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Halfway through May, in the domestic grain and pig market, grain prices have "changed the day", corn and wheat trends are differentiated, among them, the corn market trend is rising, the price bottom support is gradually consolidated, and the wheat market is under pressure to fall, and the purchase and sales sentiment is cautious, in particular, the new wheat is low and low, and the listing price of some grain subjects is lowered! In the pig market, pig prices stopped falling and rebounded, the stage of the bottom of the support is strong, although, the pressure of consumption constraints is not reduced, but, due to the bullish sentiment is strong, pig prices will still be dominated by the game!
First, the price of corn is "rising"!
Entering May, the corn market showed a bottoming trend, from the market feedback, the Northeast corn price is stable, however, due to the rise in corn prices in the southern sales area, the cost of imported corn has risen, the demand for domestic corn in the sales area has rebounded, the northern port has increased the number of orders, the bullish mentality of the main body of grain has become stronger, and the corn market is mainly weak and stable!
In the North China market, the progress of grain sales at the grassroots level exceeded 9 percent, the surplus grain was further reduced, the bullish sentiment of farmers was reluctant, the mentality of the main body of grain selling grain weakened, the bullish sentiment of the market became stronger, the supply of the circulation stage continued to narrow, and the difficulty of enterprise procurement increased. However, due to the sharp rise in domestic corn contract quotations, this not only boosted the bullish sentiment of the main body of grain holders, but also enhanced the mentality of the main body of grain construction and the corn market showed a trend of bottoming out!
Personally, I believe that based on the bottoming out of the grassroots surplus grain, the corn in the outer disk is stronger, the domestic corn contract quotation has risen sharply, the sentiment of the main body of grain has improved, and the enthusiasm for demand follow-up has increased.
Judging from the feedback from the grassroots, in the domestic corn market, the deep processing quotation generally rose by 0.5~1 cent/jin, the corn deep processing quotation in the Shandong market rose to 1.124~1.245 yuan, and the mainstream quotation was 1.13~1.18 yuan/jin; In Heijiliao and Inner Mongolia markets, corn prices are quoted at 1.1075~1.178 yuan, Jingliang Longjiang, Tongliao Meihua, Inner Mongolia Yipin and Cargill Biochemical, Hailun State Investment, enterprises rose 0.5~1 cents/jin!
Second, Xinmai opened low and went low, and Chen Mai fell under pressure!
Recently, in Hubei, new grain has been listed, due to the uneven quality of the listed grain, lodging and scab phenomenon in many places, the local new wheat loading price is 1.15 ~ 1.18 yuan / jin, the listed price of enterprises is 1.2 yuan / jin, previously, the listed price of enterprises in many provinces is 1.24 ~ 1.26 yuan / jin!
However, judging from the latest feedback, due to the strong expected bumper yield of new wheat and the poor quality of new wheat listed in Hubei, the quotation of Wudeli and Yihai Kerry New Wheat has been lowered, and some companies have lowered the price by about 2.5 cents/kg compared with the opening scale!
At present, in terms of the purchase and sale of old grain, due to the imminent launch of the new wheat market, the channel and the rhythm of grain depot wheat clearance, the rotation of local reserve wheat is larger, and the wheat supply pattern is sufficient; In terms of flour purchase and sales, due to the high temperature and humid environment, it is difficult to store flour, the demand support is insufficient, the downstream flour purchase and sales are cold, the orders of enterprises are reduced, and the mentality of old grain replenishment is poor!
In particular, due to the low price of new wheat, the cautious sentiment of the main body of grain has been further enhanced! In Shandong, Hebei and Henan and other places, the quotation of Chen wheat fell widely, the mainstream enterprises lowered by 0.5~1 points/jin, the mainstream wheat quotation in Shandong fell to 1.255~1.32 yuan/jin, Hebei wheat fell to 1.265~1.285 yuan/jin, and Henan wheat fell to 1.26~1.315 yuan/jin!
Third, pig prices stopped falling and rebounded!
Yesterday, pig prices rose and fell, in the northern region, the price of slaughtering enterprises fell, especially, by the pig price short-term rise, the breeding end of the pig subscription positive, and the second breeding entry mentality weakened, slaughtering enterprises procurement difficulty reduced, price reduction mentality, pig prices showed a trend of rising and falling!
However, pig prices did not continue to fall, the price drop was a "flash in the pan", the market sentiment became stronger again, and the bullish mentality heated up significantly!
On the one hand, the breeding end of the resistance to price reduction sentiment warmed up, in the northern region, the group of pig enterprises have the phenomenon of controlling the amount of slaughter, some pig enterprises sell pigs at a price tag, and retail pig farms are reluctant to sell at a high price, the breeding end is generally bullish on the market, small and medium-sized pigs are mainly waiting and seeing, and the large pigs are "slaughtered at a high level, and a low pressure bar", and the market supply pattern is tight again!
On the other hand, the mentality of buying the bottom still exists, and the second breeding is cautious, but in some areas, under the pressure of the empty fence of the pig farm, the second breeding still has the phenomenon of gambling on the market, and the phenomenon of filling the column is more!
Therefore, under the guidance of emotion, the market "lack of pigs" phenomenon rebounded, slaughtering enterprises increased the difficulty of procurement, Northeast, North China, East China and Central China, the social and group pig enterprises shrink the slaughter, slaughtering enterprises to raise prices and ensure the phenomenon of quantity is more common!
However, from a rational point of view, due to the unabated consumption constraints and the lack of substantial changes in pork demand, the rise in pig prices will still be under pressure to a certain extent, and the price lacks the opportunity to rise significantly!
It is expected that in the next 1~3 days, pig prices will be weak, stable and strong, and the market will have a strong bullish mentality, but the pressure of consumption constraints will not be reduced, and pig prices will be mainly sideways! According to data analysis, on May 15, the price of lean pigs in the outer three yuan was 15.06 yuan / kg, up 0.01 yuan / kg, the market showed a sideways trend, in the northern region, pig prices stopped falling and rebounded, up 0.05 ~ 0.1 yuan in many places, the southwest market was weak, South China, Central China and East China, pig prices were mainly stable with a rise!