On April 11, the WeChat public account of the Association released an analysis of the national passenger car market in March 2022, and the domestic retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in March has reached 28.2%.
It has always been concluded that after more than 20% penetration, new energy vehicles will enter a new stage.
Of course, some people believe that the popularity of new energy vehicles is only a temporary "Elvis presley fallacy", and the continuous decline may be not far ahead. But at the moment, the wheels of new energy vehicles are rolling, and there is a great momentum to step on the traditional cars.
BYD announced the abandonment of fuel vehicles, before Toyota launched 18 new energy models, followed by many traditional car manufacturers such as Volkswagen.
In the face of the new forces of car-making that are good at storytelling, the advantages of traditional car manufacturers have not yet emerged, and may even become a burden. The new forces of car manufacturing have not only attracted consumers, but also attracted the capital market.
The new forces of car-making are aiming at Tesla, and naturally there are back waves that benchmark new forces.
The final pattern of the new energy automobile industry is undecided.
1
After the penetration rate of 20%.
According to the March sales data of the new car-making forces in 2022, Xiaopeng ranked first with 15,414 vehicles, Nezha ranked second with 12,026 vehicles, the ideal 11,034 vehicles ranked third, the zero-run 10,059 vehicles ranked fourth, and Weilai ranked fifth with 9,985 vehicles.
Oil prices have risen, and four tanks of oil are equal to the ridicule of an Emma electric car, which invisibly makes people pay attention to the advantages of electric vehicles. However, the price of raw materials for electric vehicles has risen, the news of the price increase of new energy vehicles has risen one after another, and the car is not in the shackles, not bound by fossil fuels, and also bound by lithium and nickel.
Compared with fuel vehicles, not only in terms of price, the policy cost of new energy vehicles is also higher than that of fuel vehicles. There is no ultra-long endurance, and imperfect energy replenishment infrastructure, which limits the expansion of new energy vehicles, but these do not prevent users from choosing new energy vehicles.
New energy vehicles provide huge imagination space and a new use experience, which brings new opportunities to the lack of differentiation in the automobile stock market, all of which make up for the uncertainty of the new energy automobile industry.
Tesla's leading position is built on its constant benchmarking. From fast charging to autonomous driving, from sales channels to production methods, Tesla has greatly reduced the trial and error costs of latecomers.
At present, there are only two types of new energy vehicles in the mainland market: Tesla and others. The new forces are tied to each other, ANDD bets on new energy, batteries, and car-making dual-track layouts, but still relies on plug-in hybrids to rush sales. According to the calculation of the Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in 2021, the specific sales of pure electric models and plug-and-mix models in BYD's overall business of new energy vehicles will be 320,000 and 270,000 units, respectively.
The layout of traditional automobile manufacturers has been one step slower, ready to fight back under the impact of new forces, but what they can do at present is to defend their existing market.
In the discussion of the pattern of new energy vehicles, the media likes to compare smartphones and compare Tesla and BYD to Apple and Huawei.
Many people are not skeptical about the future of new energy vehicles, but how big is the future market? Even if the auto market is reshuffled, Tesla, with the largest market share, has a market value of nearly two trillion US dollars, how much room is there to rise?
As concentration increases, latecomers will face higher thresholds and more fierce competition. Will there still be a chance for latecomers?
Wei Xiaoli, a new car-making force, has invested heavily in research and development, hoping to rely on independent research and development to enhance competitiveness. Traditional automakers cooperate with technology companies such as Huawei and Baidu, but they are not optimistic about the market. Handing over the core technology to others, the automobile manufacturer will become a foundry, which is undoubtedly a disaster for the enterprise.
At present, there are many new energy vehicle brands and models, and there are also differences in the technical route, so it is the key to make differentiation and find the right target market.
2
Can Aehan seize the opportunity?
Founded in July 2017, GAC Aeon is a subsidiary of GAC Group specializing in the research and development of pure electric new energy vehicles, and currently has a number of pure electric models such as AION S, AION LX, AION V, AION Y, etc., with sales of 42,000, 60,100 and 120,100 units from 2019 to 2021, respectively.
In March 2022, GAC Aean's sales exceeded 20,000 units for the first time, completing 20,300 units, an increase of 189.70% year-on-year and 138.29% month-on-month.
In January 2021, GAC Aeon released its new battery technology - graphene-based fast-charging battery, and announced that the new energy vehicle equipped with the battery can reach 1,000 kilometers.
However, according to the first financial report, at the end of 2021, the automotive vertical media Understand Chedi conducted a winter endurance test on 41 popular new energy vehicles on the market, and the endurance rate of GAC Aian's two cars ranked in the last class, with a completion rate of only 37.71% and 38.67%. The official cruising range of 600km is only about 230km.
Endurance and charging difficulties have always been the main pain points of new energy vehicles. But the product technology competition is all-round, and the performance and price are mixed in.
Compared with the new car-making forces, Aeon has no advantage in brand awareness and technological innovation.
Feng Xingya, general manager of GAC Group, mentioned that one of the purposes of mixed reform is to change "Wei Xiaoli" into "Ai Xiaowei". Replacing any of Wei Xiaoli may still be a dream for the current Aeon.
The ideal car is product-driven, Xiaopeng Automobile is technology-driven, and Weilai Automobile is brand image-driven.
With the increase in penetration rate, the price of new energy vehicles has also become an important influencing factor in sales. Higher cost performance is certainly an advantage in the consumer market, which is conducive to seizing market share.
In terms of sales, the ideal 11,034 is far inferior to Aean's 20,317. In 2021, gac motor essecourt annual sales of 122756 160,000 units of AION S sales reached 69,219 units, accounting for 56.38% of the total sales, is also a common model of online ride-hailing.
The same best-selling model AION Y is also priced at about 140,000, which is completely different from the main high-end Wei Xiaoli. In terms of technical reserves, whether it is Xiaopeng, which focuses on intelligent Xiaopeng, Weilai, which focuses on high-quality experience, or the ideal of a clearly positioned daddy car, finding your own positioning may be the most important problem for Aian at present.
While the new forces are plagued by production capacity, backed by GAC, Aeon has a strong advantage in production capacity. On December 31 last year, GAC Group announced that its subsidiary GAC Aeon plans to implement a capacity construction project of the second plant, with a planned production capacity of 200,000 vehicles per year, which will be completed and put into operation in December 2022, at which time, together with the expansion of the first plant, GAC Aean will have a production capacity of 400,000.
Price increases have become a marketing tool for new energy vehicles, and under the tide of new energy vehicle price increases, GAC Aean also announced price increases. The subsidy policy for the purchase of new energy vehicles in 2022 will be terminated on December 31, 2022, and vehicles licensed after December 31, 2022 will no longer be subsidized.
Whether all this will affect GAC Aean is still unknown.
3
Aeon stormed the IPO
With the completion of GAC's Aean mixed reform, it has become inevitable to seek an IPO.
The new car-making force "Wei Xiaoli" has been listed successively. The new energy brands of traditional automobile manufacturers have also opened the road to listing, and the luxury car brand Porsche is also ready for independent listing.
However, after the listing of the new forces, the stock prices fluctuated, the production capacity was insufficient, the security problems were frequent, and the users and capital markets remained on the sidelines. Only Tesla's market value has ridden the dust, and Musk has been sent to the richest man. Some Wall Street analysts say 60 percent of Tesla's valuation comes from areas such as software revenue.
The market is optimistic about the unlimited imagination of new energy vehicles, and many people believe that the era is evolving from the mobile Internet era with base on smart phones to the space Internet era of base on smart electric vehicles.
The market's overvaluation of Tesla is based on its positioning of its technology companies, not pure car companies. The model of hardware and software collocation similar to Apple gives the capital market unlimited reverie.
Li Xiang, founder of Ideal Auto, said at the performance conference call that intelligent experience profoundly affects consumer perception. Intelligence brings differentiation. Therefore, the new forces of car manufacturing after removing the intelligent filter will inevitably cause questions in the capital market. Even if the new energy vehicle market replaces traditional vehicles, the total demand will not grow exponentially, and the existing market value still needs to control the water.
The further development of EAN requires more financial support to enable it to stand out in the existing competitive landscape. New forces such as Wei Xiaoli have always been subject to production capacity. Backed by GAC, Aeon has established an independent production capacity, and official information shows that the company's total production capacity will reach 400,000 units by the end of 2022.
As of April 12, the overall market value of GAC Group was only 120.4 billion yuan, while the three major new domestic car-making forces, WEILAI Automobile, Xiaopeng Automobile and Ideal Automobile, were 333.38, 228 and 26 billion US dollars respectively.
The secondary market's expectations for the new energy market have declined, and the market value of the three major new car-making forces has fallen sharply compared with the beginning of the year.
In the context of an unclear market pattern, it may be difficult for Aeon to attack the IPO to harvest the capital it wants.
END