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Time flies, more than half of May, in the domestic refined oil and ginger, aquatic products market, a variety of market trends shock! In terms of refined oil, domestic gasoline and diesel prices ushered in the trend of "2 consecutive declines", a new round of oil price adjustment, and the negative rate of change of domestic crude oil began, but the decline may be difficult to cash, and international oil prices show a strong trend! In terms of ginger, this month, the price of ginger is mainly volatile and downward, the price of "horizontal jump" has gradually weakened, and the market is mainly downslide! In the aquatic market, fish prices continued to rise, and the year-on-year increase of crucian carp, carp and tilapia reached 2~3 percent! The specific analysis is as follows:
First, the price of fish has risen!
This week, the domestic aquatic market continued to be strong, among them, the prices of representative grass carp, crucian carp, carp and tilapia continued to rise, the price of special aquatic raw fish and California perch was strong, and the price of yellow catfish and catfish was slightly weak!
Among them, in the general water category, the average price of grass carp out of the pond this week was 6.4 yuan / catty, an increase of about 3% year-on-year; The average price of crucian carp out of the pond this week was 10.2 yuan per catty, up 4.3%, a year-on-year increase of 20%. This week, the average price of carp out of the pond was 7.2 yuan/catty, and the price was mainly stable compared with last week, with a year-on-year increase of 21%, and the average price of tilapia out of the pond this week was 6 yuan/catty, an increase of more than 30% year-on-year!
In terms of special water, this week, the average price of forktail catfish out of the pond was 7 yuan, down 0.1 yuan from last week and 23% year-on-year. The average price of raw fish out of the pond was 7.3 yuan, up 5.1% from last week and 7% year-on-year; The average price of yellow catfish out of the pond was 14.2 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34%; The average price of California perch out of the pond was 18.3 yuan / catty, an increase of 7.4% from last week and a year-on-year increase of 38%!
On the one hand, the weather has weakened, residents' eating habits have changed, and the phenomenon of aquatic consumption substitution has increased, especially the demand for outdoor dining has increased, and the consumption performance has improved significantly; On the other hand, at present, there are few adult fish storage ponds at the mainstream aquaculture end, the weather is hot, the difficulty of aquatic product circulation increases, and the supply pattern is slightly tight! In the short term, the situation of weak supply and strong demand in the market will continue, and the aquatic market is still expected to rise further!
Second, the price of ginger is weak!
This month, due to the off-season consumer demand and poor follow-up of catering consumer demand, the ginger market is exceptionally calm, and the price is mainly weak in shock!
Among them, in Qingzhou, the wholesale price of ginger was 5.65 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin compared with the beginning of the month; In Anqiu area, the average price of ginger was 4.05 yuan, down 0.15 yuan from the beginning of the month, and the average price of ginger in Changyi area was 5.45 yuan, down 0.2 yuan from the beginning of the month.
According to the analysis of the agency, at the beginning of this month, supported by the holiday factor, the purchase and sale of ginger was relatively positive, especially the increase in tourism consumption demand, the increase in catering demand, and the positive performance of purchase and sales. However, after entering the middle of the year, farmers mostly choose to go to the market, the shipping pressure is not large, and the demand is generally followed, and the merchants purchase with their use, and the market performance is relatively stable! However, in recent days, the price trend of ginger has weakened slightly, the demand of merchants has decreased, the phenomenon of picking and picking goods has increased, the supply pattern is slightly excessive, and the price is dominated by the following lines!
Personally, I think that because there is still some time before the new ginger listing cycle, and in terms of grassroots inventory, the inventory of old ginger has bottomed out, and the supply pressure of spot ginger is not large, and the market may be affected by the demand to show a trend of ups and downs, and the price is difficult to fluctuate violently!
Third, oil price adjustment!
Oil prices ended 10 times during the year, the market continued the situation of "rising more and falling less", although, the last gasoline and diesel fell by 235 yuan and 225 yuan / ton, domestic oil prices ushered in the largest decline, 92/95 gasoline generally fell by 0.18 ~ 0.21 yuan / liter, however, the price increase in gasoline during the year was still high, equivalent to 92 gasoline generally rose 0.45 yuan / liter during the year!
Now, the 11th oil price adjustment cycle of the year has arrived, due to the current round of pricing cycle, the average price of crude oil is lower than the average price of the previous cycle, the rate of change of crude oil is negative, however, the decline is gradually narrowing, as of the previous 2 working days, the rate of change of crude oil is -1.04%, and it is estimated that gasoline and diesel will fall by 40 yuan / ton, which is temporarily in the stage of stranding!
At present, there are still 8 working days before the price adjustment, and there is still a chance to fall in this round of pricing cycle, but I personally think that it is relatively slim, especially the international crude oil market shows a trend of "3 consecutive rises"!
It is understood that at present, in terms of international crude oil, the price of U.S. oil rose to 79.53 US dollars / barrel, the price of cloth oil rose to about 84 US dollars / barrel, international oil prices fluctuated higher, in the short term, the market still has further support for the rise, which is bound to intensify the rebound of the rate of change of crude oil in the cycle, the 11th oil price in the year or difficult to usher in the trend of "3 consecutive declines"!
On the one hand, the decline in U.S. crude oil inventories and the growing expectation of a Fed rate cut have inhibited further strength in the U.S. dollar market and supported the strong trend of U.S. dollar-denominated crude oil prices!
On the other hand, the consumption of crude oil market is in the cyclical peak season, North America is ushering in the peak driving period, and the new round of OPEC+ meeting may once again extend the plan to cut production!
Therefore, based on various factors in the market, there is a risk that domestic oil prices will be strong, and it may be difficult to reduce domestic gasoline and diesel prices smoothly for the 11th time this year, and the author will continue to pay attention to the changes in the market!
Attached is the price of gasoline No. 92/95 at the gas station on May 19!