The lyrics of a song by Xue Zhiqian are written like this: "I should turn a blind eye to the performance that should cooperate with you." The explanation of this sentence on the Internet - I quietly watched you pretend to be X, and pretended not to understand.
In fact, the recent wheat market really has this characteristic, after entering April, more and more voices began to shout: "Wheat baboon, have food in your hands and flee quickly."
In fact, these relevant people are really afraid that everyone will lose money, but there are more people who are in order to sing down the price of wheat, and the flour companies that are now in the emergency room immediately grasped everyone's psychology and continued to lower the price for you.
At the same time, the price of wheat must fall to the protective price, otherwise it will not be able to dock with the price of new wheat, only the deeper it falls, the safer the traders, the more profitable the noodle enterprises, and so on. This argument is very much in line with the current market, and it is perfectly connected.
However, some regions have recently announced that it is strictly forbidden to use ration wheat for silage, but every year wheat will be used for feed production and processing. The role of silage is also feed, and the processing of feed is also used for feed, the same role, different statements, is there some paradox?
Hello friends, today is April 29, 2024, and during this time, the editor's articles have been in a state of "non-stop speech", and many traders think that all this is for the sake of traffic, all for the sake of "grandstanding".
But all this is a misunderstanding of myself, and there are four main reasons:
1. First of all, due to the rising price of wheat year after year, farmers have seen the economic benefits, and in order to pursue yields, they are intensively planting, which will increase lodging and diseases. As mentioned in the previous article, the whole wheat seems to be growing very well, but in some areas it can only be seen from a distance and cannot be touched closely, and various scabs have been highlighted.
2. Secondly, too many people expect that after the new wheat is put on the market, the price of the purchased farmers' gross grain will be in the range of 1.1~1.2 yuan. At the same time, the minimum protective price of third-grade wheat is 1.18 yuan, and such a price is to protect the peasants in a sudden market situation.
Again, wheat is a ration, not an ordinary cash crop, and we cannot fully understand it according to the laws of economy. The particularity of grain determines that it is necessary to understand not only economics but also politics.
3. In the past two days, the turnover rate of policy wheat has begun to increase, and the price has begun to increase. The floor price is about 2600 yuan, in other words, this is basically the price of new wheat on the market, and such a price means that the bottom range of wheat has been formed, and it is not excluded that individual markets in individual regions will be lower than this price, so those who expect the price of wheat to be between 1.1 ~ 1.2 yuan, it is simply open, just kidding!
4. Weather, strong convective weather blue warning: It is expected that from 14 o'clock on April 28 to 14 o'clock on the 29th, there will be 8-10 thunderstorms and strong winds or hail in parts of southeastern Gansu, southern Ningxia, southwestern Shaanxi, northern Shanxi, southeastern Anhui, southwestern Jiangsu, southeastern Hunan, southern Jiangxi, southeastern Zhejiang, western Fujian, eastern Sichuan, central and western Chongqing, eastern and northern Guizhou, and central and eastern Guangdong.
There will be short-term heavy precipitation in parts of northwest Shanxi, southern Anhui, southwestern Jiangsu, most of Hunan, Jiangxi, eastern Zhejiang, Fujian, central and eastern Guangdong, eastern Sichuan, central and western Chongqing, and northern Guizhou, with a maximum hourly rainfall of 30-50 mm, and locally up to more than 60 mm.
To sum up, this is the fundamental reason why I expect the price of wheat to rise undoubtedly, and it is very likely to shock your jaw. What has a low start-up rate, weak demand, and is a little brother in the face of the weather.
It is very important that the price of flour enterprises does not represent the price of Xinmai on the market. There are no experts in the market, only winners and losers, doing right is a winner, doing wrong is a loser, doing right the market rewards you, doing wrong the market punishes you, it's as simple as that. (Personal opinion, for reference only, does not represent correct, all nonsense)
The latest national wheat price on April 29, 2024
Shaanxi Xianyang Wudeli: 1.34 yuan, down 5%.
Yihai Kerry, Zhengzhou, Henan: 1.305 yuan, down 5%.
Henan Xinxiang Wudeli: 1.313 yuan for the new factory, 1.303 yuan for the old factory, down 5 percent.
Shandong Leling Luqing flour: 1.3 yuan of net grain for large cars, 1.29 yuan for small cars.