Energy storage has brought new imagination space for the development of hydrogen energy.
Text/Daily Earnings Report Liu Yuchen
Approaching the Winter Olympics, hydrogen energy concept stocks are on fire again.
Because of this Winter Olympics, a large number of hydrogen energy sources are used, from the fuel of the torch to the hydrogen fuel vehicle of the Winter Olympics.
In addition, we have seen that both the central level and local governments have also intensively introduced relevant policies to promote the development of hydrogen energy.
Can hydrogen energy drive the trillion-dollar market like lithium batteries?
An important piece of the puzzle for the energy transition
In 2020, global carbon dioxide emissions totaled 31.98 billion tons, an increase of 38.4% over the end of the last century. Global climate change is a serious challenge facing all mankind and has a bearing on the sustainable development of all countries in the world.
In 1992, the United Nations General Assembly adopted the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the world's first international convention on controlling greenhouse gas emissions and curbing global warming, which clarified the principles of "common but differentiated responsibilities", equity, the principle of individual capabilities and sustainable development of all countries in the world. Since then, the Kyoto Protocol, the Bali Road Map, the Copenhagen Accord, the Paris Agreement and other conference information have clarified specific arrangements for the future global response to climate change, with the long-term goal of controlling the increase in global average temperature within 2°C compared with the industrial period, and striving to limit the temperature increase to less than 1.5°C, which was reinforced at the 2021 Glasgow Conference.
Compared with the United States and the European Union to achieve the transition from carbon peak to carbon neutrality in about 50-70 years, the target time set by China is only 30 years, relying on stronger policies and higher implementation.
In 2020, China's total energy consumption is 4.98 billion tons of standard coal, of which raw coal, crude oil and natural gas account for 56.8%, 18.9% and 8.4% respectively, and clean energy such as hydropower, nuclear power and wind power account for only 15.9%. Accelerating the speed of energy transition is imminent, as an important part of new energy, hydrogen energy is indispensable.
Three major advantages determine that the development of hydrogen energy is the trend of the times.
First, the calorific value of hydrogen is the highest among common fuels, reaching 142KJ/g, which is about 3 times that of oil and 4.5 times that of coal. This means that hydrogen, which consumes the same mass of energy, provides the greatest amount of energy, in line with the general trend of car lightweighting.
Second, the product of hydrogen combustion is water, completely pollution-free, and can truly achieve zero carbon emissions in the theoretical sense. China is vigorously developing clean renewable primary energy sources such as wind power and photovoltaics, combined with water electrolysis hydrogen production technology, which can achieve clean and low-carbon life cycle throughout the life cycle, so that hydrogen energy can become a bridge connecting different energy forms.
Finally, the reserves are abundant, hydrogen is the most abundant element in the universe, and there is a lot of hydrogen energy available for exploitation in water resources.
In the "863" plan released in 2002, china has established a research and development layout of "three vertical and three horizontal" electric vehicles with hybrid vehicles, pure electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles as the "three verticals" and multi-energy powertrain control systems, drive motors and power batteries as the "three horizontals".
On October 27, 2020, under the guidance of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and compiled by the Society of Automotive Engineers of China, the "Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 2.0" was released, proposing that the number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will reach about 100,000 by 2025, and by 2030-2035, the number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will reach about 1 million.
In 2020, the number of fuel cell vehicles is 10,000, and the sales volume is 1177, which shows that hydrogen fuel cells have a lot of room for growth in the next five years.
At present, energy storage can be divided into electric energy storage, thermal energy storage and hydrogen energy storage, and hydrogen energy storage is very promising. Hydrogen is an excellent energy storage medium, which can be stored in high-pressure tanks in the form of gas and liquid, as well as in the form of a solid phase in hydrogen storage materials. In addition, hydrogen energy storage has a high energy density, which is a rare energy reserve technology that can store more than 100 GWh, and can be applied to both very short or very long time power supply.
Dialysis industry chain
The hydrogen energy industry chain is complex and long, mainly including several links of "hydrogen production, storage, transportation, hydrogen refueling and hydrogenation", and there are many technical processes in each link, while China's current technical level is generally backward.
At present, the main hydrogen production technologies include industrial exhaust by-product hydrogen, electrolysis of water to hydrogen, hydrogen production from chemical raw materials, hydrogen production from fossil fuels, etc. The efficiency of hydrogen production with fossil fuels is high, but the carbon emissions are high, and the electrolysis of hydrogen by renewable energy is pollution-free, but the efficiency is low.
In theory, green hydrogen is the real clean energy in the future, but now China's hydrogen source is still dominated by coal to hydrogen, accounting for up to 63.5%, industrial by-product hydrogen production is 21.2%, natural gas hydrogen production is 13.8%, and water electrolysis hydrogen production accounts for only 1.5%.
The process route of water electrolysis to hydrogen production technology includes alkaline electrolysis to hydrogen (AWE), proton exchange membrane electrolysis to hydrogen (PEM), solid oxide electrolysis to hydrogen (SOE), of which AWE has been fully industrialized in China, PEM has been initially commercialized, and SOE is still in the initial demonstration stage.
PEM electrolyzers are the heart of electrolytic equipment, accounting for nearly 50% of the total cost of hydrogen production systems. But up to now, the core technology and large-scale manufacturers of PEM electrolyzers are in the hands of overseas leading companies, including Nel (Germany), ITM Power (Uk) and Cummins (USA), Siemens (Germany) and other manufacturers.
After production, hydrogen can be stored and transported to hydrogen refueling stations or application terminals for efficient use. Hydrogen storage and transportation for the use of hydrogen energy industry chain key links, the current main storage and transportation of hydrogen include gaseous storage and transportation (long tube trailer, pipeline), low-temperature liquid storage and transportation, organic liquid storage and transportation, solid state storage and transportation, etc., the most mature technology, the most widely used high-pressure gaseous hydrogen storage main carrier for high-pressure hydrogen storage bottle.
Foreign countries have begun to use lighter quality, higher hydrogen storage density IV bottles, while China's IV bottles are still in the process of research and development, currently 35MPa and 70MPa III bottles are the mainstay; IV bottles have the advantages of lighter weight and lower cost compared to type III, and are expected to become the mainstream of vehicle-mounted hydrogen storage bottles in the future. In addition, the hydrogen storage bottle is coated with a layer of high-end carbon fiber, and the material mainly relies on imports from Japan and South Korea.
The hydrogen refueling station is the guarantee of hydrogen energy supply for fuel cell vehicles, but the cost of this link is higher.
The construction cost of building a 35MPa stationary hydrogen refueling station with an average daily hydrogen refueling capacity of 500kg in China is about 12 million yuan, and the construction cost of large hydrogen refueling stations can even reach 40 million yuan.
By the end of 2020, a total of 540 hydrogen refueling stations (public hydrogen refueling stations + private hydrogen refueling stations) will be built worldwide, of which Japan, Germany, Chinese mainland, the United States, and South Korea will rank among the top five in the world, with 137, 90, 85, 63 and 52 respectively.
Domestic hydrogen refueling stations are mainly responsible for enterprises such as PetroChina and Sinopec. The core three major parts of the hydrogen refueling station are compressors, hydrogen storage tanks, filling machines, although the country has the ability to develop and integrate the whole machine of the filling machine, but the hydrogenation gun, pull off valve, flow meter and high-pressure valve pipe fittings and other pipe fittings rely on imports, compressor reliability of domestic diaphragm compressors has yet to be verified.
In 2020, the hydrogen price of hydrogen refueling stations is about 10 US dollars / kgH2 (about 67 yuan / kgH2), corresponding to the cost of 100 kilometers of hydrogen-powered vehicles of about 65 yuan, compared with the cost of 100 kilometers of electric vehicles is about 10 yuan, and the cost of 100 kilometers of gasoline vehicles is 33 yuan.
On the whole, the high cost of each link is the root cause of the large-scale popularization of hydrogen energy, and for a long time to come, the main development goal of the hydrogen energy industry chain is to reduce costs, and the direction of investment layout should also be carried out around this tone, focusing on the cost reduction brought about by the domestic substitution of equipment.