According to US media, Putin will visit China on May 15. Before leaving, Putin still has one more important thing to do, that is, to properly handle the issue of personnel arrangements in the country, especially the appointment of important government officials. Over the past 20 years, there have been almost no changes to important positions such as Russia's foreign minister and defense minister, ensuring the continuity and stability of Russia's domestic and foreign policies. But this time, Putin has made a major adjustment in the post of defense minister.
Putin
According to Xinhua News Agency, on May 12, Putin signed a presidential decree nominating Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Belousov, who was previously in charge of economic affairs, as the new defense minister, and Shoigu was appointed secretary of the Russian Federal Security Council with a higher rank. In Putin's personnel appointments this time, the top leaders of almost all powerful departments have been retained, and the change in the post of defense minister has indeed come beyond the expectations of the outside world.
Although he did not come from a military background and did not have the experience of performing his duties as a high-ranking general, Shoigu showed extraordinary ability in dealing with major emergencies as early as the Yeltsin era. Later, he became Putin's close partner and served as defense minister for more than 11 years. However, since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Shoigu has been questioned many times. For example, in the second half of 2022, the Russian army suffered a rout in the counteroffensive of the Ukrainian army, and Shoigu was accused of being too "weak" by hardliners in Russia. Last year's "rebellion" of Prigogin also pointed the finger at Shoigu and demanded his resignation. While Putin did not make any compromises, he also did not publicly support Shoigu.
Shoigu
Just a few months ago, Shoigu's aide, Russian Deputy Defense Minister Ivanov, was arrested for taking bribes, and many analysts at that time believed that this would have an impact on Shoigu's status. But at that time, the outside world generally believed that this was just a knock on the top of the Russian military, and they did not expect Putin to directly remove Shoigu. But this time Putin's approach was quite mild, and there was no direct showdown, but let Shoigu rise and fall secretly, at least to preserve his face.
The Chinese side of Belousov, who succeeded Shoigu, is no stranger, and he has visited China many times. But Belousov is an economist who doesn't have any military experience on his resume. Although Gerasimov, the chief of the General Staff of the Russian army, who is responsible for directing operations, has been retained, it is indeed a surprise to the outside world to let an economist with no military experience take over as defense minister.
Belousov
In this regard, the explanation given by the Kremlin is that it is very important to include the economy of the strong sector in the national economy. Russia's military spending is now approaching that of the Soviet Union in the mid-1980s, so Putin wants a civilian with expertise in the economic field to serve as defense minister to ensure that defense spending is in the country's overall interest.
Although the Russian defense minister has been replaced, there are no other major changes in the top level of the Russian military, Putin's ruling position is still stable, and there are no major changes in policy, so it is expected that there will not be too many spillover effects. However, the next countries that have friendly relations with Russia will inevitably need to start a dialogue with the new defense minister to establish a new working relationship.
Sino-Russian relations
It is worth mentioning that just as the Russian defense minister was replaced, there were new changes in the Russian army's style of play in Ukraine. Recently, the Russian army suddenly launched a fierce attack on Kharkiv in the north, and it has also operated in the Kherson region in the south. Over the past period, the offensive line of the Russian army has been largely confined to the eastern region. Many analysts believe that the change in the Russian army's fighting style is mainly aimed at establishing a "buffer zone" in the northern region.
But now it seems that behind this decision, political factors may outweigh military needs. On the one hand, the U.S. election is approaching, and for Russia, it is obvious that it hopes that Trump can return to power, so the Russian army needs to achieve greater victories on the battlefield, so that Biden's aid to Ukraine policy will be questioned, thereby impacting its election results. On the other hand, the change of the Russian defense minister will also affect the Russian army's style of play to a certain extent.
Russia-Ukraine conflict
For us, most of Putin's new cabinet nominees are familiar faces from China. As long as Putin remains the president of Russia, Sino-Russian relations will continue to develop steadily. The change of Russia's defense minister, at least for now, will have little impact on Sino-Russian relations.