After Iran's long-awaited "retaliation" action finally began, everyone was surprised to find that the strike effect was very poor! According to Israeli statistics afterwards, in Iran's retaliatory action, a total of 185 unmanned aerial vehicles, 36 cruise missiles, and 110 surface-to-ground missiles were launched, totaling 321 missiles and drones of various types. The Israeli military said 99 percent of Iranian drones and missiles were intercepted by the country's multi-layered air defense system. But in a statement issued by Biden, he said that it was the United States that helped "Israel shoot down almost all the incoming drones and missiles." #伊朗以色列 ##伊朗99% of missiles and drones were intercepted#
Not to mention how much the United States has contributed to Israel's interception operation, judging from the actual results of Iran's retaliatory action called "honest commitment", if not intentionally "releasing water," at least "thunder and rain." According to CNN, the Iranian airstrike lasted about five hours from the beginning to the end of the declared end. Although Iran claims that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has successfully hit and destroyed important Israeli military targets.
However, the Israeli side does not agree with this claim, claiming that only one Israeli military base has been "slightly damaged" by the intensive attack of Iranian drones and missiles, except for one child who was seriously injured. In addition, Israel's biggest losses may be the economic losses of more than a dozen grounded flights, as well as the consumption of missiles during the interception operation, which is estimated to have cost about $1 billion in total.
Therefore, some people claim that the reason why Iran's air strikes are so poor is actually that Iran deliberately "released water": it notified the United States and Israel of its attack plan in advance, and then the two sides deliberately "acted" a fake fight. The goal is that Iran can give an account to its own people and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and Netanyahu can use an excuse to withdraw troops from Gaza and use external threats to quell the domestic opposition. The proof is that Iran, knowing that it is thousands of kilometers away from Israel, still chooses a combination of weapons with a huge speed difference: a ballistic missile takes only 12 minutes, a cruise missile takes 2 hours, and a suicide drone takes 9 hours!
Therefore, Iran's air strikes, which are naturally divided into three attack waves because of the speed of their weapons, are tantamount to "sending sheep into the tiger's mouth" to Israel's advanced multi-layered defense system and a large number of US and Israeli fighter planes that have already gone out to the skies over neighboring countries to conduct interception operations! Even the more than 100 ballistic missiles, which are the fastest, have been intercepted quite a bit outside the territory of Israel's "Arrow" air defense and antimissile system. Although the interception operations of Israel and the United States could not be achieved 100 percent after all, there were still a small number of weapons that were not intercepted by Israel.
But this cannot be taken as evidence that Iran is deliberately "releasing water". After all, in terms of military strength and weapon performance, there is indeed a big gap between Iran and Israel, and Israel has also received strong intelligence support and direct military support from the United States, so it is not surprising that the effect of this wave of Iranian air strikes is extremely poor. But most importantly: the current results are all claims made by Israel and the Western media. Judging from the videos circulating on the Internet, many attacks did hit ground targets. Although it is impossible to tell whether it is a drone or a missile, at least in terms of quantity, it "slaps in the face" of Israel's claim of "99% interception rate"!
Although Israel's multi-layered defense network, which has taken decades to build with the support of the United States, is not only advanced, but also has withstood a lot of practical tests. For example, the "Iron Dome" air defense system has a range of 5 to 70 km; the "David's Sling" interception system has a range of 40 to 300 km; and the "Arrow" air defense and antimissile system is mainly used by Israel to intercept medium- and long-range ballistic missiles outside the atmosphere, and even has anti-satellite capabilities.
Moreover, Israel's multi-layered air defense network, which covers a wide range of ranges, can only be regarded as an "inner defense circle," while a large number of Israeli, American, and British fighter planes that have already gone out into the airspace over Israel's neighboring countries can be regarded as an "outer defense circle." It is reported that dozens of Israeli fighter jets were engaged in "offshore" interception operations that night, shooting down many drones and at least 25 cruise missiles. The United States, on the other hand, used its military bases in Syria and sent fighter jets to assist in the operation. In addition, it is reported that Jordanian fighters also shot down dozens of Iranian drones that were crossing its airspace.
But that doesn't mean that nearly 100 percent of the more than 300 drones and missiles launched by Iran can be intercepted. Although with Iran's current military strength, planning and carrying out such an air attack on a military power thousands of kilometers away from Iran, and the fact that there are other countries blocking the two countries, is itself in the nature of "colliding with great luck." However, the double-layer protective nets of the United States and Israel cannot be leaky, especially low-altitude and slow-flying drones. Even judging from the online video, many of the munitions that hit the Israeli mainland were smashed almost vertically from a high altitude, which is likely to be a more powerful missile. Therefore, Iran should have taken into account the difficulty of penetrating the defense, and also chose to use "quantity" to achieve its goal.
Israeli fighters shot down Iranian drones and cruise missiles with air-to-air missiles
As a result, Iran partially achieved this effect, but there were also several loopholes. First, its relations with its neighbors are not good enough to "turn a blind eye" to the transit of its missiles and drones, such as Jordan's interception of its drones; second, Iran's ability to organize and carry out air strikes using a variety of weapons is still weak, and it has not been able to use its numerical superiority to put too much pressure on the adversary's defense system; and finally, Iran's huge gap in intelligence and battlefield situational awareness with the United States has made it "blindfolded" and engaged with its "all-open" adversary.
Therefore, the failure of Iran's surprise attack was not "deliberate," but a "helplessness" with a huge gap in strength between the two sides! And judging from the video from "unofficial" channels, Iran is not without a single harvest, and there are still a small number of drones or missiles that have broken through the defense network. After all, Iran has been supporting behind the scenes from October last year to now, but has not taken the initiative, and now it needs some actions to show its attitude. After that, the situation may be under the premise that Iran, the United States, and Israel are not willing to continue to escalate the situation, and it is likely that after this round, the struggle between the two sides will go into the dark again, and the United States can also take a break from paying attention to Ukraine - after all, it is more dangerous over there!