Pig price adjustment: In the domestic pig market, pig prices have shown a see-saw trend in recent days, the market sentiment is relatively preferred, the decline in pig prices is difficult to sustain, and the bottom support is still strong!
On the one hand, due to the recent months of the contract price of pigs to maintain a high level, the breeding end of the pig price prospects are generally optimistic, at this stage of the pig fattening is in a narrow range of profitability stage, the breeding end of the wait-and-see price mentality is stronger, the social side and the group pig enterprises have obvious control of the mood, the market resistance to price reduction mentality is higher, the supply of live pigs is slightly tight;
On the other hand, the market bottom-buying mentality still exists, especially in the context of the strong trend of pig prices, although the cost of standard pig supplementation has risen, but the market supplement heat still exists! In particular, in East China, Central China and North China, due to the sharp decline in retail production capacity caused by the early pig farm disease, there are more Yukon bars, and the enthusiasm for supplementing the bars is stronger. The supply of standard pigs in local retail pig farms is small, and the market sentiment is higher than that of shrinking the market!
Therefore, based on the fundamentals of the purchase and sale of live pigs in the market, the stage of pig prices is mainly "easy to rise and difficult to fall", however, due to the low point of consumer demand, the loss pressure of slaughtering enterprises is greater, the price of pigs has limited room to rise, and the price is mainly volatile! The market outlook pays attention to the changes in the rhythm of the group's pig enterprises and the changes in the admission of the second breed!
Attached: May 16 pig price market
Oil price adjustment: it has fallen, it has fallen, oil prices have "fallen upside down", and the biggest drop in the year has come......
In 2024, in the first 9 oil price adjustment cycles completed, domestic oil prices will "rise more and fall less", and the prices of gasoline and diesel will rise by 805 yuan and 775 yuan/ton respectively after the deduction is completed, in particular, there will only be 2 reductions in the year, 50 yuan/ton in late January, and 70 yuan/ton at the end of April, with a single drop of less than 100 yuan/ton, and the conversion price will only be 0.05~0.07 yuan per reduction......
According to institutional data analysis, on May 15, the last working day of the 10th oil price end of this cycle, referring to yesterday's crude oil market, WTI crude oil quotation fell by $1.1 to $78.02, and Brent fell by $0.98 to $82.38 per barrel! International oil prices fell again, the rate of change of domestic crude oil hovered at --5.01%, this cycle, gasoline and diesel prices are estimated to fall by 235 yuan / ton and 225 yuan / ton, the conversion price of 92 / 95 gasoline is estimated to fall by 0.18 ~ 0.19 yuan, and some oil products will be lowered by 0.21 yuan......
This time the price of oil fell, according to the volume of 50 liters of private cars, residents are estimated to spend about 9~9.5 yuan less to fill up a tank of 92 gasoline, which will also be the largest single drop in the year, and it is a long-lost "continuous fall" after the last drop in oil prices!
According to the analysis of institutional data, after the fall in oil prices in this round, at 0:00 on May 16, the domestic No. 92 gasoline price may generally fall below 8 yuan/liter! Taking Shandong as an example, after the price change is completed, the price of No. 92 gasoline in Shandong may fall to about 7.96~7.98 yuan/liter, and the price of No. 92 gasoline in Beijing is estimated to fall to about 8~8.01 yuan/liter......
However, from a rational point of view, the price level of gasoline and diesel in various parts of the country is still high, and the actual price is subject to the gas station!
Personally, I believe that during this round of pricing cycle, international oil prices fell sharply, mainly due to the easing of the situation in the Middle East and the implementation of the current interest rate level by the Federal Reserve, the market's concern about the interruption of crude oil supply weakened, and the international oil prices fell sharply due to the deterioration of consumption expectations. Subsequently, due to Israel's entry into Rafah, fears of a recession in the United States increased the market's expectations for interest rate cuts, and the decline in crude oil prices was suppressed to a certain extent, but due to the frequent release of the possibility of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, this once again suppressed the performance of oil prices!
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