The corn market has entered a cycle of "one-sided" growth......
Entering May, the price trend of spot corn has become significantly stronger, especially in the North China market, the level of grassroots volume has been declining, the arrival of enterprises in front of the door is less, the price increase has stimulated the phenomenon of increasing the volume, and the price of spot corn has continued to rise!
At present, the domestic autumn grain corn market has come to an end, and the surplus grain in the Northeast and North China markets has further declined, and the main body of grain has turned into a channel business!
Recently, in the external market, the international corn price has strengthened against the trend, which has also led to a sharp rise in the domestic corn contract quotation, and the corn 2407 contract quotation has risen to 2457 yuan/ton, compared with 2388 yuan/ton at the end of April, the increase is about 69 yuan/ton! The market's bullish mentality for forward corn prices has strengthened!
On the one hand, the willingness of the main demand to choose the opportunity to build a warehouse has increased, the undertaking of deep processing and feed enterprises has improved, and the mentality of replenishing low-priced corn has increased;
On the other hand, grain traders are bullish about the market outlook, and the sentiment of reluctance to sell at a high price is heating up, especially in the South China sales area, the cost of imported corn to Hong Kong has risen, and the demand for domestic corn purchase and sales has been boosted, which has also driven the market bullish sentiment!
However, from a rational point of view, although the rise of corn is the general trend, the rise will still be constrained by many factors!
For example, the downstream starch shipments of deep processing enterprises are slow, the operating rate of factories is gradually decreasing, and in the north and south regions, the temperature has risen sharply, the phenomenon of enterprise shutdown and maintenance has increased, and the level of corn consumption may have a slight decline. At this stage, the main body of mainstream grain use, the corn inventory level is relatively high, and the corn inventory level of some enterprises in Northeast China is still 35~40 days, and the pressure of grain shortage is not large, and the cautious mood is strong. In North China and Huanghuai markets, new wheat is about to be fully listed, and some corn grain holders still have the phenomenon of vacating the warehouse, which has a certain pressure on the rise of corn!
According to data analysis, on May 15, corn prices continued to rise fundamentally, among them, in terms of domestic deep processing enterprises, some companies rose prices 2~3 times a day, and corn generally rose by 0.5~1 cents/catty, the specific market is as follows:
Northeast market: Jingliang Longjiang rose 0.5 points, quoted at 1.14 yuan / catty; Inner Mongolia Yipin rose 0.5 points, quoted at 1.1825 yuan / catty; The average price of corn in Heijiliao, Inner Mongolia and ports is 1.109 yuan / catty!
Shandong market: In the morning, the amount of enterprises in front of the door was 215 cars, the company's grain source to the factory continued to maintain a low level, and the factory continued to rise most of the trend!
Chenming starch rose 0.5 points, and the execution price was 1.17 yuan / catty; Feicheng Fukuan rose 0.5 cents to 1.145 yuan, Yishui Qingyuan rose 1 cent to 1.16 yuan, Shouguang Golden Corn rose 0.5 cents to 1.17 yuan, Yishui Dadi rose 1 point to 1.175 yuan, Zou Cheng Xilai rose 1 point to 1.15 yuan, and Linqing Golden Corn rose 0.5 points to 1.137 yuan. Zaozhuang Hengren, Daze Cheng Biological, Heze Chengwu Dadi, Zouping Xiwang, Shandong Luzhou, Zhucheng Yuanfa, Binzhou Jinhui, etc., mainstream enterprises rose 0.3~1 points.
In Shandong, the average price of corn rose to 1.163 yuan/jin, compared with 1.118 yuan/jin at the end of April, the average spot price of corn this month rose by 90 yuan/ton, and the mainstream deep processing enterprises rose to 1.135~1.245 yuan/jin!
Personally, I believe that in the short term, the corn market may maintain a volatile situation, the bottom of the price support is strong, however, the rise is relatively slow, the market will pay attention to the changes in the new wheat production and the change in the opening scale, the change in the domestic corn purchase and sales sentiment!