1. The new car-making forces and the new energy vehicle sales report cards of traditional car companies in 2021 have been released, and the first and second echelons of the new car-making forces are clearly differentiated, but none of the car companies have annual sales of more than 100,000 vehicles.
2. In 2021, a number of new car-making forces have slowed down their growth from the previous month, and even declined. The decline in growth rate may become the norm for new car-making forces in 2022. As subsidies decline, the competitive landscape will change.
3. After the subsidy is determined to decline, a number of new energy vehicle companies have announced the adjustment of the price of new cars in 2022, although there is a certain transition period, but the price increase is inevitable, and it will also test the elasticity of the market and the acceptance of consumers.
After determining that the subsidy for the new year will continue to decline, the new car-making forces have also handed over the 2021 report card. Two of these changes are that there are still no new car-making forces that sell more than 100,000 vehicles a year, and the number of seats has also changed a lot.
The rapid development of new energy vehicles has both proud and frustrated people.
At the beginning of 2022, as subsidies continue to decline, one question left for the market is, will more and more people be willing to buy new energy vehicles with higher prices?
New Forces of Car-Making The first and second echelons are clearly differentiated
In December 2021, the monthly delivery volume of xiaopeng automobile, ideal automobile, Weilai and Nezha automobile exceeded 10,000 vehicles in a single month, the same as in November.
This also means that the first echelon has basically taken shape, in addition to the traditional perception of "Wei Xiaoli", Nezha Automobile first ran out of the second echelon, since September, sales have been comparable to the top three, and even achieved a counterattack on Weilai and ideal cars. Nezha Automobile's latest investor, 360 Chairman Zhou Hongyi's desire to "build a car for the people" has basically landed.
In December, Xiaopeng Automobile delivered 16,000 units, Ideal Car 14,087, WEILAI 10,489 and Nezha Car 10,127 vehicles. In the second echelon, there are 7807 zero-run cars and 5062 WM cars.
The new model's promotion of Xiaopeng Automobile's monthly delivery volume is very obvious. With the release of orders, the Xiaopeng P5 has been able to deliver 5,030 units in a single month in December, accounting for 31.4% of the monthly delivery of Xiaopeng Automobile.
The most disappointing thing was Weilai, where december deliveries were lower than 10,628 units in September and 10,878 in November. The two major variables encountered by WEILAI in 2021 are: the repeated epidemic in Nanjing in July and August, which led to the suspension of production of suppliers, resulting in the delay in the delivery of some orders; the transformation of production lines in early October, resulting in the pre-delivery or postponement of some orders.
In the absence of new models, the current delivery volume can be seen as NIO's current ceiling. Throughout 2021, WEILAI has indeed encountered a bottleneck of growth, and now it can only pin its hopes on the eT5, which only began to be delivered in September 2022, and the uncertainty is relatively large.
In the whole year, Xiaopeng Automobile delivered a total of 98,155 vehicles, which is also the closest to the threshold of 100,000 vehicles. Since November, Xiaopeng Motors has delivered more than 15,000 units for two consecutive months, achieving the previous goal proposed by He Xiaopeng. On top of 90,000, there are 91,429 nio and 90,491 ideal cars. Nezha Automobile mainly relied on the delivery of the fourth quarter, delivering 69,674 vehicles in the whole year.
The four new car-making forces in the first echelon have covered the range of 100,000 to 500,000 in terms of selling prices, and the lowest average selling price is Nezha Automobile, followed by Xiaopeng Automobile, and the average selling price of Weilai is the highest. According to its third-quarter financial report, the average selling price of NIO bicycles exceeded 350,000. However, Weilai has begun to move closer to the mainstream price market, and the latest eT5 has a minimum price of 258,000 yuan.
In the second echelon, WM Motors delivered 44,157 vehicles and 43,121 zero-run cars in the whole year, and the two new forces also focused on the market of less than 200,000 yuan.
Driven by the overall market, the new energy vehicle brands of traditional car companies are also a force that cannot be ignored. Among them, the fastest growing is Volkswagen's ID series, with sales reaching 13,787 units in December. From March to December, Volkswagen's cumulative sales of the ID series reached 70,625 units.
Geely's new energy brand, Extreme Krypton, which only started deliveries in November, also delivered 5,808 vehicles, of which 3,796 were delivered in December. Dongfeng's Lantu Automobile delivered 3,330 units in December, accumulatively delivering 6,791 units since it began deliveries in August.
While the new car-making forces are still trying to move towards the threshold of 100,000 vehicles sold annually, BYD, which has a first-mover advantage, has achieved two small goals: the annual sales of new energy vehicles in 2021 will be close to 600,000, accounting for more than 80% of all sales vehicles; and the 1 millionth new energy vehicle will roll off the production line. In 2022, which is becoming more competitive, the sales advantage gives BYD more window periods.
In 2021, in addition to BYD, it is a large lead in sales. As far as the new forces of car-making are concerned, the differentiation of the first and second echelons has become increasingly obvious. However, with the introduction of a number of new car-making forces into the market in 2022, the competition between them will become more intense, especially in the market below 300,000, and many new car-making forces, as well as Tesla and BYD, are very important.
In 2021, although each new car-making force grew rapidly year-on-year, after all, the base number in 2019 is small and does not have reference significance, it is worth noting that a number of new car-making forces have a slow increase in the month-on-month increase in 2021, and even a decline. In 2022, uncertainty will increase and growth will slow down to become the norm for new car-making forces. In particular, the ensuing subsidy decline will have a greater impact on the competitive pattern of new car-making forces.
New energy vehicles are getting more and more expensive, are you still willing to buy them?
On the last day of 2021, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Development and Reform Commission and other four ministries and commissions jointly issued the "Notice of the Development and Reform Commission of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of the Ministry of Finance on the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles in 2022" (hereinafter referred to as the "2022 Policy Notice"), which clarified that in principle, the upper limit of the annual subsidy scale is about 2 million, and the subsidy scale should be smoothed out, and the subsidy standards for 2020-2022 will be reduced by 10% on the basis of the previous year. 20%, 30%, that is, the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles in 2022 is a 30% decline on the basis of 2021.
The decline of subsidies has a direct impact on the price of vehicles. In the non-public transportation sector alone, pure electric vehicles with a range of 300km to 400km in 2021 can enjoy 13,000 subsidies; in 2022, they will decline by 30%, that is, reduce the subsidy by 3900 yuan, and the subsidy amount is 9100 yuan.
In 2021, pure electric vehicles with a range of more than 400km and a price of less than 300,000 can enjoy 18,000 subsidies, and in 2022, they will decline by 30%, reducing the subsidy by 5,400 yuan, and the latest subsidy is 13,600 yuan.
Hybrid models with pure electric endurance NEDC working conditions greater than 50km, or WLTC working conditions greater than or equal to 43km, and the price is less than 300,000 yuan, enjoy 6800 yuan subsidy in 2021, and after 30% decline in 2022, reduce the subsidy by 2040 yuan.
"Our industry already has a considerable user base, has passed the stage of requiring a lot of subsidies, and should return to product competition." After the release of the WM M7, Shen Hui, chairman of WM Motor, expressed his attitude towards "subsidy decline" in an interview with Sina Finance's "Avenue Straight".
Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Association, also said: "The policy in 2022 will maintain the overall stability of technical indicators in principle. The details of this policy have not been adjusted at all, which is the overall stability of the expectations and is very conducive to the strong increase of low-end models. In his personal judgment, the increase in new energy vehicles at the end of 2022 is very strong.
Although not all because of the subsidy decline, a number of new energy vehicle companies not only threw out promotional plans at the end of the year, but also launched price increase measures:
On December 31, NIO also released the 2022 car purchase subsidy plan: users who pay a deposit to buy eS8, eS6 and eC6 before December 31, 2021 (inclusive), and successfully pick up their cars before March 31, 2022, can still enjoy subsidies in accordance with the 2021 national subsidy standards, and the difference is borne by NIO.
Xiaopeng Automobile's limited-time insurance strategy is basically similar to THATOs, but the term is slightly postponed than WEIlai: users who pay a deposit from January 1 to 10, 2022 can enjoy the same subsidy policy as in 2021, so the subsidy difference between 2022 and 2021 is borne by Xiaopeng Motors.
Tesla has raised the price before the release of the 2022 policy notice, and the rear-wheel drive version of the Model 3 and Model Y models has been raised by 10,000 yuan and 21,000 yuan respectively. Tesla China said that the price increase is related to the decline in subsidies for new energy vehicles.
Faw-Volkswagen issued a "Countdown to Subsidy Decline" in advance in December 2021 to remind car owners to buy a car as soon as possible. At the same time, it also announced that the price of its models will increase from January 1, 2022: the two pure electric models of ID.6 CROZZ and ID.4 CROZZ have risen by 5400 yuan as a whole. The adjusted starting prices are 242,200 yuan and 205,300 yuan, respectively.
In addition, a number of new energy brands, including Nezha Automobile, Extraordinary Automobile, and GAC Aean, will clearly adjust the price of new cars in 2022, and most of them will rise.
In the post-era of new energy vehicle subsidies, it also throws two tests to the new energy vehicle market: whether the market as a whole has shifted from "flattering" and "policy-supported" to fully competitive market-oriented operation? Will consumers still pay for the price of new energy vehicles, so that they can maintain the rising trend of new energy vehicle sales in 2022?
Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Association, said: "The subsidy decline of 30% will have a certain impact on the growth rate of new energy vehicles, especially the annual subsidy scale is capped at about 2 million vehicles, in fact, the scale is significantly reduced compared with last year, whether it is the amount of subsidized bicycles or the total amount, it is in a relatively low state." Therefore, car companies are facing the challenges of the post-subsidy era, and they will inevitably adjust their prices. ”
But he remains optimistic about full-year sales in 2022. He believes that the original sales of new energy passenger cars in 2022 were expected to be 4.8 million units, and should now be adjusted to more than 5.5 million units, and the penetration rate of new energy passenger cars has reached about 25%. New energy vehicles are expected to exceed 6 million units, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is about 22%. With the significant increase in domestic consumers' recognition of the new energy market and the stability of policy subsidies, it is bound to promote the surge in China's total sales of new energy vehicles in 2022 and continue to maintain the leading position of more than 50% of the world's super share.
(Source: Sina Technology)
Editor: Han Luying