01# Production, trade and prices of livestock products in major countries
(1) Pork
In terms of production: U.S. pork production in February was 1.058 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.6%.
On the trade front, exports from the United States and Brazil both increased year-on-year in February. From the United States, pork exports were 269,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 17.7%. Among them, exports to China were 14,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 29.4%. From Brazil, pork exports were 93,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 20.5%. Among them, exports to China were 26,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 16.0%.
In terms of prices: Pork prices in the United States continued to rise, with the average wholesale price of pork cuts at $1.97/kg in March 2024, up 3.5% month-on-month and 10.2% year-on-year, and 14.65 yuan/kg at the exchange rate for the same period. EU pork prices rebounded but remained at a low level, with EU pork prices at 17.05 yuan/kg in March 2024, up 5.9% month-on-month and down 0.5% year-on-year. Brazilian pork prices continued to fall, with Brazilian pork prices at $1.92/kg in March 2024, down 0.5% month-on-month and 9.7% year-on-year. At the exchange rate of the same period, the price of Brazilian pork in March was 13.84 yuan/kg.
(2) Poultry meat
In terms of production: U.S. poultry meat output in February was 1.911 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%.
On the trade front, in February, exports from the United States fell year-on-year, while exports from Brazil increased year-on-year. From the United States, chicken exports were 248,000 tons, down 10.2% year-on-year. Among them, exports to China were 5,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 63.2%. From Brazil, chicken exports were 388,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%. Among them, exports to China were 42,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.2%.
In terms of prices, chicken prices in the United States rose slightly in March 2024, up 0.6% month-on-month and 3.8% year-on-year, chicken prices in the European Union rose in March 2024, rising 1.9% month-on-month and down 2.4% year-on-year in March, and Brazilian chicken prices fell slightly in March 2024, falling 0.9% month-on-month and up 2.4% year-on-year in March. (in RMB)
(3) Beef
In terms of production: U.S. beef production in February was 970,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%.
On the trade front: In February, beef exports from Brazil and Australia both increased year-on-year, while the United States fell year-on-year. From Brazil, beef exports were 204,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 40.6%. Among them, exports to China were 96,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 33.9%. From the United States, beef exports were 111,000 tons, down 2.6% year-on-year. Among them, exports to China were 19,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%. From Australia, beef exports were 94,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 33.3%. Among them, exports to China were 16,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 25.8%.
In terms of prices: U.S. beef prices continue to rise sharply. Beef prices rose 7.4% month-on-month in March (up 12.7% in the previous month) and 14.2% year-on-year. (in RMB)
(4) Mutton
Australia's lamb exports are at record highs, and exports to China have increased significantly. In February, Australia exported 56,000 tons of lamb, a year-on-year increase of 38.7%. Among them, the export of sheep meat was 42,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 35.8%, and the export of goat meat was 4,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 92.1%. The export of mutton to China was 12,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.0%.
02# International Livestock Price Index
(1) Meat
The FAO Meat Price Index continued to recover in March 2024, with poultry, beef and pork prices all rising, while lamb prices declining. The FAO Meat Price Index (base period 2014-2016) began to decline continuously in July 2023, fell to 110.46 in January 2024 and rebounded, and was 112.99 in March, up 1.7% month-on-month and down 1.5% year-on-year.
Pork: The pork price index rose at 110.61, up 2.0% month-on-month (up for 2 consecutive months) and down 2.0% year-on-year, due to the growth of demand in China and the shortage of supply in Western Europe. Poultry meat: Affected by the increase in global demand for poultry meat, the price index of poultry meat rose to 110.71, up 2.0% month-on-month (up for 2 consecutive months) and down 1.8% year-on-year (lower than the same period last year for 12 consecutive months). Beef: The beef market is booming in supply and demand, with the beef price index at 118.55, up 1.8% month-on-month (up for 2 consecutive months) and up 1.9% year-on-year (higher than the same period last year for 5 consecutive months). Lamb: Lamb prices fell due to a significant increase in Australian lamb exports. The mutton price index was 98.03, down 2.0% month-on-month (down for 2 consecutive months) and down 20.6% year-on-year (lower than the same period last year for 13 consecutive months).
(2) Dairy products
Global dairy prices rebounded in March 2024. Specifically, it continued to fall from 144.67 in January 2023 to 111.98 in September, began to oscillate and rebound in October, and rose to 124.17 in March, up 2.9% month-on-month and down 8.2% year-on-year (lower than the same period last year for 14 consecutive months). In February, the global wholesale price of whole milk powder rose month-on-month for five consecutive months, to $3,982/ton, up 0.3% month-on-month and 0.6% year-on-year. Among them, the wholesale price of whole milk powder in the United States was US$4,626/ton, up 1.8% month-on-month and down 3.8% year-on-year; the wholesale price of whole milk powder in Oceania rose month-on-month for five consecutive months to US$3,394/ton, up 3.4% month-on-month and 4.2% year-on-year; and the wholesale price of whole milk powder in the European Union fell for two consecutive months to US$3,925/ton, down 3.8% month-on-month and up 3.1% year-on-year. According to the RMB exchange rate in the same period, the global wholesale price of whole milk powder in February was 28,613 yuan/ton. Among them, the United States, Oceania and the European Union were 33,245 yuan/ton, 24,388 yuan/ton and 28,205 yuan/ton respectively. On February 20, the auction price of whole milk powder was 3,388 US dollars/ton, and the price of fresh milk was 3.99 yuan/kg.
03# Later market outlook
Meat prices are expected to maintain a slight increase in the second quarter.
Pork: International pork prices will rise slightly due to a slight decline in supply from major producing countries and a recovery in import demand in Asia
In terms of poultry meat: the global demand for poultry meat is increasing, and the production of European and American countries is affected by avian influenza, and the international poultry meat price will rise.
Beef: With the steady increase in beef production, the rate of international beef price increase will slow down.
In terms of mutton, international mutton prices will fall due to the increase in lamb production in Oceania and the weakening import demand in Asia.