Written by / Long Shihui
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Design / Zoi.
China's auto market is really moving towards electrification without turning back.
At the end of last year, many experts estimated that the mainland's new energy sales would reach 5.5 million vehicles in 2022, and even expected to exceed the 6 million vehicle mark. Moreover, after the beginning of 2022, the "lack of core and less lithium" has helped to increase the price of raw materials, the geopolitical crisis, and the upgrading of epidemic prevention measures in new energy vehicle sales cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, which will definitely affect the retail sales of the new energy market in the first quarter. It is true that when the first quarter of the automobile market data was released yesterday by the Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the resilience and potential of the mainland new energy market really exceeded the expectations of many people.
According to statistics, the cumulative retail sales of passenger cars in the first quarter of 2022 were 4.915 million units, down 4.5% year-on-year; in the same period, the domestic retail sales of new energy passenger cars were 1.07 million units, up 146.6% year-on-year, obviously continuing the trend of "new energy" locomotives driving the market last year. And in March, the domestic retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 28.2%, a significant increase of 17.6% over the same period last year, do not forget that March is the node where many new energy vehicle companies announced price increases, although there is a price increase deadline approaching the stimulation of the market, but the overall trend of "domestic consumer recognition of new energy vehicles has been greatly improved" has been irreversible.
In just one year, the independent new people replaced the old joint ventures
A year ago, we were also studying the monthly list of almost "similarities", especially the advantages of joint venture brand cars. But I didn't expect that in just over a year, many lists have undergone subtle changes. Today, the most beautiful Hongguang MINI, Model Y, ANDD DM-i series on the list, can you imagine that they are all new models of no more than 3 years?
There is no doubt that we are in the era of "new and old alternation", the overall trend of sales at the beginning of 2022 is lower than expected, and among the 230,000 vehicles in the market that have decreased year-on-year, the joint venture loss is greater than that of independent brands, and the retail market share of independent brands is 48%, an increase of 9.7% compared with the same period last year. It is worth noting that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in independent brands is as high as 46%, and the latest round of collective upward movement of independent brands has obtained obvious dividends from the tide of electrification.
In the past, the sales volume of car companies was TOP 5, and the ratio of joint venture VS independent brands was 3:2 all year round, and BYD replaced SAIC-GM-Wuling, while Changan squeezed out the depressed SAIC Volkswagen with the balanced strength of various market segments, and the power of independent in the TOP 5 was finally higher than that of the joint venture.
What is more "interesting" is that if compared with the list of cars and SUVs in the first quarter of 2021-2022, the speed of new people replacing old people is more amazing: Xuanyi, New Langyi, Haval H6, Changan CS75 and other head fuel "large households", this year's opening sales have declined to varying degrees, while Hongguang MINI, BYD Qin/ Song two DM-i models, Model Y is sitting on the list, to achieve a new round of "new and old replacement". As for the classic models such as Corolla, Civic, and Tiguan, which have previously sat in the TOP 10, they have also been surpassed by models such as Emgrand, Changan CS55, Mercedes-Benz GLC, BMW X3 and other models that have been performing well in the past.
The trend of the list of cars and SUVs is more and more proof that new energy vehicles are no longer limited to their own comparison, especially in the field of plug-in hybrid, with BYD as the representative of the independent plug-in VS joint venture fuel does not fall behind, to achieve "plug-in hybrid is the first step in the transformation of oil car potential passengers"; as for the pure electricity field, the characteristics of the market "two big" are still prominent, the list is missing Model 3, but Tesla Model Y can still play, Hongguang MINI led a number of A0-level electric vehicles on the list, do not underestimate QQ ice cream, The ability of Benben EV and Chery eQ is better than that of any car of the new forces.
Of course, this round of "new people for old people" drama is limited to the market below 300,000, the list of high-end cars/SUVs in the first quarter of this year is still full of familiar faces, and the BBA matrix is still firmly dominant. The Association of Automobile Manufacturers announced that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in luxury vehicles in the first quarter was 32%, but in fact, in addition to several popular cars such as Model, Ideal ONE, Weilai ES6, BMW 5 Series Plug-in, etc., the face of new energy new cars that can be taken in the luxury market is difficult to find, is it difficult to find new forces to sell more than 400,000 new cars to "shuffle"?
In the first quarter, the new forces that have no shortage of market attention and topical war of words are still "small", not as good as the new energy brands of traditional car companies such as Eian and Changan New Energy; but the biggest value of the new forces in addition to sales is to enable more Chinese people to accept the "new rules" of the electrification era faster and more conveniently.
"Pause button" affects the joint venture counter-offensive?
In the first quarter, the "washing board" of new energy vehicles in major lists and the rise of independent brands will be the next city in the middle of the year, or will the joint venture fuel vehicles win back a round? The next two variables are worth thinking about.
The most important of these is the spread of the epidemic in Jilin, Shanghai, Guangdong, Shandong and other places since March 2022, which has tested the suspension of work of car companies, the interruption of supply chains, and the poor connection of logistics. Among them, the biggest impact should be Shanghai's SAIC Volkswagen, SAIC-GM, Tesla and Jilin FAW series, BMW Brilliance and other car companies.
It is understood that since March 28, when the epidemic in Shanghai worsened, Tesla stopped production at the Shanghai Gigafactory, and as of now, the factory has resumed work indefinitely. From March to April, it has been discontinued for 16 days, reducing Tesla's production by 36,000 vehicles. There is no doubt that this will directly affect Tesla's deliveries in April and even overseas markets.
In the first quarter of the SUV TOP 15 list, the north and south Volkswagen did not have an SUV on the list, and the wave of epidemics in Shanghai and Jilin certainly hit the two a lot, there is news that during the closed-loop production period of SAIC Volkswagen Anting, the daily production capacity fell by nearly 40%, and as of April 10, faw 5 automakers stopped production losses of nearly 400,000 vehicles.
Of course, the impact of the suspension of production will also be temporary, and the loss of production figures, almost all car companies have enough production capacity to make up for it in the short term; a greater test comes from the supply system, shanghai, Guangdong, Jilin auto industry, covering the car company headquarters, research and development centers, auto parts manufacturers and other complete chain, can be described as "a hair and move the whole body", if the sealing time is uncertain, then it is bound to affect the new car listing time, delivery link and even retail price increases.
Therefore, it also leads to the second variable, many joint venture car companies regard 2022 as a key year to roll out the new energy track. If the Beijing Auto Show is not postponed, we will see the joint venture full of pure electric/plug-in hybrid new energy vehicles and their plans to accelerate electrification. At present, the new energy penetration rate of the joint venture brand is only 4.3%, especially in the field of insertion and mixing has been independently torn open a gap, the car market has been pressed the "pause button" by the epidemic, the joint venture brand must not only complete the promotion and listing of new energy vehicles according to the department, but also accelerate the transfer to the new energy track of the "brand capital" accumulated in the traditional car market, so as to realize the selling of their own new energy vehicles; otherwise, the rhythm of "new people replacing old people" in the first quarter is more rapid, because since the success of BYD's plug-and-mix strategy, Geely, Great Wall, A large wave of chaotic armies in Chang'an was coming.
Write at the end
In just one year, comparing the same market sales list is like reading the difference between the "new world" and the "old world", which is really surprising. But think about it, in the "oil to electricity" this century has not been the big inflection point, the only constant is the change.
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