Text | Zhang Xing
Edit | Wang Fangjie
Xiao Xu in Xinzhou, Shanxi Province, decided to buy a new energy vehicle.
As a young man in a fourth-tier city who is about to enter the palace of marriage, a new car is his just need, while a new energy vehicle is not. But he decided to buy one because it was decent and fun.
According to the data of Anxin Securities Research Center, in February this year, the proportion of new energy passenger cars in new sales of passenger cars in cities with non-restricted purchase restrictions exceeded 50% for the first time, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in cities with non-restricted purchases has reached 19.5%.
Since the traditional oil vehicles are unlimited and unlimited, the sales of non-dual urban new energy vehicles are considered to represent the real market demand.
The migration of consumption power is not completely spontaneous, and there are a series of policy guidelines behind it.
In the past two years, the protagonist of the car going to the countryside has changed from a fuel vehicle to a new energy vehicle. According to the latest statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, a total of 1.068 million new energy vehicles will be sold in the countryside in 2021, an increase of 169.2% year-on-year, about 10 percentage points higher than the overall market growth rate, and the contribution rate is close to 30%.
In fact, in the traditional concept, new energy vehicles are not suitable for the county market, the main reason is that there are too few charging piles, and running long distances will encounter the problem of charging difficulties. But "The Most Talked" learned that in the past two years, with the new energy vehicles going to the countryside, the third, fourth, and fifth-tier cities and counties and towns in various places have launched a round of "Great Leap Forward" of charging piles.
For example, in Xinzhou, the local charging network built for new energy vehicles made Xiao Xu feel exceptionally convenient. "The community we are in is an old residential area, and the power is insufficient so it cannot be installed with household piles, but across the road from my unit is a large shopping mall, and the parking lot of this mall is equipped with more than 40 new energy charging spaces, and the parking fee for new energy vehicles is free."
Therefore, in Xiao Xu's impression, from the second half of 2020 to the present, there have been many classmates and friends around him, who have replaced new energy vehicles, and the 4S stores of major new energy brands in Xinzhou City, Shanxi, which were not valued, have gradually become popular.
1
face
In people's traditional impression, third-tier cities and the following markets are the world of A00-class models.
The data seems to confirm this concept, in February this year, in the non-restricted purchase city, the top ten new energy hot models are SAIC Wuling Hongguang Mini EV, Tesla Model Y, BYD Song PLUS DM, BYD Qin PLUS DM, Chery QQ Ice Cream, Chery Ant, BYD Dolphin, Ideal ONE, BYD Qin Pro EV, Changan Ben E-Star.
However, Zhao Shuo (pseudonym), a senior dealer of new energy vehicles in Shanxi, told "The Most Talking" that more and more consumers are beginning to choose models of more than 100,000 yuan. "Because we are BYD dealers ourselves, every time we meet, many representatives of 4S stores in third- and fourth-tier cities, the demand for certain models far exceeds the imagination of some big cities for third- and fourth-tier lines."
Zhao Shuo believes that unlike the consumption capacity of third- and fourth-tier cities in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Guangdong, some third- and fourth-tier cities in the north and even in the northwest, consumers buy new energy vehicles not only depending on the price.
"In recent years, due to the increasing number of people going to work in big cities, their spending power in the city where they work is quite strong, but they can't buy a car in the working city because they can't get a license, so they have to go back to their hometown to buy a car so that it is convenient to use at home." Many of them, if they are closer to the city of work, do not rule out that they buy a car from their hometown and then drive to the city where they work. ”
In addition, young people in third- and fourth-tier cities have gradually improved their consumption power with economic development, and they are not only pursuing large and low-priced new energy entry models, but even Tesla Model3 has a lot of ownership in many third- and fourth-tier cities.
In a recent report, CITIC Securities measured store efficiency by calculating the average monthly sales volume of a single store. The data shows that in 2021, Tesla's average sales in first-tier to third-tier cities can reach about 170 vehicles/month, and there is no loss of single-store efficiency due to channel sinking.
"I will go to Shijiazhuang today to mention Tesla", Li Yuan (pseudonym), who works and lives in Baoding, Hebei Province, told the most words, because she got her friend's lottery license plate qualification in Shijiazhuang, she plans to put the car under her friend's name and hang up the License Plate of Shijiazhuang, and then return to Baoding to use.
"I have to run Shijiazhuang at least three or four times a month, so it is more convenient to arrange it."
The money to buy a car, Li Yuan is actually not too difficult, because last year's unit benefits were good, issued a year-end bonus of 50,000, plus two years of savings and parents sponsored 100,000, just five years of work she has the first Tesla in her life.
"To buy a car or to buy a good one, so that it is convenient to use and also has a lot of face", in Li Yuan's eyes, although she is in a third- and fourth-tier city, it does not mean that the matter of buying a car should be OK, and it is necessary to buy the cheapest model. "We have to use at least 8-10 years for a car, and I have calculated the maintenance cost and car cost of the tram, which is far lower than that of the oil car." In this case, why should we go and buy a cheap car instead of buying a car that satisfies us? ”
In her view, whether it is new energy vehicles or clothing, shoes and hats, the current generation of consumers after 95 has obvious characteristics, they follow the personality, consumption itself will not limit themselves, they pursue the satisfaction of consumption.
"What's wrong with us in third- and fourth-tier cities, we will only buy what we like, and will not consume in a hurry because of the price", she is very disgusted with some concepts, thinking that cheap and very bad cars are sold to consumers in third- and fourth-tier cities, "This is actually an insult." ”
The reason that really impresses third- and fourth-tier consumers, especially young people, to buy new energy vehicles is not mainly the price, "the shape, color, function, etc. are the fundamental reasons why we buy a car, which is almost the same as the young people in first-tier cities." She said.
2
Piles
We did ask Li Yuan whether she considered the problem of charging, standing on the acre and three points of land in Beijing, the imaginary sinking market does not include the charging pile part.
But Li told us that in fact, in the local area, new energy vehicles are very convenient to charge. Baoding has Tesla's super charging station in 2020, and now Tesla's super charger can be directly installed in the community, "there is no problem with charging, and the cost of use will not be too high."
It was in July 2020 that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology began to organize new energy vehicles to go to the countryside.
The new energy vehicle to the countryside began in Qingdao, followed by 4 branch hubs, of which Taiyuan is a stop. Specific to preferential promotions, local governments at all levels issue support policies. As for the amount of profits and the geometry of promotion, more attention is paid to the "free play" of relevant car companies.
At that time, with the new energy vehicle going to the countryside, a list of key promotions was also deliberately listed. Including BAIC BJEV EC3, Euler R1\IQ Hongguang MiniEV, Chery EQ1, BYD Yuan, Dongfeng New Energy EX1, Besturn E01 and Nezha N01 and so on. The price of the above models is generally concentrated in the range of 50,000-160,000 yuan, the lowest price is the Hongguang miniEV of the first 29,800 subsidies, and the highest price is the BYD E3 of the subsidy of 164,800 yuan.
Holding such an event will certainly help new energy vehicle companies expand the market and promote the development of the rural new energy industry, of course, there are also factors that find ways to promote the development of new energy supporting facilities in third- and fourth-tier cities and even counties.
"The major manufacturers in that rural activity had greater preferential treatment, and the brands participating in this round of activities were all mainstream domestic new energy vehicle manufacturers." This means that the event model will further make concessions on the basis of the existing discounts, reduce the purchase threshold, and broaden the brand target customer base", Zhao Shuo told "The Most Talking", this activity has brought a certain sales increase, but more importantly, it has educated the new energy vehicle market in the third and fourth lines and even the county area.
"In the past, it was impossible to see 4S stores of new energy vehicles such as Euler and BYD in Xinzhou, and it would be good to have an agency company specializing in new energy vehicles, and in 2021, several major new energy vehicles have been deployed in the third- and fourth-tier markets in Shanxi, and Xinzhou now has 4S stores of core new energy vehicle brands such as BYD and Euler." Zhao Shuo said.
He believes that this is related to the increasing attention paid by these third- and fourth-tier cities to the construction of corresponding facilities for charging and distribution of new energy vehicles. "New energy vehicles also have to have energy support, if the construction of public charging piles and the like can not keep up, automobile companies in the sinking market below can not be promoted."
According to its introduction, in the past year or so, various prefecture-level cities in Shanxi, and even many counties and towns, have begun the construction of new energy vehicle charging stations. "This brings great hope to the popularity of new energy vehicles, at least in the third- and fourth-tier cities in Shanxi."
Taking Xinzhou City, Shanxi Province as an example, according to the corresponding data queried by the government website, it can be seen that the previous plan submitted to Shanxi Province is expected to achieve the task of building 855 charging piles in 2025, and nearly 60% has been completed.
In September 2021, the Xinzhou Municipal Government released an investment announcement on its official website showing that it is planned to install 50 charging piles in the parking lot of the Fanzhi County Investment Service Center below, with an investment of 50 million yuan.
"Now there are about 120,000 cars in Xinzhou, from the second half of 2020, the ownership of new energy vehicles has risen sharply, and by the end of December 2021, the proportion has reached almost 10-12%", Zhao Shuo believes that it is precisely because of the improvement of supporting facilities and the growth of the number that consumers in third- and fourth-tier cities like Xinzhou are willing to buy new energy vehicles.
Such a rapidly developing market is making more and more car brands pay attention to and gradually join it.
3
New forces in the sinking
The consumption level is good, and the charging pile support has gradually been in place, the process of consumer training is also nearing the end, and the market status quo in third- and fourth-tier cities has attracted the attention of new car-making forces from the second half of 2021.
The expansion of stores reflects the direction of the car company. According to the data, as of January 2022, the number of Tesla, Weilai, Ideal and Xiaopeng stores was 237, 377, 220 and 401 respectively, an increase of 38%, 69%, 261% and 120% respectively year-on-year. The total number of stores in the first-tier, new first-tier and second-tier cities of the four car companies has decreased to varying degrees, from 24.5%, 33.9% and 26.3% to 20.7%, 31.9% and 24.5% respectively; the proportion of stores in third- and fourth-tier cities has increased from 11.6% and 3.3% to 15.6% and 6.7% respectively.
For the new car-making forces that have been killed in first-tier cities, if this part of the market can really be done well, it is likely to be a turning point in performance development.
"Ideal, Xiaopeng, Weilai, including Ne Ya, Euler, have seen this trend, and are already in the layout", an auto industry person said, these cars have their own characteristics, before the competition in first-tier cities has been very fierce, "coupled with the traditional new energy vehicle strong BYD, Tesla and Wuling Hongguang MINI tiger eye, opening up new markets and positions is what they urgently want to do."
In his view, BYD's sales of nearly 600,000 vehicles a year, Wuling Hongguang's annual sales of nearly 460,000 vehicles, and Tesla's 320,000 vehicles, any of the top 3 are more than the sum of the top three new car-making forces. This means that it is difficult for new car-making forces to grab a share from the traditional market of these car-making strongmen, and Xiaopeng unexpectedly climbed the list of the top three new car-making forces last year, relying on the sinking market.
According to the data on Xiaopeng's official website, in addition to first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, as well as some wealthy provinces in the south, Xiaopeng now has more than 130 exhibition halls and 4S stores in third- and fourth-tier cities.
Zhao Shuo also feels that in the past two years, the new car-making forces have paid more and more attention to the sinking market, "My Shanxi, at present, Xiaopeng, Weilai, Ideal, and even Nezha, have begun to lay out, and some are said to plan to lay out outlets in all prefecture-level cities in Shanxi Province in 2023." ”
A wide range of shops will inevitably bring about an increase in scale. But for the new car-making forces, scale has always been a double-edged sword. On the one hand, the traditional automobile industry is essentially an economy of scale, with heavy assets, large scale, and then high efficiency. However, the new forces of car manufacturing, often not established for a long time, mostly use the asset-light model to start, the scale is not said to be able to go up. And after the scale, it needs a complete maintenance and maintenance system as a support, and the soundness of this whole set of textures is not a day's work.
Because of this, although new car-making forces have sprung up in recent years, they have behaved like a powerful motor in many places, as loud as a drum, for example in the stock market. They still haven't shaken the position of traditional car companies in new energy vehicles.
In 2021, the top two independent brand new energy vehicle sales list are BYD and Wuling Hongguang, which together account for 32% of the overall sales.