The article is original, unauthorized, please do not reprint, offenders will be investigated!
Oil prices "big drop", on May 16, the level of 92/95 gasoline prices at gas stations in various provinces and cities in China was reduced by price reduction!
It is reported that in the previous 10 working days, the domestic crude oil rate of change remained at -4.88%, gasoline and diesel prices were reduced by 235 yuan / ton and 225 yuan / ton, equivalent to the price increase, domestic oil products were reduced by 0.18 ~ 0.21 yuan / liter, according to the volume of 50 liters of private car fuel tank, the oil price reduction, residents fill up a tank of oil, it is estimated that it can spend 9 ~ 10.5 yuan less.
The oil price cut is the third decline in the year and the largest single drop in the year, but oil prices are still in a strong stage during the year. According to the author's calculations, in the process of 10 oil price adjustments completed during the year, among them, 5 oil prices rose, 3 oil prices fell, 2 oil prices stranded, and after the rise and fall deduction, domestic gasoline and diesel prices rose by 570 yuan and 550 yuan/ton respectively during the year!
Taking Shandong as an example, at 0:00 on May 16, No. 92 gasoline at local gas stations was lowered by 0.19 yuan to 7.96 yuan/liter, and No. 95 gasoline fell by 0.21 yuan to 8.54 yuan/liter; No. 98 gasoline fell 0.21 yuan to 9.26 yuan / liter; No. 0 diesel fell 0.19 yuan to 7.58 yuan / liter; -No. 10 diesel fell 0.2 yuan to 8.02 yuan / liter!
Among them, the price of No. 92 gasoline is still 0.45 yuan/liter higher than 7.51 yuan/liter during the New Year's Day, and according to the 50-liter volume of private cars, residents still need to spend 22.5 yuan more during the year......
At the same time, in terms of domestic agricultural products, the price of peanut market is showing a see-saw trend, while in the pig market, pig prices are strengthening against the trend, the specific analysis is as follows:
Peanut market: After the long holiday, due to poor demand follow-up, consumer demand deteriorated, traders' demand for replenishment decreased, the arrival of oil mills was insufficient, and the price increase stimulated the increase in volume, and with the increase in the quotation of oil mills, the supply of goods to the factory increased, and the price once again showed a see-saw performance!
According to the analysis of the institution, the previous week, the domestic price of finished peanuts fell by 800 ~ 1000 yuan, the market is based on the quality of the price, the price is relatively chaotic, some channels are upside down by the inventory price difference, the quotation is also relatively cautious, and with the price of the lower, the enthusiasm of the market to buy and sell has increased slightly, in the northeast and some parts of central China, the peanut price has become significantly stronger!
Among them, the price of currency rice in Henan market was 9200~9700 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2100 yuan/ton, and the price of Baisha currency rice in Jilin was 9700 yuan, up 100 yuan compared with the beginning of the month, down 2100 yuan/ton year-on-year!
At present, the domestic oil peanut quotation continues to be weak, on the one hand, the weather in the production area is gradually hot, which has a greater impact on the quality of peanuts, which also inhibits the enthusiasm of some enterprises to acquire, in Panjin part of the enterprise, the oil content of 43% large wire material quotation in 8100 yuan, down 350 yuan / ton; On the other hand, consumer demand is in the off-season, downstream purchases and sales are sluggish, and the market lacks effective support;
Personally, I believe that in the short term, the peanut market will still be dominated by weak shocks, in particular, the inventory of enterprises is relatively loose, and the demand for follow-up is poor, enterprises are mainly based on inventory consumption, the replenishment demand is not good, and the price will also be in the stage of weak shocks!
Pig market: At present, pig prices are once again showing a rising trend, although, after the previous pig price rise, the breeding end of the slaughter, the second breeding appeared cautious sentiment, pig prices fell briefly, but, due to the market bullish sentiment is high, under the pull of emotion, the breeding end has a strong price mentality, pig prices show a contrarian performance!
According to the analysis of institutional data, on May 16, the price of pigs rose by 0.12 yuan, and the price of slaughtering enterprises rose to about 15.18 yuan/kg, and the price of live pigs bucked the trend.
At present, to support the rise in pig prices, personal analysis, on the one hand, due to the enhancement of the sentiment of the second breeding, the grassroots feedback understands, Shandong, Hebei and Henan and other places, the local second breeding enthusiasm is high, the purchase of standard pigs is strong, the market has a certain "pig grab" phenomenon, and retail investors and group pig enterprises are bullish and reluctant to sell the mentality is higher, the appropriate weight of pigs slaughter shrinkage, some large factories have pulled up the slaughter operation; On the other hand, due to the bullish sentiment, the supply of live pigs has shrunk, the second breeding intercepts the source of pigs, the procurement pressure of slaughtering enterprises exists, and the mainstream slaughtering enterprises in the north and south have been forced to raise prices and ensure quantity, and the market sentiment is slightly stronger!
However, due to the pressure of consumption constraints, the lack of substantial benefits for pork consumption, and affected by the hot weather and the inversion of standard fertilizer, there is a mentality of selling pigs at high prices at the breeding end.
Therefore, under the guidance of emotion, the mentality of breeding end slaughter still exists, it is expected that pig prices will still rise and fall in the short term, and the price will show a trend of high-frequency shocks, however, due to the support of pig production capacity, the trend of pig prices is mainly shocking higher!