According to the analysis of institutional data, due to the impact of the sow herd on the production capacity of standard pigs after 10 months, last year, the domestic pig price ran at a low level for a long time, and the pace of pig production capacity was accelerated, especially due to factors such as epidemic disease and capital breakage, in the second half of last year, the sow herd was significantly accelerated! In this way, in May ~ December this year, the appropriate weight of the pig slaughter will show a downward trend month by month, especially, in 7~8 months, the pig slaughter further narrowed, pig prices or will show a month-by-month upward trend, the price into a cyclical rise stage!
After May Day, the traditional off-season of pork consumption, in particular, the standard fertilizer price spread is upside down, and there is a risk of large pigs concentrated in the breeding end, but the recent pig price has strengthened against the trend, which also reflects the consistency of the market bullish outlook and the reduction of the pressure on the supply of standard pigs!
According to institutional analysis, at present, the logic supporting the rise in pig prices is roughly as follows:
First, the pressure of pig slaughter is weak, although the group pig slaughter plan has increased this month, but, due to the bullish market trend, the group pig enterprise subscription mentality is not high. The retail pig farms are affected by the epidemic of pig farms in the early stage, the production capacity is greatly damaged, the phased supply is relatively tight, and the social pig source is less slaughtered, especially the supply of standard pigs is obviously tight!
Second, by the early pig farm disease and after the second breeding after the admission of large pigs have been slaughtered, the second breeding profit increases, the north and south regions, the proportion of the breeding end of the two breeding bars is higher, although, the cost of the stage of the pig has risen, but, due to the relatively low cost of feed, the prospect of pig prices is relatively optimistic, the confidence of the second breeding is still strong, and the second breeding in many places in the north is more common, which further boosts the confidence of the breeding end, and exacerbates the sentiment of the market price!
Therefore, with the support of many positive parties, pig prices have shown a trend of rising for the most part! However, from a rational point of view, the pig market is still facing constraints on the consumer side!
At present, pork consumption is relatively cold, all kinds of seasonal fruits and vegetables are on the market, and in terms of competing products, the prices of poultry, eggs and beef and mutton have dropped significantly year-on-year, pork prices are relatively firm, and residents have substituted consumption. However, the frozen pork inventory of slaughtering enterprises is high, the demand for segmentation and warehousing is poor, the loss margin of slaughtering enterprises is high, and the price reduction mentality still exists!
According to this analysis, although the pig price is showing a trend of rising, according to data analysis, the slaughterhouse price adjustment pigs, it is expected that on May 16, the pig price rose by 0.12 yuan, and the pig price rose to 15.18 yuan / kg, and the domestic market continued to rise in an all-round way!
However, in the short term, affected by consumption constraints, prices may maintain a see-saw trend, and the market outlook will pay attention to the changes in the rhythm of the group's pig slaughter!