Former Polish Foreign Minister: Is the United States reliable? Europe must take energy security seriously

The American press published an article by the former foreign minister of Poland, noting that the West must take the issue of energy security seriously.

Over the past few decades, the decision to deepen dependence on Russian gas has put Europe in a dangerous situation.

Article by Anna Fotiga, former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Poland, The National Interest, March 21, 2024.

The conclusion of last month's Munich Security Conference is a frustrating repetition of the same old tune, but it is worth repeating. The Americans I spoke to came back from Europe with a very gloomy view of the world situation: the bloody conflict in Israel and Gaza, the threat of a broader Middle East conflict, the danger posed by terrorist activities to trade and shipping, and, most importantly, the war of aggression against Ukraine continues, and the threat of Russian attacks on European and NATO countries lingers. Recently, the United States has failed to provide Ukraine with the funds and weapons it needs to defend itself, which has made the threat from NATO even more serious. Moreover, the news about Navalny's murder also proves something that we should all be aware of: Putin's instinct is to escalate any crisis into a collective crisis for the West. In the Kremlin, our partner is not Putin, but a former KGB agent, whose goal is to rebuild the Russian Empire not through development and reform, but through conquest and bloodshed.

Money and weapons are essential elements for Ukraine to win this war, as well as for Europe, which wants to seriously contain and defeat Russian aggression. But they're not all. In the same vein, we must also address the issue of energy, which is often seen as secondary. Not really. Energy from the United States is vital to the security of Europe as a whole.

Over the past few decades, the decision to deepen dependence on Russian gas has now proven to be a serious mistake. Actually, Poland's late President Lech Kaczynski and I predicted this at the time. Instead of cultivating a sense of cooperation, we have been attacked. As a result, naïve Europe, while subsidizing Russian hostility, also deepens the risk of energy blackmail. How to correct these mistakes and prevent similar disasters from happening depends on two simple factors: supply and demand.

The first is demand, can Europe's demand for Russian gas be reduced? The EU has spent billions of dollars on the energy transition and is working to support renewable fuels and clean energy. Despite the huge cost, it is unlikely that the demand for gas in Europe will decrease. Technology, industry, infrastructure and communities will continue to rely on traditional fuels. There is no demand-side solution to the question of how to reduce dependence on natural gas.

The only solution is for Europe to ensure large-scale supplies of non-Russian gas. To achieve true energy security, it is best to use indigenous energy sources. However, Europe is not a significant producer of domestic energy. The next best option is to be supplied by powerful allies. Fortunately, the solution is actually already on the other side of the Atlantic.

In the first six months of 2023 alone, the U.S. exported more liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Europe than ever before. Now almost two-thirds of the total volume of US LNG exports goes to Europe, which allows us to wean ourselves off Russian gas while continuing to guarantee security of supply. The share of Russian gas in Europe has dropped from 41% in 2021 to 8% in 2023, which is a great success. U.S. LNG is also less polluting than Russian gas, and its supply will increase significantly as the U.S. builds more dedicated LNG terminals. Europe will have access to a secure, predictable energy supply for decades to come, while the United States will also receive huge new energy revenues and a job boom in the southern states where LNG terminals are located.

Creating energy insecurity has always been at the heart of Putin's neo-imperialist game, with the aim of dividing Europe, regaining influence and blackmailing those who dare to oppose his rule. Energy security should be at the heart of the collective unity of the West and, if handled properly, can strengthen our transatlantic ties. The infrastructure is largely in place and political will is growing, especially in many parts of Europe where sunshine and wind speeds are low. The economic and political gains are enormous, but our collective resilience will be the biggest beneficiaries. Our commitment to the terms of the Washington Treaty, particularly to economic cooperation and energy, is being tested, and if we overcome our own differences, the transatlantic bond can continue to serve as the primary framework for collective prosperity.

My American partners are hearing positive signals from Europe. Nevertheless, we were surprised by the US announcement of the effective cessation of the licensing of new terminals for the delivery of LNG to European and Asian allies. The implications for Europe are worrying. Future U.S. LNG supplies will be critical to avoid the 2022 spike in energy and food prices that followed the invasion of Ukraine. These future supplies may not materialize. The European Commission does not seem to realize the importance of the US decision. Maros Sevkovic, executive vice president of the European Commission, commented that supplies from Europe will not be affected "for 2 to 3 years". Energy security cannot be measured in such a short period of time. Energy plans should look at a time span of twenty or thirty years, not two or three years.

Europe must take long-term energy security seriously and express its views more effectively. The European Commission lacks a democratic mandate, is largely accountable to its constituents, and does not pay any price for its mistakes. Europeans have higher bills to pay, their companies can't plan and invest for the long term, and politicians have to explain the wrong policies. What does not have a negative impact in the opinion of Sevkovic, in the opinion of Andrea Di Giuseppe, chairman of the International Trade Committee of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Italian Chamber of Deputies, "will have a significant impact on the energy security of the European Union" and "undermine the energy security of its European allies".

Once again, we are witnessing the same plan: a European institution without a democratic mandate imposes a policy, the consequences of which will be dealt with by politicians and society at the national level. The massive protests of European peasants across the continent are a case in point. The numerous cases of citizens in Western Europe who have been unable to pay their energy bills are also a case in point. In short, we cannot allow failed energy policies to destabilize our economies and deepen the poverty of our societies.

Europe's business leaders are also aware of this. The U.S. pause "could lead to a loss of confidence in Europe in the U.S. as a strategic partner for energy security" and that "if there is not enough U.S. LNG on the market in 2026, 2027 and 2028, it could lead to increased risks and prolonged global supply imbalances," the secretary general of the European Gas Organization. Those companies that have pledged to use American LNG to wean themselves off Russian energy are turning to a trusted partner and are sending worrying signals.

We are so close to a watershed moment: a new era in which safe, reliable and guaranteed energy supplies are provided by our closest geopolitical allies. Dependence on Russian dictators must become a thing of the past. To achieve this, Europeans must have frank discussions about deepening our transatlantic ties through strategic energy cooperation. This is good not only for American industry and workers, but also for European security, economics, and moral authority. European leaders need to break free from silos and fight for this outcome. We should not transfer wealth, security, and influence to untrustworthy partners. We can't move from one risk to another, otherwise, it will be a victory for Putin.