Soybean meal market: At present, the soybean meal market is facing a situation of "strong outside and weak inside"! In the external market, due to the reduction of soybean production in Brazil, extreme precipitation occurred in Rio Grande do Sul, which not only affected the yield and total output of surplus grain in the producing areas, but also inhibited the rhythm of grain sales by grassroots farmers. Superimposed, in the Argentine region, due to huge inflationary pressure, strikes have emerged one after another, which also affects port operations, restricts soybean transportation and port performance, and has certain support for the international market!
In terms of U.S. soybeans, due to the sharp rise in soybean oil contract quotations, soybean market support has become stronger, CBOT soybean prices have fluctuated higher, CBOT July contract quotations have risen to 1219.5 cents / bushel, and the main domestic continuous meal price has maintained a strong trend, and the continuous meal 2407 contract quotation has risen to 3556 yuan/ton! Supported by this factor, domestic spot soybean meal maintained a strong trend of shocks!
According to data analysis, at present, in terms of coastal oil mills, Shandong, Jiangsu, Guangdong and Tianjin, the spot price of soybean meal of oil mills is 3420~3480 yuan/ton! In the short term, soybean meal spot may maintain a volatile trend!
On the one hand, due to the surge in imported soybeans, the soybean inventory of domestic oil mills has increased, the operating rate has gradually increased, the inventory level of soybean meal has gradually improved, and the supply pattern has gradually relaxed, especially, in May ~ July, the monthly average of imported soybeans into the port may reach about 10 million tons!
On the other hand, due to the reduction of soybean production in Brazil, the U.S. soybean market is strong, the domestic Brazilian soybean discount price is firm, the dutiable cost price of imported soybeans is generally higher, and the dutiable price of imported soybeans in June ~ August shipping schedule may generally reach about 4100~4200 yuan/ton.
In particular, the domestic breeding industry is gradually out of the off-season, the pressure of pig and egg and poultry breeding losses is gradually reduced, and the feed consumption capacity may gradually increase, which will also have a certain support for spot soybean meal!
Oil price adjustment news: At 24 o'clock on May 15, 2024, the 10th oil price adjustment of the year, domestic gasoline and diesel prices may show a continuous downward trend, and gasoline and diesel prices are expected to fall sharply!
According to institutional analysis, on May 13, in the international market, U.S. oil and cloth oil quotations stopped falling and rose, U.S. oil quotations rose to 79.12 US dollars / barrel, cloth oil quotations rose to 83.36 US dollars / barrel, and oil prices rose by about 0.56 ~ 0.8 US dollars / barrel!
Affected by the international oil price stop falling and rising, 9 working days before the current round of pricing cycle, the rate of change of crude oil is about -4.81%, and the price of gasoline and diesel is 220 yuan/ton, which is equivalent to the price of No. 92 gasoline is estimated to fall by 0.17~0.2 yuan/liter!
This round of oil price decline landed, at that time, according to the volume of 50 liters of private cars, residents fill up a tank of oil, it is estimated that it will cost 8.5~10 yuan less, and the price adjustment of refined oil during the year will also show the performance of "5 up, 3 down and 2 stranded".
Previously, 9 times oil price adjustment, gasoline and diesel prices rose 805 yuan / ton and 775 yuan / ton respectively, the oil price fell to the ground, after the rise and fall of gasoline and diesel prices during the year, oil prices rose 585 yuan / ton, the increase has narrowed significantly, however, the price of 92 gasoline will still rise to about 0.48 ~ 0.49 yuan / liter during the year, and the price of refined oil is still at a high level during the year......
Now, the oil price adjustment is imminent, and at 24 o'clock tomorrow night, gasoline and diesel prices may fall sharply! Taking Shandong as an example, at present, the price of No. 92 gasoline is 8.15 yuan/liter, according to the current oil price fell by 220 yuan/ton, No. 92 gasoline is estimated to fall by 0.16~0.17 yuan/liter, after the price adjustment is completed, the price of No. 92 gasoline in Shandong may fall to 7.98~7.99 yuan/liter......
However, there are still certain variables in the specific price adjustment of oil prices, and the author will continue to pay attention to the changes in the market and update the performance of the latest oil price adjustment in a timely manner! It is hoped that today's international oil prices will fall sharply, and at that time, the current round of oil price reductions will be more violent......