Recently, the market has paid more attention to live pigs and refined oil, and a new round of oil price adjustment is imminent. After a brief surge in the hog market, the price fell again, will the pig price fall sharply this time? For the issues that everyone is concerned about, today we will briefly analyze:
Pig market: After the pig price ended a short period of "2 consecutive rises", today, the domestic pig price fell as promised, which is also consistent with the author's previous many warnings! Personally, I believe that the support for the previous rise in pig prices is mainly due to emotion!
Due to the pig production capacity to de-production, after May Day pig prices "do not fall", the market for pig prices in recent months prospects concern weakened, bullish confidence strengthened, pig mainstream near-month contract quotations soared, which further stimulated the spot pig purchase and sale of bullish sentiment, the breeding end of the reluctant to sell the bar, the second breeding concentrated entry, the north and south slaughtering enterprises pig yuan procurement affected by the mood of the difficulty of greatly increased, slaughtering enterprises were forced to raise prices to ensure the volume, pig prices showed a short-term rise trend!
However, it is difficult for sentiment to change the status quo of bearish fundamentals in the market! After the pig price rose this time, there were new changes in the market!
On the one hand, the breeding end has increased in the number of slaughters! Due to the relatively high proportion of large pig herds in the stage, the risk of weight gain of fat pigs increases, under the rising cost of feed and the inversion of the standard fertilizer price difference, the breeding end of the pig sentiment is heating up, the social side and the group pig enterprises are incrementally slaughtered, and the pig procurement of the north and south slaughtering enterprises is gradually smooth, due to the poor consumption of white strips, the loss of slaughtering enterprises is higher, and the mainstream sample slaughtering enterprises are losing 60~70 yuan.
On the other hand, in the past two days, the tour capital has risen to the bottom, and some of the second breeders have even made up the pig at a high price! However, due to the bullish consistency of pig prices, there are often "accidents", Eryu for 7~8 months, the prospect of pig prices is more cautious, the confidence of entering the market is reduced, and the wait-and-see mentality is stronger!
Therefore, under the factors such as the acceleration of the slaughter rhythm at the breeding end, the weakening of the bottom-buying support and the inversion of the standard fertilizer price spread, and the consumption demand in the phased off-season, pig prices are under pressure! However, due to the poor sentiment of retail investors, the group pig enterprises have a control mentality, and in some areas, Eryu still has the enthusiasm to enter the market, long and short intertwined, pig prices are stable and small, and the market continues to be sluggish!
According to data analysis, slaughtering enterprises to adjust the price of pigs, it is expected that on May 15, the price of pigs rose by 0.01 yuan / kg, the average price of pigs rose to 15.06 / kg, the market continued the situation of "strong in the north and weak in the south", the market is concerned about the rhythm of the slaughter of pig enterprises in the group, rationally, the bottom support of pig prices still exists, and the price may be dominated by high-frequency ups and downs, and the market may be difficult to have a unilateral downward trend!
Oil prices adjusted, and domestic No. 92 gasoline prices fell off a cliff......
In the domestic refined oil market, in accordance with the refined oil pricing mechanism introduced in April 2013, the domestic import of a relatively high proportion of crude oil prices tracked, at the same time on January 13, 16 supplemented, crude oil prices below 40 US dollars / barrel, domestic oil prices are not adjusted for the time being, domestic gasoline and diesel prices every 10 working days, based on the changes in crude oil in the three places for adjustment!
It is understood that this round of pricing cycle refers to the international price changes on April 29 ~ May 14, and at 24 o'clock on May 15, the domestic oil price refers to the level of crude oil changes on May 14, and the domestic gasoline and diesel prices are subject to price adjustments!
According to the analysis of the agency, in the 10th oil price pricing cycle in 2024, the 9th working day at the end of the domestic crude oil change rate will remain at about -4.89%, which is equivalent to the estimated decline of 220 yuan/ton for gasoline and diesel, exceeding the price adjustment line of 50 yuan/ton, which is equivalent to the estimated decline of 0.17~0.20 yuan/liter for No. 92 gasoline!
In terms of international crude oil, since mid-April, international oil prices have shown a trend of rising and falling, among which, WTI crude oil quotation has continued to decline from 86.91 US dollars / barrel, Brent crude oil quotation has gradually decreased from 91.17 US dollars / barrel, and international oil prices have been reduced by nearly 10%.
In this cycle, U.S. oil quotations fell from $83.85 / barrel to about $79.12 / barrel, and Brent crude oil fell from $89.5 / barrel to about $83.36 / barrel.
On the one hand, on the supply side, as it is difficult for the market to verify the growth rate of demand, the new OPEC+ meeting will further reduce crude oil production in the second half of the year, which has certain support for the market;
On the other hand, the Federal Reserve has repeatedly jumped sideways in the choice of "interest rate cuts" and "interest rate hikes", due to inflationary pressures, the Federal Reserve has an estimate of maintaining high interest rates, however, the US economic outlook is further pessimistic, which may boost the Fed's expectations of interest rate cuts, and the United States is facing the risk of "stagflation"! Recently, the Fed hawks frankly said that they may not cut interest rates this year, which has also caused the market's worries about economic weakness to increase, and the expectation of crude oil consumption capacity has declined, supporting the decline in oil prices!
Now, the oil price adjustment is imminent, tomorrow night at 24 o'clock, the 10th oil price adjustment of the year, domestic gasoline and diesel prices or will "fall off a cliff"!
Taking Shandong as an example, before the price adjustment, the price of No. 92 gasoline at the gas station on May 15 was 8.15 yuan/liter, if the oil price fell by 0.17~0.21 yuan/liter, at 0:00 on May 16, the price of No. 92 gasoline in Shandong, Shanghai and other places will fall back to the "7 yuan era...... (The specific reduction is subject to the latest official news tomorrow)