Wen | Li Haoxian
In the blink of an eye, the first quarter of 2022 has passed, and major new energy brands have also released good news. Before we officially begin the reading, we may wish to turn back the time to January 1, 2022.
This is the first day that the new energy vehicle subsidy policy officially came into effect, and the subsidy amount continued to be reduced by 30% on the basis of the previous one, and the actual reduction range ranged from 3900 yuan to 5400 yuan according to the different mileage size of the model.
Many new energy brands followed suit, and the three models of Xiaopeng Automobile rose between 4300 yuan and 5900 yuan. Tesla, depending on the model, rose between 10,000 and 21,000, of which the Model Y after-drive version was directly excluded from the subsidy list due to the national subsidy line that exceeded the 300,000 yuan price.
According to normal logic, the price increase of new cars will have an impact on sales, but the general view at the time was that this price increase was almost negligible for the current fanatical new car sales.
Well, guanzi is sold out, so has the subsidy decline brought any substantial impact?
Sold out again!?
Judging from the chart, new energy vehicles continue to usher in a sharp rise as expected, and the amplitude is once again magnified.
Several of these points deserve detailed.
First, as of the deadline, Tesla has only released sales information on a global scale, and has not yet released sales in China. However, Tesla delivered more than 310,048 vehicles in the first quarter, once again breaking the quarterly sales record, which is expected to continue to be broken as the German factory goes into production.
Second, GAC Aean, which has been secretly developing, eventually became a group of dark horses. The financial report shows that gac Aeon's capacity utilization rate has reached its limit, and in the first quarter, Eian has 50,000 orders to be delivered, which means that Aeon and Tesla are in a state of short supply, but the new factory of E'an has been put into use, and the dilemma is expected to be alleviated. In addition, GAC Aean's IPO plan is also in progress.
Third, the competition between "Wei Xiaoli" has evolved into "Xiao Li Wei". Weilai has lagged behind Xiaopeng and ideals in terms of growth rate and sales volume, which is obviously a dangerous signal, which means that Weilai has come to a bottleneck period or vacuum period, but with the delivery of ET7, it should be able to recover some sales disadvantages.
Fourth, the main affordable Nezha car and the main cost-effective zero-run car have also been recognized by many consumers, which proves that the new energy market is gradually diversified, the dumbbell effect is gradually reduced, and the consumption potential of the 100,000-200,000 range is being released.
First quarter: up and up
If you want to use a word to summarize the basic situation of the new energy market in the first quarter, then the word "up" is more appropriate, in addition to the increase in sales, there is also a rise in price.
In addition to the subsidy decline mentioned at the beginning of the article, the price increase, at the end of last year, new energy vehicle insurance also ushered in a wave of upward adjustment, although the range is far less exaggerated than the five thousand changes and ten thousand on the Internet, but the range is also about 10% to 20%, in the long run, it has always had an impact on consumers.
Of course, the current wave of price increases caused by power battery raw materials is the biggest "culprit", and almost all new energy brands have successively announced sharp price increases.
The price of BYD's models has been raised, with a range of 3,000-6,000 yuan;
The price of Nezha Automobile's models was raised, with a range of 3,000-5,000 yuan;
The price of Xiaopeng Automobile's models increased by 10,100-20,000 yuan;
Tesla Model Y afterdrive version of the price increased, an increase of 15,060 yuan;
The price of small ants and QQ ice cream under Chery New Energy was raised, with an increase of 3000-7100 yuan;
The price adjustment of all models of zero-run C11 under Zero-Run Automobile is 20,000-30,000 yuan;
The price of Euler good cat rose, rising by 6000-7000 yuan;
The price of WM Motors' models was raised, with an increase of 7,000-26,000 yuan.
This wave of battery price increases is more severe than the rise brought about by the subsidy decline at the beginning of the year, if coupled with the price increase in insurance, new energy vehicles have ushered in three waves of price increases in just one quarter, the so-called "small number is afraid of long-term calculations", shrewd consumers will become more and more cautious.
Taking Tesla Mode Y as an example, its landing price has increased by nearly 40,000 yuan compared with the lowest level last year, which is already a big increase for consumers in the consumption range, and it is very likely that they will give up buying a car because they exceed psychological expectations.
Comparison before and after price increases
In the face of this wave of price increases, it has also spawned some "scalper owners" who speculate on orders, and some prospective owners use the lower price orders on hand to earn the difference by transferring them to other interested buyers.
In the second-hand car market, some popular new energy vehicles are also difficult to find, and the price of car dealers is naturally rising. Our colleague Li Lishan's Aion Y sold and even made 10,000 yuan, which was unimaginable in the past.
Not affected by price increases
Some people asked, why has it risen so much, and the sales of new energy vehicles are still rising?
In the final analysis, the core reason is, of course, the inevitable result of strong demand. But dig deeper, there are actually many "hidden dangers" behind it.
Because the new cars delivered in the first quarter are basically orders placed in the period from the end of 21 to the beginning of 22, that is, the orders before the subsidy decline or the battery price increase, the first quarter is not affected by the superposition of the price increase tide, and the order after the battery price increase will basically be delivered in the second quarter.
In other words, the biggest impact on the superposition of price increases in one quarter is actually the second quarter or even the third quarter.
Therefore, we believe that in the second quarter, we should look at the sales trend of new energy vehicles with a cautious and optimistic attitude, and it seems unrealistic to expect a "collective climax" like the first quarter.
Of course, the market demand for new energy vehicles still has a lot of room to be full, so there is no reason why each company should not actively prepare for the battle.
In January, Musk had expected deliveries to grow by 50% in 2022. Based on last year's total sales of 936,000, Tesla will strive to deliver 1.4 million vehicles this year. So with the commissioning of Tesla's Berlin plant in Germany, this expectation will become a reality.
It is worth mentioning that Tesla's production in the Berlin factory will also liberate the production capacity of the Shanghai factory for the Chinese market, and it should be known that before that, the Shanghai factory also shouldered the supply of the European market, resulting in a serious backlog of orders in the Chinese market, which pulled down Tesla's sales in China.
The good drama is behind
Some insiders estimate that the real good drama will start from Q3, in this year's industry overall supply shortage, the epidemic situation in various places, the price increase of raw materials in the context, the sales volume of each family can better reflect the factory capacity and the company's supply chain control ability.
In addition, the price of new energy vehicles has risen collectively, and if a brand can continue to maintain high growth, it means that the brand has enough charm to let consumers continue to pay, and the product power is greater than the cost performance. There is no doubt that this is also a good opportunity to distinguish between good products and good brands.