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In May, the domestic pig and grain market abruptly changed, among them, the pig price rose significantly, and the northern market bucked the trend, but the market was at risk of falling. In the grain market, corn "dived", wheat "opened", and the market showed a divergent trend, the specific analysis is as follows:
First, corn "dives" and wheat "rises"!
In the corn market, recently, the spot price of corn continues to rise, the bottom support of corn in the Northeast has become stronger, the main body of grain has increased its right to speak, the orders for export grain sources in Jinzhou Port have increased, the grain source to the port is insufficient, and the quotation has risen slightly.
In the North China market, due to the decrease in surplus grain, the channel is reluctant to sell the price, and the corn contract quotation in recent months has risen sharply, the market has become more active, the supply is weak and the demand is strong, the price of enterprises has risen frequently, and the average price of local corn has risen significantly, and the average price of corn in Shandong has risen by more than 106 yuan/ton in the month, and the quotation has risen to about 1.171 yuan/catty!
However, with the rise in corn prices in the stage, in North China, after the continuous narrowing of the amount in front of the enterprise, the market sentiment has changed, the acceptance of downstream enterprises for high-priced grain sources has weakened, and the wait-and-see price stabilization mentality has become stronger.
According to the data, in Shandong, the arrival of deep processing has increased to more than 1,170 cars, the company's grain procurement has weakened, and the price reduction mentality has become stronger, and in Shandong, the mainstream deep processing quotation fell by 0.3~1 cent/jin, and the mainstream corn quotation in Shandong was 1.13~1.26 yuan/jin!
Personally, I believe that at present, the corn market is long and short, and the main body of grain is temporarily strengthened by high shipments, the demand follow-up is weakened, and the mentality of cautious high-price replenishment of corn increases, superimposed, some enterprises are suspended for maintenance, and the level of corn consumption is declining. However, in terms of trends, due to the gradual reduction of surplus grain, the rise of corn will still be the main theme!
In the wheat market, recently, with the merger of new wheat prices, the space for the price of old wheat to fall has gradually narrowed, in particular, the official news released before, it is estimated that the new wheat opening scale price is 1.25 ~ 1.35 yuan, which is much higher than the new wheat spot opening scale price in Hubei, the market price mentality has become stronger, and the new wheat quotation has stopped falling and warmed up!
Among them, the listed price of wheat in Hubei Tianqi wheat rose by 2 points, and the price of new wheat rose to 1.2 yuan / catty. In some enterprises in Henan, the listed price of Xinmai also rose slightly, and some quotations remained at about 1.24~1.29 yuan/catty!
At present, the rhythm of new wheat harvesting is gradually adjusted to the north, some farmers in the south of Henan Province harvest new wheat, the price of dry grain at the grassroots level is 1.13~1.15 yuan/jin, the price of some loading and outgoing is 1.15~1.18 yuan/jin, and the listed price of mainstream milling enterprises is about 1.2~1.25 yuan/jin!
By the gradual increase in the listing of new wheat, the new wheat holiday has gradually stabilized, the price of milling enterprises is limited, the market has entered a weak and stable situation, some milling enterprises by the grain source inventory, there is a narrow range of price adjustment, but rationally, due to the new wheat harvest expectations, the price of old wheat still fluctuates weakly!
Judging from the market feedback, in Shandong, Heze Huarui rose 1 point to 1.285 yuan, Shandong Luhua flour fell 2.5 points to 1.28 yuan, Jining Lisheng fell 0.5 points to 1.275 yuan, and the mainstream Chenmai price fell to about 1.25~1.29 yuan / catty; Hebei market, Hebei Jinsha Henan and Shahe rose 0.5 points, the price was 1.265 yuan, Xiongxian good noodles rose 0.5 points, the price was 1.28 yuan, and the mainstream wheat price in Hebei was about 1.26~1.28 yuan/jin!
Second, the price of pigs has risen significantly!
In the pig market, in the near future, the market bullish and bearish sentiment coexists, however, the pig price is difficult to go down smoothly, in the sentiment and the support of the bottom of the capital, the pig price shows a significant upward trend!
According to the analysis of the institution, at present, the basis for the bearish price of pigs, on the one hand, the consumption support is insufficient, the demand for downstream white strips is weak, the enthusiasm for the purchase and sale of white strips in the wholesale market is not high, and there is obvious pressure on consumption! In particular, the changes in residents' eating habits, the rebound in light consumption demand, and the deterioration of demand for meat, and at this stage, melons, fruits and vegetables are concentrated on the market, poultry and beef and mutton prices are low, and pork consumption is not good; On the other hand, the price of standard pigs is higher, the price of fat pigs is lower, the inversion of standard fertilizer is further revealed, and there are more large pigs in the stage of breeding, and there is a sentiment of selling pigs at high prices in the market!
Of course, the negative factors in the pig market still exist, but the market is bullish and confident, and the breeding end has the right to speak! In particular, by the pig production capacity, the sow inventory declined, the domestic standard pig supply declined month by month, the market is bullish on the prospect of long-term pig prices, the stage of farmers standard pig pressure pen weight gain, the second breeding supplement column pig is more positive, retail investors and group pig enterprises have a significant pull up the slaughter mood!
Therefore, under the support of many parties, on May 19, the pig price rose by 0.18 yuan, the price of pigs rose to 15.49 yuan / kg, the price of live pigs even hit a new high, the domestic north and south markets showed a comprehensive upward trend, the average price of live pigs in some parts of East China and South China rose above 16 yuan / kg, and the center of gravity of pig prices in the northern region also continued to rise!
However, due to the bearish sentiment in the market, there is a high level of slaughter sentiment at the breeding end, it is expected that the market lacks a unilateral upward trend, and the price still has pressure to rise and fall!