Source: Securities Times Reporter: Han Zhongnan
In 2021, China's auto industry has gone through an extraordinary year, under the influence of multiple factors such as the epidemic and chip shortage, raw material rise, etc., China's auto market continues to heat up in crises and challenges, and the market as a whole shows a performance beyond expectations, especially the new energy vehicle market, which is a bright color that cannot be ignored.
Looking ahead, what will be the trend of China's auto market in 2022? It has become one of the most concerned topics in the entire industry. On December 14, the "2022 China Auto Market Development Forecast Summit and Investment Cooperation Conference" hosted by the Sichuan Provincial Department of Economy and Information Technology and sponsored by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers was held in Yibin, Sichuan.
At the summit site, representatives from government departments, industry associations, universities, enterprises, etc. gathered together to discuss the hot spots of the automobile market and make important judgments on the trend of China's automobile market in 2022.
Fu Bingfeng, executive vice president and secretary general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, pointed out that in 2021, market consumer demand will continue to show a trend of quality improvement and upgrading, and the overall production and sales of automobiles will still maintain steady growth and show many bright spots.
Highlight 1: The performance of new energy vehicles is eye-catching, maintaining rapid growth and continuously improving penetration rate. In the first 11 months, the cumulative production exceeded 3 million units, and the sales volume was close to 3 million units. Full-year sales are expected to reach 3.4 million units, up 1.6 times year-on-year. The marketization of new energy vehicles has entered a new stage of explosive growth, and has shifted from being mainly policy-driven in the past to being market-driven.
Highlight 2: Automobile exports have grown rapidly, accelerating into overseas markets. Exports are expected to exceed 2 million units for the full year.
Highlight 3: The market share of Chinese brand passenger cars has increased significantly compared with the same period. Chinese brands sold more than 8.4 million passenger cars in the first 11 months, accounting for more than 44% of total passenger car sales, returning to an all-time high.
In Fu Bingfeng's view, a new round of scientific and technological revolution is empowering the transformation of the automobile industry, the new development pattern of the double cycle is also accelerating the reconstruction of the automobile industry, with the continuous improvement of people's living standards, the future of the automobile market prospects are still very broad, just need is still huge, and China's automobile market will also usher in a better period of development.
Chen Bin, executive vice president of the China Machinery Industry Federation, believes that stepping up the construction of a safe and controllable industrial chain is the key to the healthy development of the automobile market next year.
Total vehicle sales in China expected to increase by 5.4% year-on-year in 2022
Public information shows that since 2016, the "China Auto Market Development Forecast Summit" has been successfully held for six sessions, and its professional and authoritative prediction has important guiding significance for the future trend of China's auto market.
At this year's forecast summit, Chen Shihua, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, made a comprehensive and in-depth study on the development of China's auto market in 2022.
He believes that overall, China's auto market will maintain a moderate growth trend in the future. From the perspective of long-term development, the current Chinese market is still in the transition stage from the early stage of popularization to the late stage of popularization, and the sales of new cars have gradually shifted from the incremental market to the stock market. In his view, the current production and sales of China's automobile market are at the end of short-term adjustment, and will maintain a moderate growth trend in the future.
According to the forecast of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, china's total automobile sales in 2021 will be 26.1 million units, an increase of 3.1% year-on-year. Among them, the sales of new energy vehicles were 3.4 million units, an increase of 1.5 times year-on-year.
Looking forward to 2022, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers predicts that china's total automobile sales in 2022 will be 27.5 million units, an increase of 5.4% year-on-year, of which passenger car sales will be 23 million units, an increase of 8% year-on-year; commercial vehicle sales will be 4.5 million units, down 6% year-on-year; and new energy vehicle sales will be 5 million units, an increase of 47% year-on-year.
Authoritative institutions and mainstream car companies take the pulse of the market trend in this way
In addition to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) giving a prejudgment of the auto market trend in 2022, representatives from industry institutions, universities and enterprises also put forward their own insights and prospects around the future market trend, especially the trend of the new energy vehicle market.
Among them, Wang Qing, deputy director of the Market Economy Research Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council, predicted that automobile demand is expected to continue to rise slightly in 2022, with automobile sales of about 27 million vehicles, an increase of 3%-5% year-on-year, maintaining a pattern of low and high throughout the year. New energy vehicles have become the highlight and new growth point of automobile consumption and even the entire consumption, maintaining a compound growth rate of 60% since 2015.
Lin Huaibin, head of sales forecasting of light vehicles in China at IHS Markit, believes that the development of new energy vehicles in China has ushered in a turning point for fuel vehicles. At the same time, it should be noted that while the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles is rapidly increasing, the market penetration rate of automatic driving is also increasing rapidly. If the chip can be stably supplied, the market share of China's new energy vehicles will account for 17%-18% in 2022.
Bai Ling, an industry research expert at the Product Planning Department of Chongqing Chang'an, believes that the new energy vehicle market in 2022 will gradually convert from "barbell type" to "spindle shape", and it is expected that in 2022, driven by the compact market, the proportion of the vehicle market of 100,000-200,000 yuan will gradually increase; it is expected that the retail sales growth rate of narrow passenger cars will be 6.0% in 2022, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will be 18.9%.
Xiong Tianbo, director of BYD's passenger car industry office, predicted the development of the new energy vehicle market in 2022 as a local variable and a promising prospect. Among them, the "four new" are worth paying attention to: first, the new inflection point: the growth of the new energy automobile industry is in line with the "S-shaped curve", and 10%-15% is the rapid upward inflection point; the second is the new cognition: the new wave of domestic goods, the rise of independent new energy is just in time; the third is new growth: the new energy camp is expanding, and diversified products focus on various segments to meet more diversified needs; fourth, the new service: the omni-channel era is strongly attacked, and a new consumer experience is built. It is expected that the total number of new energy passenger vehicles will reach 5 million to 5.2 million in 2022.
Mei Songlin, vice president of strategic operation of WM Automobile Group, believes that the market has shown four major development trends: first, the penetration rate of electric vehicles has increased significantly, and the electric vehicle market is close to the inflection point and flashpoint; second, the proportion of To B in the electric vehicle market has dropped significantly; third, the mainstream market for electric vehicles is rising; fourth, local forces have seized this wave of opportunities. He also believes that the key success factors of the new category are product disruption, model innovation, market education, solving new problems and big data iteration.