Following the relaxation of Beijing's purchase restriction policy, Shenzhen has also relaxed its purchase restriction policy.
On May 6, the Shenzhen Municipal Housing and Construction Bureau issued the "Notice on Further Optimizing the Real Estate Policy" to optimize the housing purchase restriction policy by district. Families with non-Shenzhen household registration and adult singles (including divorced) are limited to purchasing one house, and the individual income tax and social insurance payment requirements are adjusted from 3 years to 1 year for the purchase of housing in Yantian District, Bao'an District (excluding Xin'an Street and Xixiang Street), Longgang District, Longhua District, Pingshan District, Guangming District and Dapeng New District. Households with household registration in Shenzhen with two or more minor children may purchase one more house within the aforementioned area on the basis of implementing the existing housing purchase restriction policy.
Shenzhen's relaxation of purchase restrictions is the same as Beijing's, which is to relax the purchase conditions by selecting regions, so that residents in need can only buy one house in the relaxed area, and they can only buy one house, unlike the third and fourth tier cities, where there is no limit on the quantity. This also means that whether it is Beijing or Shenzhen, it is a limited relaxation, not an unlimited relaxation.
So, will such a policy relaxation lead to speculation? Will property speculators enter the market again and speculate on housing prices in relevant areas, so that residents will not be able to buy houses at current prices? And how can the relevant regions prevent this from happening? Are there any effective means of prevention?
We note that in Shenzhen's policy, for non-Shenzhen residents to buy a house, divorced intending people can also be limited to buying a set. The question is, if it is a property speculator or a housing investor, will there be phenomena such as "fake divorce" again? Can a single person who has gone through a "divorce" within a short period of time after the policy is introduced, and knows that it is a "fake divorce" at a glance, be able to buy a house? If it is handled, isn't it a kind of speculation? Is it consistent with the original intention of policy relaxation? Or as long as the house can be sold, leave it alone?
Not only that, since such a policy has been introduced, will those single people who are not registered in Shenzhen become the carrier of house speculation and help property speculators buy houses? Anyway, it can be one set per person, as long as an agreement is signed between the speculator and the single, and the speculator gives the single person a certain remuneration, the speculation can be completed, and the housing prices in the relevant areas will inevitably rise. As a result, there may be more costs for residents who are truly eligible. This should not be the original intention of the policy, nor is it the purpose that the relaxation of the purchase restriction policy hopes to achieve.
A reality that must be faced is that among the non-Shenzhen resident families and single people, very few can really afford to buy a house in Shenzhen. Their qualifications to buy a house are likely to be taken advantage of by property speculators. After all, housing prices in Shenzhen have reached a point where ordinary people can only hope for them.
The meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee did not once again emphasize the positioning of "houses are for living, not for speculation", which does not mean that the positioning of "housing for living in, not for speculation" has been cancelled, but only based on the actual situation of the current real estate market, appropriately relaxing the policy, so as to restore the normal order of the real estate market, not to encourage speculation, or regardless of speculation, regardless of housing prices. If that happens, everything you've done before will come to naught.
For the real estate market, stability remains the main objective. Stability not only requires the market to get out of the downturn as soon as possible, but also includes the stability of housing prices, rather than letting housing prices return to the upward channel again because of policy adjustments. If this is the case, the trust of the broad masses of the population in the policy will be greatly reduced, and the prestige of the government among the broad masses of residents will also be problematic. Not to mention, today's young generation, who are no longer their parents, brothers and sisters, must have a new house of their own, what they need is a relaxed and happy life. They won't be interested in a mortgage, and even if they do, they don't want to add stress and burden to their lives. Once the mortgage takes a toll on their lives, they will definitely choose to rent rather than buy. In such a situation, only by lowering the house price can it be possible for them to have the idea of buying a house. Otherwise, it will be increasingly difficult for the real estate market to return to normal.
The original intention of the relaxation of the purchase restriction policy in first-tier cities is not to speculate in real estate or invest in real estate, but to add some consumption momentum to the market and release the consumer demand suppressed by the policy. However, no one can guarantee that property speculators will not enter the market and use various means to speculate on houses, in this regard, the first-tier cities that have relaxed the purchase restriction policy should take precautions as soon as possible to avoid the problem of speculation and avoid housing prices rising again. Today's market cannot withstand the impact of rising housing prices, and the psychology of the majority of residents to buy houses will be completely washed away in the rise in housing prices.
Therefore, pay attention to the adjustment of purchase restriction policies in first-tier cities, and pay more attention to whether there are measures to prevent speculation and rising housing prices in first-tier cities. Today's real estate market, not more than a decade ago, can be adjusted over and over again. An adjustment, a decline in residents' confidence and enthusiasm for buying a house. After a few iterations, the market is really going to have a big problem.