Some time ago, an introduction material was made on the electric vehicle observer, and there is a core problem that the demand expansion and expansion of electric vehicles is rapidly improving, and whether the overall battery industry chain can keep up. As shown in the chart below, the current global demand for electric vehicles (passenger cars) has rapidly doubled from 3 million in 2020 to 6 million, and it is not a problem to break through 8 million next year according to this trend, and it may grow to 18 million in just 4 years by 2025.
#图1. The growth of electric vehicles worldwide
That is to say, on this basis, the amount of battery used, the global power battery installed capacity will exceed 300GWh in 2021, and will be significantly higher than 800GWh by 2025.
#图2. According to this appeal, the demand for batteries is measured
Need to pay attention to the thing, in fact, China's power battery companies in the expansion of this matter is unambiguous, from the existing amount has been rapidly increased to a large scale, the core question is, the battery materials required for batteries are sufficient?
#表1. The production capacity of major domestic battery factories
According to a normal car, the actual demand for battery materials is mainly decomposed into nickel, cobalt, lithium, according to the previous calculations. Lithium iron phosphate enterprises, their statement is that 1GWh lithium iron phosphate battery needs 2000-2500 tons of cathode material, and 1 ton of lithium iron phosphate material needs about 0.25 tons of lithium carbonate.
○ From a microscopic point of view:
60kWh lithium iron phosphate battery, a car needs 30kg lithium carbonate.
○ From a macro perspective:
That is to say, if we calculate according to 60kWh per car, 100,000 vehicles 6GWh, 1 million 60GWh, the corresponding demand for lithium carbonate is as high as 30,000 tons. According to the calculation of China's lithium carbonate output in 2020 of 166,000 tons, an increase of 4.4% year-on-year, of which the output of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 106,000 tons and the output of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 60,000 tons. That is to say, 100,000 tons of battery-grade lithium carbonate, all to do lithium iron phosphate batteries correspond to 200GWh.
#图3. The amount of vehicle used by the IEA for different chemical systems
(Here is the amount of lithium metal used)
Take Tesla's LG product as an example, 51.75kWh, according to the disassembly point of view, the weight of the battery cell is 201.68kg, the corresponding nickel weight is 65.57kg, and the weight of cobalt is 4.8kg.
○ Nickel
Since the nickel of the battery only accounts for about 5% of the total nickel used, this direction increases with this demand, and it has little impact on the total demand.
#图4. Nickel is actually not lacking
○ Lithium
From the current point of view, the demand for lithium resources is mainly structured, and the overall supply and demand are not balanced.
#图5. Minmetals Securities for 2007-2021 YTD, re-order
Two large cycles of lithium product prices (USD/ton)
I think it is very interesting that we can develop the balance of demand for battery materials and can borrow from the aluminum aspect. The recycled aluminum industry in overseas developed countries has developed relatively maturely and has built a complete closed-loop industrial chain. Recycled aluminum is an aluminum product produced from scrap materials (new scrap aluminum) produced during the processing of aluminum or scrap aluminum (old scrap aluminum) recycled in scrap aluminum products. From the perspective of the proportion of recycled aluminum production in the total output of aluminum, the proportion of recycled aluminum production in Japan in 2019 has been close to 100%, the United States is close to 80%, and Europe is close to 60%, ranking a high level in the world.
#图6. Aluminum this industry is currently new in the country,
Developed countries have entered a circular economy
#图7. Recycling in developed countries (2019)
In fact, the battery of the electric vehicle is also a warehouse, and in general, the capacity of the vehicle power battery is less than 80% and the capacity can no longer be used in the car. Vehicle power batteries can be used in cascades, and after this stage, the scrap batteries can enter the recycling process. In this regard, it is necessary to ensure that the battery will not cause great pollution to the environment in the middle of life, and the materials in the battery can also be recycled, which achieves a certain cycle of battery material regeneration and supports the sustainable development of electric vehicles.
#图8. The recycling path of the power battery
Summary: Overall, the material of the battery can be recycled in the path, which also provides us with a continuous and stable impetus for the development of electric vehicles.