The purchase price of Shandong deep processing has fallen below 1.1 yuan, which is too "spicy for eyes"! Shandong Linqing Dejin corn fell to 1.097 yuan, Shandong Xiangrui Pharmaceutical fell to 1.095 yuan, Shandong Dazecheng Biology fell to 1.083 yuan, and Shandong Chengwu fell to 1.078 yuan. This posture looks very clear, and it will attack 1 yuan with all its might!
The fall of corn not only made everyone staggered, but also directly fell to the point that it has ruined the three views. In other words, only you can't think of it, and you can't fall down. There are no more stories to tell in the whole market, no matter how beautiful the melody is, and no one dances to the music - the increase in production has greatly exceeded all expectations.
During this time, Henan corn became the "chewing gum" of the entire market, but its neighbor Shanxi, few people mentioned it. This year is a year of more than expected increase in yield, thanks to seed improvement, weather help and other factors, the corn yield in Shanxi Province is very amazing, not only high bulk density (750~760 are sprinkled with water), but also the yield is super high, low toxin, and Jilin, Xinjiang.
It can be seen that the price of corn in the 2023 quarter has fallen like this grandma bear, the biggest, most direct and most fundamental factor - excessive production, and nothing else, and this scene is the same as that year (2015), which makes people feel cold in the back. If you want to stop or hold the sharp decline in corn prices, you can only hope that the state will take action, so in the short term, there is no solution to the rise in corn.
Hello friends, today is April 29, 2024, the sound of falling, the dream is broken, I believe that the deep processing enterprises in North China have also been in a state of confusion, and the decline of prices is not what they expected. As for the main supplier, North China traders have suffered a defeat in confidence - there is no minimum, only lower.
It is not an exaggeration to describe the entire domestic corn market with a wail, and there is absolutely no exaggeration, because the increase in national production is real. It is precisely because of this that the boss has been working hard to support the market.
From the perspective of the national market, all farmers and traders in the Northeast are happy to multiply, and all this is thanks to the increase in reserves. At the same time, the third batch of open warehouse acquisitions in Jilin began to increase one after another, and the price and intensity were not low.
But those who expect the price of corn to drop by a few cents, excuse me, why are you so rude? Don't forget that corn is grain, not gold. In particular, corn traders in North China should not be overly bearish on corn prices, because the state has been deploying to increase reserves in North China.
According to internal sources: "Now the storage points in North China are required to take stock of the remaining storage capacity as soon as possible, and according to the storage task arrangement, they should collect and collect all the natural dry corn surplus grain at the grassroots level in North China before mid-May." It is strictly required to control the dried grain in the purchase of grain merchants, focus on guiding the corn market to rebound and return to a reasonable price range, and ensure the enthusiasm of spring planting. ”
Moreover, after entering May, the breeding companies in North China began to exert force, although it was not as obvious as last year, but from all aspects of feedback, the purchase volume and enthusiasm for corn have improved.
The next topic, which is very important, note that this is not for hype – the weather.
The National Climate Center announced that the El Niño event will end in April 2024, and multiple models and data suggest that it will officially end in May, with a high probability of turning into a La Niña event in the summer.
Over the course of an El Niño decay, precipitation will be on the high side. Coincidentally, 2015 was also a very strong El Niño event, during which the prices of agricultural commodities, especially corn, soybeans and wheat, were very volatile.
The El Niño phenomenon began in June 1997, when the Thai baht fell below its dollar-pegged exchange rate, triggering the Asian financial crisis and eventually spreading to the world, and the 1997-1998 El Niño was arguably the strongest in history and the El Niño phenomenon that led to the decline in the inflation-adjusted spot prices of agricultural products.
In addition, in 1997 and 1998, commodity prices generally plummeted, including a sharp drop in oil prices. This similar market can be traced back to 1972-1973 and 1982-1983.
On the other hand, in the futures market, every time the El Niño phenomenon is formed, it suddenly enters a premium, resulting in a decrease in the return of holding and trading long futures positions, which is exactly the same as our current futures market. In particular, corn futures were affected by the El Niño phenomenon, and the premium increased.
For farmers and traders, the above statement is simply nonsense, you can check the report "Will the anti-El Niño phenomenon cause turmoil in agricultural markets?". Much of the content is part of a forward-looking article published in the USDA's macro data report.
It can be seen that the price fluctuation of agricultural products is affected by many factors, and weather is one of the most important and non-negligible factors.
In June last year, the editor published an article on how much impact the weather has on agriculture, and also told everyone to guard against the impact of sudden and bad weather on agriculture in 2024, because the floods all appeared in the summer of the second year of El Niño, but the articles were basically sunk into the sea.
Because most people's cognition will only be paid attention to during the planting, harvesting and selling of grain, and the rest seems to have nothing to do with everyone. There is no way, the audience is different, it can only be said to be a kind of helplessness.
Please note: Xiaobian is not here to sell anxiety, relying on the weather to eat is the status quo that we cannot change at the moment, changes in the weather will directly affect the yield and income of our crops, the current Northeast has already appeared in the cold weather, some of the corn that has been planted, whether it will be affected, no one knows.
Here comes a very paradoxical idea: if the weather is bad, the price of food will rise, but for the farmer, it is undoubtedly a very cruel injury. Even if the price skyrockets by 100 yuan per catty, your grain will decrease or be cut off, and how much it will rise has nothing to do with you, and it will affect food security.
On the other hand, if the weather is average, grain prices will be relatively stable, which is undoubtedly a harm to traders, and will be subject to bumper yields and market suffering. Spear and shield, right and wrong, there is no solution. (Personal opinion, for reference only, does not represent correct, all nonsense)
The latest corn prices in the country on April 29, 2024
Anwei COFCO Biochemical: 2150 yuan, 50 yuan.
COFCO Suzhou, Anhui: 1.075 yuan, 1.045 yuan for the second rice, down 1 point.
Shanxi Xinzhou directly under the library Yuanping Branch: the first class 2370 yuan, the second class 2350 yuan, the third class 2330 yuan, 10 yuan.
Henan Feitian starch: 1.105 yuan, down 5 cents.
Henan Mengzhou Golden Corn: 1.105 yuan, down 5%.
Henan (Zhumadian) Jin Yufeng: 1.128 yuan, down 2 cents.
Hebei Pengyuan starch: 1.17 yuan, down 5 cents.
Hebei Ningjin Yufeng: 1.107 yuan in the first district, 1.112 yuan in the second district and 4th district, down 5 percent.
Hebei Guangyu starch: net weight ≥ 20 tons 1.127 yuan, net weight < 20 tons 1.117 yuan, down 3 cents.
Shandong lemon biochemistry: 1.21 yuan, down 5 cents.
Shandong Rice Energy Biology: 1.11 yuan, down 5 percent.
Shandong Zhucheng Yuanfa: 1.123 yuan, down 3%.
Shandong Xiangrui Pharmaceutical: 1.095 yuan, down 1 point.
Shandong Seven Star Lemon: 1.143 yuan, down 5 cents.
Shandong Ronghai grain: 1.145 yuan, down 5 cents.
Shandong Xiwang starch: 1.165 yuan, down 5 cents.
Shandong Yishui land: 1.115 yuan, down 5 centimeters.
Shandong Hengren Industry and Trade: 1.11 yuan, Shao Tuan library 1.11 yuan, down 5%.
Shandong Fuyang Biological: 1.124 yuan, down 2 percent. The first drop price.
Shandong Fuyang Biological: 1.12 yuan, down 4 percent. The second drop price. A total of 6 percent.
Shandong Youth Aid Food: 1.12 yuan, down 5 percent. The first drop price.
Shandong Youth Aid Food: 1.115 yuan, down 5 percent. The second drop price. A total of 1 point is lost.
Shandong Heyang Biological: 1.129 yuan, down 3%. The first drop price.
Shandong Heyang Biology: 1.125 yuan, down 4%. The second drop price. A total of 7 percent.
Shandong Feicheng Fukuan: 1.109 yuan, down 3 cents. The first drop price.
Shandong Feicheng Fukuan: 1.104 yuan, down 5%. The second drop price. A total of 8 percent.
Shandong Baolingbao Biological: 1.124 yuan, down 3 percent. The first drop price.
Shandong Baolingbao Biological: 1.12 yuan, down 4 percent. The second drop price. A total of 7 percent.
Shandong Xiangchi Jianyuan: 1.13 yuan, down 1 point. The first drop price.
Shandong Xiangchi Jianyuan: 1.125 yuan, down 5%. The second drop price. A total of 1.5 points were awarded.
Shandong Linqing De golden corn: 1.1 yuan, down 5 cents. The first drop price.
Shandong Linqing Dejin corn: 1.097 yuan, down 3 cents. The second drop price. A total of 8 percent.
Shandong Binzhou Jinhui corn: 1.1 yuan within 18 moisture, 1.095 yuan above 18 moisture, 5 centi.
Shandong Chengwu land: 1.08 yuan below 20 moisture, 1.07 yuan for 20~25 moisture, 1.045 yuan above 25 moisture, 5 centi. The first drop price.
Shandong Chengwu land: 1.078 yuan below 20 moisture, 1.068 yuan for 20~25 moisture, 1.043 yuan above 25 moisture, 2 centi. The second drop price. A total of 7 percent.
Shandong Dazecheng Biological: 1.085 yuan below 20 moisture, 1.075 yuan for 20~25 moisture, 1.055 yuan above 25 moisture, 5 centi. The first drop price.
Shandong Dazecheng Biology: 1.083 yuan below 20 moisture, 1.073 yuan for 20~25 moisture, 1.053 yuan above 25 moisture, 5 centi. The second drop price. A total of 1 point is lost.
Jiliang Group: 1.11 yuan for the third class and 1.095 yuan for the fourth class, up 5%.
Jilin Changchun Dahe Biology: 16 dry food moisture is 2270 yuan for the second class, 2260 yuan for the third class, and 10 yuan. The tide grain 16 moisture above 2250 yuan, the third class 2230 yuan, the price unchanged.
Heilongjiang Bei'an Huahe Agriculture: 15 water dry food 2230 yuan.
Heilongjiang Hailun State Investment: 57.5% ≤ starch < 60% price of crushed corn 0.91375 yuan, 56% ≤ starch < 57.5% price 0.889 yuan, 54.5% ≤ starch < 56% price 0.86425 yuan, 53% ≤ starch < 54.5% price 0.8395 yuan, 51.5% ≤ starch < 53% price 0.81475 yuan, 50% ≤ starch < 51.5% price 0.79 yuan. Drop 1 point.