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More than half of May, in the domestic agricultural product market, recently, a variety of agricultural product price trends gradually clear, among them, the pig market, although the pig price is in the off-season of consumption, but, guided by emotions, the breeding end has a strong price operation, pig prices show a contrarian trend! In the grain market, the trend of grain prices is differentiated, among them, corn shows a unilateral upward trend, while the wheat market is under pressure to fall, so, what happened to the market? The specific analysis is as follows:
First, the price of corn rose unilaterally!
At present, the grassroots surplus grain is only less than 1 percent, the surplus grain is reduced, and the channel price mentality has become stronger, in particular, the price of corn in the outer disk has strengthened, and the domestic corn contract quotation has risen sharply, which has also driven the operation of the main body of grain to raise the price, intensified the sentiment of the main body of grain construction, and the spot corn has shown a unilateral upward trend!
From the analysis of institutional data, in terms of domestic producing areas, in the Northeast market, corn spot quotations generally rose, among them, Hailun Guotou rose 1 point, Bei'an Xiangyu rose 1 point, Longfeng corn, Suihua Haotian, Jingliang Longjiang, Tongliao Meihua, Kailu Yuwang rose 0.5 points, Heijiliao area, corn spot quotation is generally 1.075 ~ 1.183 yuan / catty!
At present, the surplus grain in the Northeast has bottomed out, and the channel inventory is higher, however, due to the cost of warehousing, the channel price sentiment is stronger, and with the strengthening of the external corn, the cost of domestic imported corn has risen, the domestic corn procurement in the southern sales area has increased, and the outgoing orders in the Northeast port have improved, which has further driven the mentality of the local channel to raise the price, and some enterprises have reduced the arrival in front of the door, and the quotation has gradually increased!
In the North China market, recently, only two or three hundred cars arrived in front of the Shandong factory, the amount of enterprises has decreased sharply, the channel is supported by the cost and the bullish mentality of the market outlook has become stronger, the sentiment of reluctance to sell is higher, and the company has passively raised prices to stimulate the volume, in particular, there is a gap in the long-term supply of corn, and the willingness of enterprises to build warehouses has increased, and the price of spot corn has generally risen!
Among them, in Shandong, Yishui Dadi, Shandong Luzhou, Zoucheng Rice Energy, Zhucheng Xingmao, Zaozhuang Hengren, Linqing Golden Corn, Zouping Xiwang, Binzhou Ronghai Grain, Binzhou Jinhui, Heze Dazecheng Biology, Zhucheng Yuanfa, etc., the listed price of enterprises rose by 0.3~1 points, the mainstream corn price in Shandong was 1.129~1.245 yuan, and most enterprises quoted at 1.135~1.19 yuan/catty!
Second, wheat prices are under pressure and falling!
At present, the new wheat listing starts, Hubei region, the new wheat price is low open and low, in particular, the quality of the new wheat listing is uneven, the moisture is large, the grassroots and enterprise listing prices continue to fall, the local mainstream enterprises listed at 1.2 yuan / catty, the grassroots loading price is only 1.15 yuan / catty!
By the new wheat price is expected to be stronger, the mentality of milling enterprises to cautiously replenish the warehouse is heating up, the price of new wheat is also on the market, the price has a slight downward trend, Shandong, Henan and some provinces and regions of Jiangsu, the listed price of milling enterprises generally hovers around 1.23 ~ 1.26 yuan / catty!
Weakened by the price of new wheat, flour consumption is in the cyclical off-season, milling enterprises have poor demand for replenishment of old wheat, superimposed, local grain depot wheat rotation is positive, and the pressure of strong market supply and demand is highlighted, Shandong, Hebei and Henan regions, the listed price of old wheat continues to decline, and the price range of mainstream enterprises is 0.5~1.5 cents/jin, of which, the price of wheat in Shandong is 1.255~1.32 yuan/jin; Hebei wheat is quoted at 1.265~1.285 yuan, and Henan wheat is quoted at 1.255~1.315 yuan/jin!
In the short term, due to the gradual increase in the listing of new wheat, the price of new wheat may fluctuate downward, which will also inhibit the performance of the wheat market, and the price of old wheat will also fluctuate lower, however, due to the low raw grain inventory of flour enterprises, high-quality wheat still needs to be replenished.
Third, pig prices are strong against the trend!
In the pig market, at present, pig prices show a bottoming out trend, from the perspective of supply and demand performance, on the supply side, due to the early pig farm disease, retail pig farm production capacity loss more, superimposed, sow inventory to decarbonize, this month the social pig supply pressure is not large, retail pig farms have a strong price reluctant to sell sentiment. However, the group's pig slaughter plan this month increased slightly, due to the poor completion of the slaughter plan of the scale pig enterprises in April, part of the production capacity was postponed after the slaughter in May, and the slaughter plan of the scale pig enterprises this month increased slightly by 5.1% month-on-month, however, due to the expectation of strong pig prices, the group pig enterprises maintained the operation of the slaughter at a high price, and the panic mentality was weak!
In terms of consumer demand, at present, the lack of substantial benefits in consumption, the lack of support for household consumption and group consumption, the poor delivery of fresh white strips, the high loss margin of slaughtering enterprises, the strong mentality of price reduction, and the pressure of continued constraints on the consumer side!
However, due to the cautious mentality of the breeding end, recently, there is a phenomenon of concentrated two breeding in the northern region, which further drives the sentiment of the breeding end of the price, the market bullish atmosphere is strong, the pig price is supported by the emotion, and the price shows a strong situation against the trend!
According to data analysis, by the slaughtering enterprises to adjust the price of pigs, on May 16, the price of pigs rose by 0.12 yuan, the price of pigs rose to 15.18 yuan / kg, the domestic market showed a general upward trend, the northern region, pig prices rose across the board, the market center of gravity has gradually rebounded, in the north and south regions, the price of live pigs is generally around 14.1 ~ 15.95 yuan / kg, Xinjiang quotation is the lowest, Zhejiang, Shanghai and Guangdong quotation is about to rise above 16 yuan / kg!
Personally, I believe that due to the support of the second breeding and the breeding end of the price, pig prices have risen against the trend, however, due to the lack of consumption support, and the group pig enterprises have more monthly slaughter plans, it is expected that there are signs of high slaughter at the breeding end, pig prices or will continue to rise and fall in the trend of see-sawing, the next 1~3 days, pig prices still have the risk of rising and falling!