Yesterday's stock market is worth talking about.
I share my review in my community. The original text is as follows:
The market is generally up sharply today.
It shouldn't be surprising to you that yesterday I posted a screenshot of the bond market on Planet.
This is a reflection of today's market.
Some friends didn't understand.
I'll talk about it in more detail in the review.
Of course, I know that there is a very interesting thing: when it falls, it can be carried by it, and once it rises, everyone panics.
This is the most anti-human thing about the stock market.
As a result, most people endure long beatings just to get back to their roots. It has nothing to do with making money.
First, the game is over, and the opportunity for entrepreneurship and entrepreneurship is opened
Last Monday, I posted with you about the arrival of the opportunity for entrepreneurship and entrepreneurship, and I posted another post on the weekend to confirm the opportunity for the second time.
Today, Shuangchuang ushered in a long-awaited surge.
The reason for this has been made clear at the end of the week, and you can look through it again.
Most people in the entire market will get off in the process of rising, which is inevitable.
However, these people were never the ones who dominated the trend.
I would like to remind you that regardless of whether there will be a pullback or not, you must have figured out what the logic of selling is?
Then add or decrease positions in strict accordance with the established strategy.
When to reduce positions, I have said in the monthly strategy.
Now it's up to you to execute.
Of course, it may also be tossed back and forth.
But does it matter?
Let's not try to do it right for every band, it's absolutely impossible.
Overcoming human nature and insisting on doing the right thing with a high probability for a long time is the king.
Second, institutional risk appetite has rebounded
Bond rates rose sharply yesterday and continue to rise sharply today.
The 30-year treasury bond futures have been seriously broken, and the bond bear market has started ahead of schedule.
This decline in ultra-long bonds could reach more than 10%.
Why is this happening?
Because institutions are forced to join the chase under the crazy market of foreign capital and the national team, otherwise they will be eliminated.
Some small organizations will close their doors if they don't do it well.
So over the weekend and today, institutions are in a hurry to sell bonds and cargo bases, fiercely chasing up and increasing their positions.
As I mentioned to you before, we should pay close attention to: 1-year certificate of deposit interest rate, 10-year treasury bond interest rate, real estate, consumption (liquor).
These four are the best way to help us analyze our risk appetite.
Now all four are signaling, so the probability of continuing to rise increases.
Real estate is very fierce today. That's up 6.48%.
Vanke is even more up and down.
Over the weekend, a friend asked me what I think of Moody's downgrading Vanke's rating?
It's all smokescreens.
The key to real estate stabilization is two things:
1. Whether there is funds to supplement cash flow;
2. Whether the policy is liberalized.
Because our real estate is a problem on the debt side, the demand side does not account for a large proportion.
The order of real estate stabilization is: CSI 300 temperature rises - real estate stocks temperature rises - sales volume stabilizes and rises - prices stabilize.
Now the stock market is giving a signal.
3. The internal switching of CSI 300 has intensified
Since I told my family last week that the CSI 300 began to switch styles, the speed of switching is now accelerating.
The targets we track are liquor and dividends.
Today, liquor continues to outperform dividends. The dividend also fell by 0.12%.
In the process of rebounding risk appetite, safe-haven assets have to eat some soil.
In addition, I would like to mention the quarterly report of liquor.
Still using data to continue to slap those who say that young people don't drink liquor.
Slap in the face of those who say that liquor has no application scenarios.
There are many things that people with low cognitive dimensions can't understand.
They can't understand the underlying logic of the liquor business at all. It's all about people.
After the stock price of any industry continues to fall, it is a ghost story flying all over the sky, it is up to you to believe it or not.
In addition to liquor, new energy has also risen well today, on the one hand, the valuation repair, and on the other hand, the policy of trade-in over the weekend.
According to estimates, there are tens of millions of replacement vehicles.
This can better alleviate the problem of overcapacity of new energy.
Fourth, retail investors' emotions are mobilized
Today, the small and micro market also rose strongly.
Obviously, this is not the work of foreign capital and large institutions.
Retail investors are always obsessed with highly volatile stocks.
However, they will not understand, and there are many pits waiting for them in the future.
Let me tell you a story.
Originally, the parents beat a child who often steals chickens and dogs at home. The child was crying.
As a result, the neighbors were noisy.
The neighbor came to the door, and this neighbor was still the kind of person who was very powerful and couldn't be offended casually.
And the neighbor also said, don't fight at night, you can fight casually during the day, just don't make me rest.
As long as you do so, I will also return to you the chicken that accidentally broke into my house. You can also kill and nourish those obedient children.
Let's talk about what I'm talking about.
If you have thoroughly understood the rebalancing of "savings-investment" between China and the United States that I posted today, you will understand what it means.
Fifth, the global revaluation of assets has only just begun
In the past two years, the United States has been playing a game of holding urine with the world.
Whoever can't hold it will collapse.
Of course, they would have preferred that we collapse.
However, because we did not release water during the epidemic, we forbearance and reduced leverage.
It's a choice between the short term and the long term.
This treatment is slow, but it has few side effects.
When extreme treatments overseas have strong side effects, the pee-holding game is our win.
Then the global assets are revalued.
Some economies are in big trouble!! such as... Small day
I'm still the same old saying: If you lose your horse, you won't know if you're blessed!
Fortune and misfortune are always reversed.
The cycle is coming to our side.
Therefore, hold the chips in your hands and invest or trade strictly according to your established strategy.
Don't let the fluctuations disturb your emotions.
What about even a short-term pullback?
If you don't reach the position of reducing your position, you can't move around.
The reward is voluntary, and 1 cent is silently supported, haha!
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