March became a watershed for the power battery industry.
From the perspective of the industry itself, in March, the output of continental power batteries reached a record high, a total of 39.2GWh, and the output of power batteries in one quarter reached 100.6GWh, basically the volume of the year before 2020 was produced, which can see the strong demand for power batteries.
In terms of loading volume, the power battery loading volume in March was 21.4GWh, which is also close to the high point of 26.22GWh in December 2022, which also shows that car companies are also accelerating the digestion of these batteries. Of course, the loading capacity of 51.3GWh is only half of the 100.6GWh of production.
From the perspective of short- and medium-term demand, the sudden epidemic and corresponding control measures have a great impact on the follow-up.
According to the National Health Commission, there are 34 high-risk areas and 539 medium-risk areas in the country. In the past two months, the core areas of China's passenger car sales have implemented lockdown policies to varying degrees/scopes.
In addition, the top 60 cities in the national passenger car sales in 2021 have accounted for more than 60% of the national passenger car sales. There are as many as 49 cities with various types of sealing and control measures, accounting for more than 80%, and these cities accounted for more than 53% of sales in China's passenger car market last year.
In fact, the sealing and control measures vary slightly from place to place, which has a great impact on the production of the automotive industry and the purchase of cars by residents. From the current point of view, this is a stage inflection point, the rise of the entire boom will have some volatility, in layman's terms, from the power battery company to the car company's warehouse on the speed of the car will be further extended. Of course, this does not affect the long-term development of power batteries.
In addition to the monthly data, after the analysis of the power battery insurance data, some conclusions can be drawn:
1) From the overall output point of view, the application of lithium iron phosphate is becoming more and more extensive, but the use of lithium iron phosphate by vehicle companies is also distinguished by different car series. From the perspective of foreign car companies, the only large-scale use of lithium iron phosphate is Tesla, and other joint ventures and foreign brands have not been used on a large scale. Among Chinese brands, like BYD in addition to the popularity of the whole series, Aean and Euler also use lithium iron phosphate in their own high-end models. In the field of A00 pure electric, Wuling, Chery and Changan are all using lithium iron phosphate batteries as low-cost solutions.
2) In 2021, there is a price difference of about 1-1.5 mao/Wh between iron lithium and ternary, especially cylindrical iron lithium to make the price very low; with the overall price of power batteries rising by more than 30%, replacing the nickel 55 battery cell of the high-voltage system with iron lithium still has certain advantages from the cost point of view. With the transmission of car prices to the consumer market, the demand for lithium iron phosphate is still growing faster than that of medium nickel ternary. And from the perspective of new force car companies, the 400-500 km of vehicle use of three yuan, in fact, does not reflect the characteristics of three yuan. At present, lithium iron phosphate can already cover different mileage under the CTP arrangement with sufficient space, and replace the original ternary model.
According to SNE's recent information, when discussing the next wave of major orders in 2024-2025, South Korean battery companies will discuss with global car companies to increase the price of electric vehicle batteries by 30% to 40% due to the price of raw materials.
Of course, this matter is under the premise of a new round of orders in 2024-2025, and it is necessary to negotiate a new long-term contract with the car company. Global car companies believe that square batteries are safer, so they are urging Korean battery partners to replace the currently produced soft pack batteries with square batteries (the packaging technology that the world may change from soft packs to square shell laminations, similar to the long knives, short knives and designs that have not yet been officially released), soft pack batteries are easier to inflate than square batteries, so square shell laminations have become the main route around the world.
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Data on the total number of power batteries
Looking at the first quarter of the data, there is really reason for optimism.
In March, the production of power batteries in the mainland totaled 39.2GWh, an increase of 247.3% year-on-year and 23.3% month-on-month.
In the first quarter, the production of power batteries accumulated 100.6GWh, an increase of 206.9% year-on-year.
Seeing such figures, there is no reason not to be happy about the development of China's power battery industry, especially after experiencing a linear high growth in 2021, and 2022 can grow at a higher slope on this basis.
The situation of monthly production of power batteries
From the perspective of output, the weakness of ternary batteries is still visible, ternary production is 15.6GWh, while lithium iron phosphate batteries are 23.6GWh, and ternary accounts for 39.7% and is still downgrading. The year-on-year increase of 167.3% and the iron lithium of 332.9%, the difference is more than doubled.
In the first quarter, ternary batteries accumulated 38.0GWh, and lithium iron phosphate batteries accumulated 62.4GWh, accounting for 37.8% and 62.0% respectively, and the growth rate was 113.7% and 317.2%, respectively.
Production is also a leading indicator, representing changes in subsequent demand. The higher growth rate of lithium iron phosphate characterizes the rapid expansion of several major enterprises, mainly including BYD and Tesla (Ningde era). Behind it is the impetus of explosive models.
The growth classification within the production
In terms of loading volume, the power battery loading volume in March was 21.4GWh, which is close to the demand data of the fourth quarter of last year. Ternary batteries 8.2GWh, accounting for 38.3% of the total installed vehicles. Lithium iron phosphate batteries are 13.2GWh, accounting for 61.6% of the total installed vehicles.
In the first quarter, the total installed volume of power batteries was 51.3GWh, and the cumulative loading volume of ternary batteries was 21.4GWh, accounting for 41.7% of the total installed vehicles. Lithium iron phosphate accumulated 29.8 GWh, accounting for 58.2% of the total installed vehicles. From the loading data, we can see the hot demand for power batteries.
Installed power battery data from 2019 to 2022
In the first quarter, the most batteries were used in pure electric passenger cars, accounting for 80.59% of 41.24GWh, and the second place was plug-in hybrid passenger cars, 4.91GWh, accounting for 9.59%. Passenger cars account for more than 90% of the current demand for power batteries, and commercial vehicle buses and special vehicles are 3.36GWh and 4.91GWh, respectively.
Where power batteries went in the first quarter
From the supplier point of view, although there are still 39 power battery companies to achieve car loading in March, the top 3, top 5, and top 10 power battery companies have installed power batteries of 16.8GWh (accounting for 78.3%), 18.5GWh (accounting for 86.4%) and 20.4GWh (accounting for 95.4%, that is to say, the next 29 companies only have less than 5% of the market).
This basically means that in the short term, only by entering the top 10 can it have the opportunity to keep up, and the number of top 2 and subsequent 3-10 companies is very different, and only differentiated playing styles can occupy the position.
Putting aside the needs of Tesla, ATD has been able to maintain a considerable level in the installation of lithium iron phosphate and the Ningde era, and the follow-up AVIC lithium battery, EWELL lithium energy and hive energy are rapidly increasing the shipment of lithium iron phosphate.
Loading capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries by enterprise
At present, the power batteries that continue to be invested in the ternary field mainly include AVIC Technology, Fu Neng Technology, Hive Energy and Sunwoda in addition to the Ningde era.
Vehicles with ternary batteries in different enterprises
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From the car company side to see the choice of suppliers
If you look at the car series, Tesla and Chinese companies in the passenger car lithium iron phosphate speed deployment speed is the fastest, the proportion of ternary, BYD reduced to 2.39%, Wuling only 6.26%, Tesla 17.05%, the second echelon of Chery 35.6%, Changan 28.61%, Weilai with pure ternary batteries is only 42.88%.
The situation of the three yuan ratio in March
If we further subdivide into the main new power enterprises, we can see that with the increasing supply of lithium iron phosphate enterprises, especially the mass production of iron lithium batteries that support 500 km endurance, the replacement speed of iron lithium led by Tesla and Weilai will gradually accelerate, because this does have a cost advantage.
Ternary and lithium iron phosphate case
In terms of battery selection, we can comb through the situation of Xiaopeng and Aeon. The approximate demand of these two companies is about 1-1.5GWh per month, and they have achieved 3 suppliers at present, and they are the first two mainly, supplemented by the third. Both companies have chosen independent backups around fast-charging batteries, so they are still more valuable for reference. At present, the Ningde era occupies about 1/3 of the supply of these two companies, and AVIC lithium battery has achieved more than half of the order distribution due to the tight tracking of ternary batteries before.
Two major auto companies are the choice of battery companies
March is a good time, but many friends may not be very optimistic about the follow-up situation, in fact, setbacks are very normal.
The power battery industry does need to make electric vehicle companies themselves resistant to subsidy declines, parts and chip supply and cost fluctuations, although in 2021 soaring, but it is still relatively vulnerable. We still have to look at its development dialectically, the growth is gratifying, and the sword blade is sharpened.