toughest moments seem to be over. However, many companies/institutions predict that the shortage of automotive chips will continue until mid-2022.
Crisis is accompanied by opportunity, and pain breeds awakening and change. For China's auto industry, only by mastering key core technologies can we gradually realize the safety and controllability of China's automotive industry chain supply chain.
2. Carbon neutrality begins in the first year
2021 is the first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan and the first year of carbon neutrality.
At the 75th session of the United Nations General Assembly held on September 22, 2020, China announced that it will increase its nationally determined contribution, strive to peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2030, and strive to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.
The data shows that the transportation industry is the third largest source of carbon emissions in China, and as an important participant in the field of transportation, it is urgent to reduce and decarbonize the automobile field.
New energy and new energy vehicles are an important part of achieving "carbon neutrality". In this context, car companies have taken active actions to accelerate "decarbonization" to become a major trend in the automotive industry, and vigorously develop new energy vehicles has also become the consensus of car companies.
On June 28, 2021, Great Wall Motors took the lead in proposing the goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2045; BYD announced the launch of the company's carbon neutrality planning research to make three "1/3" subtractions of vehicle exhaust emissions to help the zero-carbon target; Volkswagen Group said that it will achieve "carbon neutrality" in 2050; Mercedes-Benz plans to achieve "carbon neutrality" in the new car camp by 2039; Toyota released 16 pure electric vehicles in one go at the electric vehicle strategy conference, showing its determination to face electrification.
At the same time, in order to achieve sustainable development of the whole life cycle of automobiles, car companies lead suppliers to reduce carbon, starting from the design, manufacturing, application, recycling and other aspects of the industrial chain, to create a green and low-carbon supply chain, Bosch, Continental, ZF and other upstream and downstream enterprises in the industrial chain have also formulated carbon neutrality goals.
3. The outbreak of new energy vehicles
After years of popularization and unremitting promotion, 2021 has become a real "blowout year" of China's new energy, ushering in an explosive period of market promotion.
According to the data of the Association, the wholesale number of new energy passenger vehicles in 2021 was 3.312 million units, an increase of 181.0% year-on-year, and retail sales reached 2.989 million units, an increase of 169.1% year-on-year. The penetration rate from January to December was 14.8%, which was significantly higher than the penetration rate of 5.8% in 2020. China continues to be the world's largest producer, marketer and leader of new energy vehicles.
In contrast, the wholesale of traditional fuel vehicles in 2021 was 17.79 million units, down 4% year-on-year, and retail sales of 17.16 million units, down 6% year-on-year.
The trend of strong differentiation between new energy vehicles and traditional fuel vehicles is obvious, and new energy vehicles will achieve a substitution effect on the fuel vehicle market and accelerate the pace of transformation to new energy in the automobile market.
Industry analysts believe that with the implementation of new energy subsidies, the price of some models has been fine-tuned, and the consumer mentality has also changed, and the demand for new energy vehicles will still be slightly affected. However, new energy vehicles continue to be hot, and there is currently a large backlog of undelivered orders in the early stage, so most of the sales of new energy models will not be significantly affected by the decline.
The Association expects that in 2022, the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles will be more than 5.5 million units, and the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles will reach about 25%.
4, Wang Chuanfu: Chinese look down on their own brands to change
At the 2021 China Automotive Chongqing Forum, Wang Chuanfu, chairman and president of BYD Co., Ltd., expressed his views: "I think Chinese look down on the old problem of independent brands to change, because we have indeed changed now, and we are not opposed, the people buy joint venture brands, but before buying, they hope to go to the stores of their own brands to see, to open, and then to compare."
In recent years, the decline of mainstream joint ventures and the growth of independent brands have clearly formed a sharp contrast, reflecting that independent brands are constantly eroding the market for joint venture brands.
According to the latest data from the Association, 930,000 self-owned brand retail vehicles were sold in December 2021, an increase of 4% year-on-year. In December, the domestic retail share of independent brands was 46.3%, an increase of 6.9 percentage points year-on-year; the annual share was 41%, an increase of 5.6 percentage points. In December, the retail sales of mainstream joint venture brands were 930,000 units, down 19% year-on-year.
From the perspective of car companies, the joint venture brands that originally dominated the domestic market, in the top ten sales in 2021, there are only four seats left, and the annual sales volume is basically not as good as in 2020, and the market share is slowly being eroded.
The first place is still FAW-Volkswagen, the second is SAIC-GM, and the third is no longer SAIC Volkswagen in previous years, but Geely – this is also the first time geely has won the top three domestic annual sales, and only less than 5,000 cars less than the second place SAIC-GM.
The next four to ten are SAIC-GM-Wuling, SAIC Volkswagen, Changan Automobile, Dongfeng Nissan, Great Wall Motor, Chery Automobile and FAW Toyota.
This round of independent share of the increase, but also accompanied by a very important feature: the advantages of products in electrification and intelligence, walking in front of the joint venture brand, luxury brand, so that the independent impact of the joint venture has more advantages.
The penetration rate of new energy vehicles by independent brands in December has reached 35.2%; the penetration rate of new energy by luxury brands has also reached 27.2%; while the penetration rate of new energy by mainstream joint venture brands is still at the bottom, only 3.7%.
In the field of new energy intelligent vehicles, Chinese brands have achieved multi-field transcendence at the core technology level. Whether it is the appearance technology, or the core technology of new energy vehicles such as batteries, motors, and electronic controls, as well as intelligent technologies such as intelligent network connection and intelligent cockpit, it has surpassed the technical level of the joint venture brand and led the development of new energy vehicles in the world.
5. The joint venture share ratio of passenger cars has been liberalized
On 27 December 2021, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce issued the Special Administrative Measures for Foreign Investment Access (Negative List) (2021 Edition), which came into effect on 1 January 2022.
In this revision, in the field of automobile manufacturing, the restriction on foreign ownership in passenger car manufacturing and the restriction that the same foreign company can establish two or fewer joint ventures in China to produce similar vehicle products are abolished.
This means that from 2022 onwards, foreign brands can strive for more equity in joint venture car companies, and even have the opportunity to build separate factories in China.
For more than two decades, China has been strictly restrictive about the shareholding ratio of joint venture car companies. This liberalization is conducive to the deepening of market-oriented competition, and also reflects China's adherence to the attitude of a big country opening up to the outside world and the only way to gradually practice the transformation from a big consumer country to a manufacturing power.
From the announcement of the policy in 2018 to the full liberalization of the joint venture equity ratio in 2022, the 4-year buffer period has given each joint venture car company time for internal game.
Taking 2021 as an example, both independent brands will transfer their shares to foreign parties (Yueda Kia), foreign parties will transfer equity to independent brands (Southeast, Denza), and there will also be independent transfers to another independent brand (the merger of the two Malaysias), and independent brands will no longer be the role of "talking about stock comparison".
Fu Yuwu, honorary chairman of the Society of Automotive Engineers of China, believes that the current Chinese automotive industry has opened up the innovation chain from upstream and downstream, "after so many years of baptism, we have finally ushered in the ability to cope with this change."
Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Association, believes that "the abolition of the restriction on foreign ownership in passenger car manufacturing is conducive to market-oriented competition. ”
He said the joint venture is expected to be relatively cautious in equity adjustments. The advantages of joint venture car companies are decades of technical experience accumulation of traditional fuel vehicles and the insight of corresponding consumer groups. After the scale of the traditional fuel vehicle market is blocked, the downside risk of corporate benefits is huge. It is extremely difficult and costly for the Joint Venture Car Company to rebuild the third fuel vehicle company and establish a new brand.
On the other hand, due to the rapid development of New Energy Passenger Vehicles in China and the super performance of independent brands, the rapid feedback mechanism of new energy consumers has helped the industrial chain to actively transform and adjust, forming a leading advantage in the vehicle manufacturing process. In the long run, independent brands will gain a more advantageous market position with the help of the strong growth of new energy vehicles, which will also help to enhance the localization level of key technologies in the new energy industry chain.
6. Cross-border car manufacturing by technology companies
Cross-border car manufacturing is another main theme of the development of the automotive industry in 2021, in which technology companies have become the protagonists driving this change. Xiaomi, Baidu, 360, Huawei and other technology companies have entered the field of vehicle manufacturing, setting off a new wave of cross-border car manufacturing, and the models are diverse.
The wholly-owned car is represented by Xiaomi. At the end of March 2021, Lei Jun announced that Xiaomi will build a car wholly. In September, Xiaomi Car Manufacturing Company was established, injecting 10 billion yuan, and Lei Jun personally took command. On November 27, Xiaomi and the Beijing Economic Development Zone Management Committee reached a cooperation agreement, Xiaomi Automobile Headquarters Base, R&D Headquarters and Sales Headquarters settled in Beijing Economic Development Zone; Beijing Vehicle Factory is divided into phase I and Phase II construction, with an annual production capacity of 300,000 units; in 2024, the first model will be off the production line to achieve mass production.
The joint venture car is represented by Baidu. On March 2, 2021, Jidu Company was officially registered and established as a joint venture between Baidu and Geely Holdings, of which Baidu held 55% of the shares and Geely held 45% of the shares. Moreover, efficient execution efficiency has become the focus of industry attention: on the 100th day, the core team has approached 200 people; on the 128th day, the modeling design plan was completed and entered the engineering development stage; and the intelligent driving and intelligent cockpit function development was launched on the 207th day. Jidu's first car will be unveiled in 2022 and delivered in mass production in 2023.
In addition, Huawei, which "only makes parts and does not build cars, but we help car companies build good cars", is also frantically testing on the edge of car building.
From the Polar Fox Alpha S HI Edition to the Xilix Huawei Smart SF 5, and then to the AITO Q&A M5 on the Huawei Winter Conference. Repeated stone throwing and asking for directions shows Huawei's ambition to step into the field of complete vehicles: friends and businessmen have entered the game, how can Huawei be willing to only be a "green leaf" role such as a supplier?
Xiaomi, Baidu, Huawei and other technology companies have entered the market with strong funds, have strong ecological advantages, generally have good development prospects, and will continue to bring vitality to the new energy market.
7. SAIC Chen Hong's "soul theory" has attracted controversy
In mid-2021, Chen Hong, chairman of SAIC Motor, caused heated discussion at the annual shareholders' meeting.
At that time, some investors asked whether SAIC would consider cooperating with third-party companies such as Huawei in autonomous driving. Chen Hong said: "It's like a company providing us with a holistic solution, so that it becomes the soul and SAIC becomes the body." For such a result, SAIC is unacceptable and must take the soul into its own hands. ”
Huawei publicly responded to this: "The vehicle model is not applicable to all manufacturers. 'Packagers' provide 'convenience', but for traditional car companies, they have also lost the right to speak on the core technology track. ”
The dominance of technology determines the right to speak, no car company is willing to lose the core technology, the key is to recognize what is the soul and what is the body. The McKinsey report pointed out that for the layout of the field of autonomous driving, car companies must clearly know which software needs to be done by themselves, and which can be handed over to suppliers to do? In the whole technical battle, where is the technical control point of the self?
From the current trend, the future development of the automotive industry, automatic driving and intelligent cockpit two major areas are undoubtedly the two core competitiveness of products and enterprises. New forces and traditional car companies in the transition period are doing self-research, and another part of the car companies will gradually choose to outsource in some areas due to their capabilities. In this process of evolution, car companies that lack technical advantages will also be eliminated.
Liu Zongwei, assistant dean of the Academy of Automotive Industry and Technology Strategy, believes that the boundaries of the automotive industry are expanding and gradually blurring, and the vertical industrial chain is changing to a cross-network, in this case, cooperation is inevitable, but it is only a matter of how much cooperation. Enterprises should make choices according to the future development direction of their own product technology, ability reserves, target positioning, etc.
Although some people say that the new four modernizations will make cars tend to homogenize, in the long run, the difference is still obvious.
The future car must be based on a certain scene of the ultimate products, if the positioning of different scenes, different experiences, car companies are not the same, perhaps you think of the "soul" is not necessarily the "soul" in the eyes of others.
Car companies should grasp a core point, that is, how to create different differentiation in the future, and then judge what technology must be mastered and what technology does not need to be mastered by themselves.
8. It is difficult to charge new energy vehicles
By the end of 2021, the number of new energy vehicles in the country will reach 7.84 million, accounting for 2.60% of the total number of vehicles. Among them, there are 6.4 million pure electric vehicles, accounting for 81.63% of the total number of new energy vehicles. However, the construction of supporting infrastructure for new energy vehicles has lagged behind its growth rate significantly.
Every holiday, there is always news that new energy vehicles are difficult to travel for a long time. And with the temperature drop everywhere, especially in the northern region, the "mileage anxiety" of new energy vehicle owners has reappeared.
At present, it seems that battery technology may not have major innovations and breakthroughs in the short term, and solving the problem of charging piles has become the key.
The industry believes that the charging pile industry currently mainly has the following problems: first, the number of charging piles installed is insufficient; second, the layout of charging piles is unreasonable, the current ratio of vehicle piles in China is about 3:1, but the average utilization rate of the entire public charging pile is less than 10%; third, the installation rate of private charging piles in the community is not high; fourth, the interface between charging piles and new energy vehicles is incompatible; fifth, the daily maintenance of charging piles is not in place and cannot be used.
The construction, management and operation of charging piles are the next focus.
For new energy vehicles, there are two main ways to charge, charging pile charging and power exchange. At present, the main force of charging is the use of charging piles, but the industry believes that the development prospects of the power exchange market are huge: power exchange has the advantages of reducing the cost of car purchase, eliminating mileage anxiety, accelerating charging time, and improving safety levels.
Since the replacement power station was first written into the government work report in 2020, the promotion of the pilot of the new energy vehicle replacement mode has also become an important part of releasing the consumption potential in key areas.
As a representative of the car company that pushes the power station and the vehicle-electricity separation model, WEILAI Automobile has an average of more than 20,000 daily power replacement orders in 2021, and the cumulative power exchange service has exceeded 5.9 million times. As of December 31, 2021, NIO has laid out 777 substations nationwide, including 205 highway substations.
In addition to Weilai Automobile, Dongfeng, SAIC, Geely, Changan and other vehicle manufacturers have also cut into the power exchange track. At the same time, more and more traditional energy giants have entered the market to participate in the promotion of the power exchange model.
Following Sinopec and PetroChina, which began to lay out the construction of electric vehicle refueling facilities across the country, Shell Group signed a strategic cooperation agreement with NIO at the end of November 2021. In the Chinese market, the two sides plan to build 100 substations by 2025.
A few days ago, CICC released a research report predicting that in 2022, 10 million new energy vehicle owners will rely on public charging systems to replenish energy, and the contradiction will become increasingly prominent. The investment opportunities in charging and replacing infrastructure are prominent, and it is expected that in 2022, there will be a "big outbreak of power replacement, car companies accelerating the self-construction of super/fast charging stations, and slow charging accelerating into the community".
9. The car company robbery war has been upgraded
The new energy automobile industry has developed very rapidly, resulting in a significant increase in the demand for talents in related positions.
In 2021, tesla, Weilai, ideal, Xiaopeng and other car-making companies will continue to increase the number of recruitment positions and the attention of job seekers. Demand for autonomous driving research and development, intelligent cockpit design, software engineers, sales, user operations and other positions has increased by more than 1.8 times year-on-year.
The new car-making forces launched a "talent war" with high salaries as bait. The average monthly salary given by the new car-making forces is 15367 yuan, up 21.6% in the same period, and the annual salary of some positions related to automatic driving algorithms can even reach more than one million yuan.
At the same time, traditional car-making enterprises have also launched a "talent defense war" characterized by equity incentives to retain people. According to statistics, the total amount of equity incentives of SAIC Motor, Geely Automobile and Great Wall Motor alone has reached about 25 billion yuan.
In addition to the high-paying competition for smart car talents by car companies, local governments are also introducing policies to actively attract automotive talents. For example, the "Implementation Plan for Accelerating the Development of the New Energy Vehicle Industry (2021-2025)" issued by Shanghai municipality in 2021 clearly pointed out: "For qualified outstanding talents at home and abroad in the field of new energy vehicles, direct settlement, talent incentives and other support will be given in accordance with relevant regulations." ”
It is worth noting that the demand and supply of talent in the automotive industry do not match. What is needed in the field of intelligent and connected vehicles is compound talents. For traditional mechanical graduates, because the knowledge structure does not match the job requirements, it takes a lot of time to learn and adapt.
Zhu Mingrong, chairman of the Automotive Talent Professional Committee of the Chinese Talents Research Association, once said: "In the field of intelligent and connected vehicles, the inflow of college graduates is seriously insufficient, and it is difficult to meet the actual needs of the current enterprise development in terms of quality and quantity.
Under the restructuring of industry reform, automotive intelligence talents are relatively scarce. In the new energy automobile industry, it has become a top priority to cultivate talents that meet the requirements of the times.
10. China's automobile exports hit a record high
In 2021, China's automobile exports exceeded 2 million for the first time, breaking the situation that has been hovering around 1 million for many years, and the development of automobile globalization has entered a new stage.
There are four main highlights in automobile exports: one is the rapid growth of Chinese brand automobile exports; the second is that passenger cars and commercial vehicles have achieved rapid growth in exports; the third is the explosive growth of new energy vehicle exports; and the fourth is that Chinese brands have made certain breakthroughs in overseas development.
"In 2021, the export performance of new energy vehicles was outstanding, with exports of 310,000 vehicles, an increase of 3 times year-on-year." Fu Bingfeng, executive vice president of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, analyzed that the European market has become a major incremental market, concentrated in developed countries such as Belgium, Britain, Germany, France, and Norway, reflecting the international competitive advantage of China's new energy vehicles.
In addition, passenger cars and commercial vehicles are growing at a high rate. Passenger cars grew 1.1 times, SUVs dominated the way, and Chinese brands had a competitive edge in SUV models. Commercial vehicles grew by 70.7%, and buses and trucks showed rapid growth.
According to the analysis of professionals, the rapid growth of China's automobile export volume has played an important role thanks to the direct investment model. Chinese car companies such as SAIC Motor, Great Wall Motor, and Geely Automobile have laid out factories overseas, and these directly invested factories have supported Chinese brands to take root overseas.
The China Automobile Association predicts that China's automobile exports will usher in a period of rapid growth, and in 2022, automobile exports are expected to increase by about 22%. The advantages achieved by Chinese auto brands in the transformation of new energy vehicles have become a new driving force for the growth of China's automobile exports.