[The global population is moving towards 8 billion | The decline in fertility is not unsolvable; Is population growth positively correlated with innovation? Source: The Economist Business Theory The Economist Group
According to the United Nations World Population Prospects 2022 report, the global population will reach 8 billion by the 15th of this month. This number will continue to grow in the coming decades, but at a slower rate. In January, Pope Francis warned that declining fertility could lead to a "demographic winter" and drag down the health of the world economy. Total fertility has now fallen below 2.1 in all European countries, as have many developing countries. Economists have long argued that such a decline is inevitable. But a series of new studies suggest that fertility may undergo another shift in the later stages of economic development. In rich countries, fertility rates may rise again, or at least decline more slowly, if customs, policies, and markets make it easier for women to balance childbearing and employment. How to understand the demographic changes in the era of declining birthrate and aging?
Economists have long argued that such a decline is inevitable. In the well-known fertility model proposed by Nobel laureate economist Gary Becker and others in the 1960s, people played a key role in the trade-off between "quantity and quality" of having children. As countries become richer and the rewards on education rise, it is conceivable that families will have fewer children but devote more resources to them. As women have more employment options, the opportunity cost of their time increases, making it harder for them to balance family and career.
Supporting this theory, many places have already undergone a "demographic transition" from poor, high-fertility countries to rich, low-fertility countries. In some countries, the transformation has been so dramatic that the population has even begun to decline. Japan's population peaked at 128 million in 2008 and has declined by about 3 million since then. Many demographers speculate that China's population is also declining.
However, a series of new studies suggest that fertility may undergo another shift in the later stages of economic development. In a recent literature review published by Matthias Doepke of Northwestern University, fertility rates may rise again, or at least decline more slowly, if customs, policies, and markets make it easier for women to balance childbearing and employment. For example, in countries with supportive family policies or fathers taking on more childcare responsibilities, working women can be expected to have more children than in the past. If you look at it from within the country, the new fertility pattern becomes clearer...
The author of the new book, Supergrowth, argues that people should be able to have as many children as they want. Because children not only eat with their mouths open, but also think with their brains, more people also mean more innovations, which they believe will in turn solve many of the problems caused by population growth. The price of time shows that the world is becoming richer at an alarming rate.
Population and prosperity
More people not only consume more, but also innovate
Marian Tupy, a libertarian think tank, and Gale Pooley of Brigham Young University argue that people should be able to have as many children as they want. Because children not only eat with their mouths open, but also think with their brains, more people also mean more innovations, which they believe will in turn solve many of the problems caused by population growth.
This idea is not the first of its kind. The late economist Julian Simon and the demographic pessimist Paul Ehrlich made a bet in 1980 on the relationship between population and innovation. Ehrlich was convinced that global resources were being depleted, so the price of a basket of commodities (chromium, copper, nickel, tin and tungsten) would rise over the next decade. Simon believes that human ingenuity will unleash new resources, so these goods will be cheaper. In the end Simon won.
Tuppi and Pooley expanded Simon's analysis. They looked at the price changes of more goods over a longer time span (some data dating back to 1850). They also used different measures of value. They focus on the "price of time," which is how long it takes to make enough money to buy something. This approach yielded some encouraging results. As people invent more ways to find and use resources, they are becoming more abundant (i.e. more accessible)...
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