On April 23, 2024, the U.S. Congress passed a new aid bill that plans to allocate $95 billion for earmarked foreign aid.
In addition to $8 billion for arms sales to Taiwan and more than $20 billion for aid to Israel, the remaining $95 billion is used to support Ukraine to continue to fight the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
After this aid was finalized, the voice of "the advantage is in Ukraine" appeared on the Internet, believing that the United States will greatly increase Ukraine's combat effectiveness after this aid, and the Russian army will suffer hundreds of thousands of casualties in this war.
And there are voices that think
Putin
Is this true?
U.S. aid to Ukraine
In fact, the current new US aid to Ukraine can only be said to be an act that considers political issues to a large extent, rather than military issues.
First of all, it is certain that the United States is now assisting Ukraine because it does not want the responsibility of "Ukraine's defeat" to fall into its own hands.
2024 is an election year in the United States, and neither the Democratic Party nor the Republican Party comes to power, and they don't want to see Ukraine defeated as soon as they come to power, which will be a huge political disaster.
Concept map of the U.S. election
The U.S. election will end in November 2024, and there is still half a year left before the election.
However, it is obvious that Ukraine does not have much combat effectiveness, and since the failure of the "great counteroffensive", Ukraine has basically lost its regional air defense capability and the ability to take the initiative to attack.
Zelensky himself admits that Ukraine has run out of weapons and ammunition and can no longer withstand a large-scale Russian offensive.
Therefore, the current situation in Ukraine can be said to be precarious, and if Russia attacks Ukraine before November 2024, the United States, whether it is a Democratic Party or a Republican Party, will be under great political pressure.
Russian army
Therefore, whether it is a Democratic government or a Republican government, they hope that Ukraine can at least hold out until its own political situation is stable.
In fact, the Democratic administration of the United States has long proposed this "60 billion aid plan for Ukraine", and Biden will mention this matter in 2023, but it was not passed because of the obstruction of the Republican Party.
Now that this bill has been passed suddenly, it is clear that the Democrats and Republicans have reached a consensus on this issue, and want to support Ukraine for at least another year through this aid.
The second is that this aid will not completely reverse Ukraine's decline on the battlefield.
Ukrainian army
The $60 billion aid is divided into several parts, of which only $13.8 billion is to help Ukraine replenish its military forces, and the rest is basically economic loans or other payments.
There is even $23.2 billion to replenish U.S. military stockpiles and $11.3 billion to support the deployment of U.S. forces in Eastern Europe.
True, although this money is nominally aid to Ukraine, the vast majority of it is spent on the US military.
And the special military aid that is clearly spent on Ukraine will also be difficult to make up for Ukraine's weapons gap.
In April 2024, Zelensky asked the United States for the Patriot air defense system, and there were 25 sets as soon as he opened his mouth.
Patriot air defense system
And the $13.8 billion "special military fund" is only enough for Ukraine to buy 13 Patriot air defense systems, not counting follow-up maintenance.
Add to that the fact that Ukraine still needs a lot of ammunition and a lot of corruption in the process, and the $60 billion can play a very limited role.
So in general, the United States is now assisting Ukraine with $60 billion, and it doesn't think about letting Ukraine win at all, but just letting Ukraine delay for a while so that it will not be subjected to political pressure.
Ukrainian army
Russia needs to strike at the Polish arsenal?
As for Russia's attack on Ukraine's weapons transit center in Poland and cutting off NATO's aid channel to Ukraine, it is actually unnecessary.
First, Ukraine's weapons transit center is in Poland, which means that this arsenal is under NATO military protection. A direct attack by Russia on this arsenal is equivalent to a direct strike on the "territory of NATO".
This kind of behavior is a very clear declaration of war. Although Russia maintains its advantage in the current Russia-Ukraine conflict, it does not mean that Russia can maintain a clear advantage if NATO ends.
Second, although NATO has provided Ukraine with a lot of military aid, Ukraine itself is running out. After more than two years of Russia-Ukraine conflict, there are basically only some old and weak women and children left in Ukraine.
Ukraine has no soldiers available to train white-haired old women
In December 2023, Zelensky said that he would expand the army by another 500,000, but he was met with collective opposition at home. This shows that Ukraine's current problem of troop resources has reached its limit, and it is difficult to recruit new troops on a large scale.
Without enough personnel, the role that NATO aid weapons to Ukraine will be relatively limited.
Third, it is difficult to say how much of a role the US military aid will play.
On the one hand, only more than 10 billion of the $60 billion is used for military aid to Ukraine, and on the other hand, there is a lot of corruption in both Ukraine and the United States.
When the time comes, Commissioner Smith will take a little, Councillor Alexander will take a little, and the people below will divide a little, and half of the money will be efficient.
Therefore, the United States' assistance to Ukraine this time cannot pose a substantial threat to Russia, but only prolongs the war.
How did Russia respond?
As for how the Russian side will respond, it is likely to ignore it directly, and then maintain the current low-intensity war with Ukraine.
Now the situation in the world is affecting the whole body, and Russia is also more cautious and will not easily expand the scale of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
Conceptual map of the Russia-Ukraine conflict
In case Ukraine and NATO are forced into a hurry at that time, and NATO is personally killed, Russia will become a country facing the "three wars".
Therefore, the safest thing for Russia is to continue to maintain the current low-intensity scale of the war, squeeze out Ukraine's last military potential, and force Ukraine to surrender.
Although Ukraine has NATO's assistance, its human resources are limited, and it is impossible for NATO to let its own army fight for Ukraine on a large scale, right?
Wounded Ukrainian soldiers
Therefore, with the current situation facing Ukraine, it will be as short as one or two years, and as long as three or five years, there should not be enough manpower to participate in this war.
Resources:
[1] Global Times, "Ukraine discusses another 500,000 conscriptions, Zelensky: No one knows when the war will end"
[2] Qilu One Point: "The United States has aided Ukraine with more than 60 billion US dollars, where will the money go?"