Corn market: Recently, corn spot opened a "unilateral rise" trend, since this month, the average price of corn in Shandong has risen by more than 4.7%, the average price has risen by 1.17 yuan / jin, the mainstream corn price in Shandong has risen to 1.14 ~ 1.2 yuan / jin, and the sporadic price has risen by 1.27 yuan / jin!
However, judging from the latest feedback, Shandong corn rose "on the brakes", and the spot corn quotation showed a downward trend, the average price of Shandong corn fell to 1.163 yuan / catty, and most of the local enterprises fell 0.5 ~ 1.7 cents / catty!
On the one hand, in a short period of time, the volume of Shandong enterprises in front of the door surged, due to the recent corn price increase is obvious, traders are loose in the price mentality, the enthusiasm for selling grain increases, superimposed, the new wheat is about to be listed, some channels still have the phenomenon of vacating the warehouse, and the corn supply level has improved significantly!
On the other hand, the demand follow-up has weakened, in particular, the corn quotation has risen, the ability of enterprises to undertake high-priced grain sources has weakened, the enthusiasm for procurement has decreased, and the downstream starch goods in many factories have not been smooth, the temperature is hot, the shutdown and maintenance have increased, the average daily consumption of factories has declined, the wait-and-see mentality has become stronger, and the price reduction mentality has increased!
Therefore, based on the phased purchase and sales changes in the market, the spot price of corn shows a trend of rising and falling! However, I personally believe that due to the bottoming out of the grassroots surplus grain, the traders' voice has become stronger, the corn market lacks the support of continuous decline, and the market fundamentals will still be strong.
Urea market: This week, the domestic urea market continued to rise, among them, in the Shandong market, the price of small and medium-sized granular urea was 2330~2400 yuan, compared with the previous week, an increase of 95 yuan/ton!
Recently, urea prices have been running strongly, mainly due to the performance of "insufficient supply" in the market!
On the one hand, urea enterprises stopped work and overhaul more this week, the average daily output of urea fell to 176,000 tons, the capacity utilization rate was 81.2%, down 4~5 percentage points month-on-month, urea inventory pressure gradually entered, the supply pattern was slightly tighter, this week, urea output was about 1.23 million tons, a month-on-month decline of about 5 percentage points!
On the other hand, the demand is followed up positively! This week, by the gradual acceleration of the pace of new wheat harvesting, the demand for agricultural fertilizer in the north is increasing, farmers and traders have a strong demand for stocking, downstream purchase and sales are relatively positive, urea enterprises receive more, superimposed, industrial fertilizer demand is relatively positive, compound fertilizer enterprises maintain a high operating rate, and the demand for raw material replenishment is strong!
Therefore, the urea market is facing the situation of "weak supply and strong demand", which also supports the price to continue to rise, however, with the increase in quotations, the market sentiment is gradually cautious, personal estimates, next week, urea spot will still be dominated by strong shocks, and the upside may be limited, in particular, the time has come to be busy, and the market's concerns about the policy regulation of agricultural fertilizers have increased, which will also inhibit the performance of downstream demand follow-up!
Refined oil market: It is understood that a few days ago, the 10th oil price of the year ended with a sharp fall, the domestic 92/95 gasoline was generally lowered by 0.18 ~ 0.21 yuan, the market is looking forward to the oil price "3 consecutive drops" sentiment to become stronger, it is reported that the next oil price will be adjusted at 24 o'clock on May 29!
As we all know, the domestic oil price to 10 working days as a cycle, according to the three crude oil change levels for price adjustment, the end of the current round of pricing cycle 2 working days, crude oil change rate -1.04%, gasoline and diesel prices fell to 40 yuan / ton! As the price adjustment range is less than the standard line of 50 yuan/ton, the 11th oil price adjustment next year at this stage will maintain the performance of "stranded"!
However, in this round of pricing cycle, the domestic crude oil change rate began to run with a negative value, but the international oil price has seen a trend of "3 consecutive rises"!
According to institutional analysis, this round of pricing cycle, the starting point of U.S. oil and cloth oil prices were 78.02 US dollars / barrel and 82.38 US dollars / barrel, the previous three trading days, crude oil prices showed a continuous upward trend, as of this week, the price of U.S. oil rose to 79.53 US dollars / barrel, cloth oil rose to 84 US dollars / barrel, this cycle, the price of U.S. oil rose by about 1.94%, cloth oil prices rose by about 1.97%.
Although the international oil price has risen in general, the trend has continued to be strong!
On the one hand, the cooling of inflation in the United States has driven the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, and some institutions believe that the Federal Reserve will most likely cut interest rates in September, which has strong support for the crude oil market;
On the other hand, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventories are declining, and the summer energy consumption season in North America is coming, and the market's demand for crude oil consumption is gradually increasing!
Superimposed, on June 1, a new round of OPEC+ meetings may focus on the adjustment of production capacity in the third quarter, and mainstream institutions believe that OPEC+ may continue to reduce production by 2.2 million barrels per day, and the pattern of tight crude oil supply is still maintained!
Therefore, under the support of many factors, it is expected that in the short term, international oil prices may fluctuate strongly, which will continue to erode the expectation of a decline in domestic oil prices at the beginning of this cycle, rationally, at 24 o'clock on May 29, the 11th oil price adjustment in the year, domestic gasoline and diesel prices may not have the basis for further decline!
However, there is still some time before the oil price adjustment, the author will continue to pay attention to the changes in the crude oil market and update the latest oil price adjustment news in a timely manner, personally, I still hope that oil prices can fall more, after all, the current oil price level in various provinces and cities is still high, and Shandong is still 0.45 yuan / liter compared with the beginning of the year......
Attached: On May 20, the price of gasoline at gas stations in various provinces and cities 92/95!
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