Due to safety and cost advantages, lithium iron phosphate is favored by more and more car companies: lithium iron phosphate battery loading volume leads the ternary battery for five consecutive months.
At present, lithium iron phosphate has completed the full transcendence of ternary batteries, and under the expectation of price increases, the "expansion tide" has risen.
Lithium iron phosphate battery loading rises 145.3% in November
According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers in November power battery data: from January to November, China's power battery production accumulated 188.1GWh, an increase of 175.5% year-on-year. Among them, the output of lithium iron phosphate batteries accumulated 105.3GWh, accounting for 56.0% of the total output, an increase of 275.7% year-on-year.
In terms of loading volume, in November 2021, China's power battery loading volume was 20.8GWh, up 96.2% year-on-year and 35.1% month-on-month. Among them, lithium iron phosphate batteries loaded a total of 11.6GWh, up 145.3% year-on-year and 37.2% month-on-month.
It can be seen that in November, whether it is production or growth rate, the loading and production of lithium iron phosphate batteries have left ternary batteries behind.
Since the beginning of this year, the proportion of iron and lithium installed capacity has continued to increase, and the proportion of iron and lithium has exceeded three yuan since July, and has continued to remain at about 55%-60%. In 2018-2020, the loading volume of domestic lithium iron phosphate batteries is lower than that of ternary batteries, and the market share of lithium iron phosphate batteries last year was 38%, far lower than the market share of 61% of ternary batteries.
Since 2020, BYD's power battery projects in many parts of the country are also almost all lithium iron phosphate "blade battery" projects, and Ewell Lithium Energy, Ruipu Energy, and Honeycomb Energy are also actively increasing the production capacity layout of lithium iron phosphate.
Tesla's third quarterly report shows that the model3, ModelY, and standard mileage versions of the model3 and ModelY produced in the Shanghai factory will use lithium iron phosphate batteries to replace ternary lithium batteries and sell them worldwide. Some overseas car manufacturers such as Volkswagen and Daimler have also begun to bid for lithium iron phosphate models.
Tesla's domestic standard endurance version model Y this year also switched to lithium iron phosphate batteries.
On October 21, it was announced that the standard endurance version of the model will use lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries to replace the previous ternary lithium batteries, while the long-range version will continue to use ternary lithium batteries.
Caixin Securities expects that as many car companies represented by Tesla choose lithium iron phosphate batteries for matching, it is expected that the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate in China will account for 60% in 2025; while overseas will also reach 20%, and it is expected that the global medium- and long-term penetration rate of lithium iron phosphate is expected to reach 35%. It is foreseeable that lithium iron phosphate batteries with the advantages of cost, stability and safety will be favored by all parties for a long time.
Phosphorus chemical index up 121.92% during the year
As of December 13, the Wind Phosphorus Chemical Index closed at 1810.07 points, up 121.92% this year, ranking at the forefront of the concept sector gains, far greater than the 5.99% increase of the Shanghai Securities.
Huachuang Securities expects that the global demand for lithium iron phosphate production will reach 2.17 million tons in 2025, with a compound growth rate of 60% in 4 years, and the corresponding market space is expected to reach 83.8 billion yuan.
East Asia Qianhai Securities said that the traditional phosphorus chemical industry belongs to the cyclical industry, and there is a certain cyclicality in the prosperity. The valuation of the new energy material track is high, and after the traditional phosphorus chemical enterprises cut into the new energy material track, they can not only increase the profitability of the enterprise, but also improve the valuation level, and pay attention to the high-quality phosphorus chemical enterprises with phosphate ore resources.
The lithium iron phosphate industry chain is expanding
Affected by demand, since 2021, all kinds of capital have invested heavily in lithium iron phosphate.
Domestic battery companies have laid out more iron and lithium production lines, such as Ningde Times, BYD, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Ruipu Energy, etc.; traditional ternary battery enterprises Honeycomb Energy, Fu Neng Technology, Sunwoda and other battery companies have also begun to build or have produced iron lithium batteries.
In addition, the industry leaders in the fields of titanium dioxide and phosphorus chemical industry (Xinyangfeng, Yuntianhua, Hubei Yihua, Fulin Seiko) have successively invested large sums of money across borders.
Edited by: JUNTAO