The subsidy is counting down, and the new energy vehicle market is still worth looking forward to

The subsidy is counting down, and the new energy vehicle market is still worth looking forward to

Text: Jiang Bojing

Finally, the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles began to move towards the "countdown".

At the end of 2021, the introduction of the "Notice on the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles in 2022" drew a "stop" to the future of new energy vehicle subsidies.

The "notice" has three basic contents: first, in 2022, the framework and threshold requirements of the current purchase subsidy technical indicator system will remain unchanged; second, in 2022, the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles will decline by 30% compared with 2021; third, the subsidy policy for the purchase of new energy vehicles in 2022 will be terminated on December 31, 2022, and vehicles licensed after December 31, 2022 will no longer be subsidized.

That is, 2022 is a "transition period"; by 2023, this policy will become "history".

This "end" has long been paved, and we are not surprised.

As for the new energy vehicle market, will it be flat or even sluggish because of this?

I think there is a high probability that there will be a temporary stagnation. If the technology and quality of new energy vehicles are "hard enough", then this market will certainly recover and expand significantly.

In the past few years, despite the obstruction of the epidemic, the new energy automobile industry has still made great progress. New and old enterprises have made great progress. Those who "fish in muddy waters" and "cheat" subsidies have also revealed their true faces.

Consumers, most of whom have basically stopped buying cars for subsidies, are for practical purposes. Some automakers, especially companies like Tesla, no longer "care" about subsidies from the perspective of their price increases. Of course, some companies may care a lot about this subsidy.

Therefore, after the cancellation of new energy vehicle subsidies, it has an impact on some users and manufacturers, but the impact on other parts is extremely limited. Therefore, the new energy vehicle market will continue to develop according to its trajectory. Auto companies, or build a car!

In fact, looking at the development of new energy vehicles, it is indeed worth looking forward to. Let's take two companies as an example.

Let's start with Tesla.

Judging from the latest performance, Tesla has broken sales records. Why? If it is the Chinese market that is driving Tesla's progress, this is not an exaggeration.

Or we can say that the Chinese market is Tesla's "savior".

According to the data, Tesla's delivery data over the past 2021 is 936172 cars, an increase of 87% compared to 499647 in 2020. The Chinese market has become Tesla's largest single market in the world. According to data as of November 30, 2021, Tesla's Shanghai factory has delivered more than 400,000 vehicles.

Just think, what would Tesla do without the promotion of the Chinese market?

Although in the past year, Tesla has been controversial in the Chinese market. However, this does not hinder the enthusiasm of Chinese consumers for Tesla. What is the reason for this? It can only be said that the Chinese market is too large and the future is too bright. Because, not only Tesla, but also the sales of Chinese local brands, it is also very good. It is precisely because of the beauty of the market that Tesla dares to increase prices. As for factors such as lack of cores, they are not the reasons now.

Look at BYD again.

A few days ago, Citi raised the target price of BYD's A and H shares to 504 yuan and 587 Hong Kong dollars. It is also optimistic about its 2022 production capacity forecast.

BYD's "high look" is not surprising.

Judging from BYD's performance, in 2021, BYD's new energy vehicle sales increased by 218.3% year-on-year, with remarkable results. In particular, BYD is not only an automobile manufacturer, but also a new energy battery manufacturer, which is a very big advantage. From the perspective of industry prospects, even if the new energy vehicle subsidies are counting down this year, after a short period of stagnation, the new energy automobile industry will continue to develop with a high probability.

Tesla's good performance in 2021 and signs of continued price increases can give us confidence. Therefore, Citi's optimism about BYD is not unreasonable.

As for the entire new energy automobile industry, the development will not be bad in theory, unless there is a very unexpected situation. Of course, the process from subsidy slippage to cancellation will definitely have an impact, but this is not the mainstream!

Most importantly, "the rice bowl of energy must be in your own hands"!

Although the decline in new energy is not small, new energy is still worth looking forward to in the new year.

A few days ago, an article in the People's Daily attracted attention. "The rice bowl of energy must be in our own hands", which makes us look forward to the energy sector, especially the new energy sector.

"Clean and low-carbon", "technological innovation", a series of contents are closely related to the future development of the new energy sector. The new energy sector, from a macro point of view, involves a lot of content, lithium energy, hydrogen energy, wind energy, solar energy, nuclear energy, and new energy vehicles. If we want to firmly control the "rice bowl", we must make great efforts in resources, technology, and industrial chains, study new technologies, effectively use resources, and extend the industrial chain. In this way, the "rice bowl" will be held steadily.

In this case, new energy should be worth looking forward to in the capital market, and new energy vehicles are also worth looking forward to.

Of course, sometimes technological progress will subvert the industrial pattern, and some short-term policy changes will temporarily affect the development of the industry, but this is not the mainstream. In the new year, the new energy vehicle market is still worth promising.