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It's "a piece of red" again! In the domestic pig market, recently, pig prices have shown a volatile situation, the trend of strong market operation is highlighted, although the factors restricting the rebound of pig prices are still there, but, under the support of emotions, pig prices show a trend of rising against the trend!
According to data analysis, on May 16, 2024, the average price of three-yuan lean pigs outside the country was 15.18 yuan/kg, up 0.12 yuan from yesterday, and the pig price showed a trend of stopping and rising. The specific analysis is as follows:
Judging from the market feedback, in the seven pig producing areas in the north and south of the country, among them, in the Heijiliao area, the price of live pigs rose to 7.2~7.8 yuan/jin, the price of the North China market rose to 7.4~8 yuan/jin, and the price of the northwest market was 7.2~7.8 yuan. In the southwest market, the price of Sichuan and Chongqing is 7.4~7.7 yuan, the price of Shandong and Anhui is 7.6~8.1 yuan, the price of Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 7.7~8.1 yuan, the price of Henan is 7.5~7.9 yuan, and the price of live pigs in the two regions is 7.3~8.2 yuan/catty!
At present, pig prices are showing a contrarian upward trend, and the logic supporting the rise in pig prices is as follows:
From the perspective of consumer demand, at present, domestic pork consumption has followed up in general, and household consumption demand has been weak, but the support of urban consumption has become slightly stronger, especially the weather has become hotter, and the phenomenon of outdoor dining has increased, which has increased sales! In the mainstream consumer cities in China, in Beijing, the transaction price of white pigs rose by 0.2~0.3 yuan, the market purchase and sales performance was average, and the white strips were generally in stock. From the perspective of the Shanghai market, the current mainstream white strip to undertake the quotation in 18.7 ~ 19.5 yuan / kg, by the wholesale market volume reduction, part of the market purchase and sales enthusiasm has been improved!
From a rational point of view, at present, pork consumption is still in the positive off-season, the downstream market purchase and sales performance is average, the increase in family and group consumption is limited, the domestic slaughtering enterprises maintain a low level of performance, the demand level for pigs is average, and the mainstream slaughtering enterprises are mainly based on sales and production!
From the point of view of pig slaughter, due to the impact of the early production capacity of pig farms and the pig farm disease at the end of last year, the north and south regions of China, especially in East China, Central China and North China, the pressure of slaughter at the breeding end is weak, and the pace of slaughter of pigs from the social surface has slowed down, which also boosts the market's expectations for the prospect of pig prices. Superimposed, the empty pens of local pig farms in many places are high, and the second breeding still has the phenomenon of rushing to buy standard pigs, and slaughtering enterprises are facing a certain pressure of "lack of pigs"!
Therefore, under many factors, pig prices against the trend strengthened, the price showed a gradual upward trend, at present, in the north and south of the country, pig prices show a "break 7 rush 8" situation, in most of East China, Beijing and Tianjin and some areas of Guangdong, high-priced pig sources rose above 8 yuan / catty, the national average price of live pigs rose to 7.59 yuan / catty, there is still a certain distance from the comprehensive break 8, then, May pig prices can "break 7 into 8"?
Personally, I believe that the bullish sentiment in the stage market is strong, and the pig price may continue to fluctuate higher, but the rise in height may be suppressed, rationally speaking, at the end of the month, the pig price does not have the support of "breaking 7 into 8" in a comprehensive way!
On the one hand, the consumption support is insufficient, the downstream consumption lacks increment, in particular, the weather is gradually hot, the residents' desire to buy pork is declining, and the terminal pork is difficult to have a significant opportunity to improve. The domestic frozen pork inventory is at a high level of about 23.97%, the frozen product inventory level is high, and the catering and dine-in are mainly digested by frozen products, and the purchase and sale of pork may maintain the pressure of strong supply and weak demand!
On the other hand, this month, the social pig slaughter plan is general, however, the group pig enterprises have an incremental slaughter plan, superimposed, the price of standard pigs continues to rise, the cost of the second breeding column has increased significantly, the risk of two breeding or will be intensified, and affected by the price difference of standard fertilizer, the willingness of large pigs in the breeding end of the fence is not high, and the market has a situation of slaughter!
Therefore, the pig market is intertwined, the price or will show a trend of ups and downs, the center of gravity of pig prices in the shock slowly rising, at the end of the month pig prices or difficult to rise above 8 yuan / catty, focusing on the scale of pig slaughter rhythm and changes in the mood of the second breeding!