Minutes of the expert meeting on the prospect of new energy vehicle sales and the outlook for the future market

Key takeaways:

1, sales: March sales of more than 45 (slightly beyond market expectations), penetration rate of more than 30% is the result of the suppression of fuel vehicles, not the norm.

2, the epidemic: The impact of March is mainly on the sales volume and transportation in the epidemic area, April mainly affects the parts and vehicles in the epidemic area, it is expected that the output may be reduced month-on-month, and the main engine factories affected by the epidemic and the supply chain are Tesla, Geely, Great Wall, Chery and other Yangtze River Delta car companies, but it is a short-term impact, and the annual domestic sales are expected to be more than 5.5 million.

3, price increases: price increases have an impact on orders, mainly low-end model orders are still weakened, but high-end models appear to buy up and not buy down, the current BYD and EAN orders do not reduce the growth, Nezha, zero run and other low-end electric vehicles after the price increase orders continue to grow, more than expected, after the oil price rise of electric vehicles highlighted.

4, car company goals: there is no downward adjustment, but the model adjustment will cause structural changes in automobile sales this year, and electric vehicle companies are still relatively optimistic.

5, at present, look at the Q2 electric vehicle production and sales data to see the impact of the epidemic, if you do not consider the epidemic is gradually growing, orders to better than expected, follow-up to see the delivery rhythm.

Specific contents:

First, the sales of the new energy market in January and February

Although the new energy subsidy policy declined at the beginning of the year and manufacturers generally increased prices, due to the relatively sufficient orders in the early stage of last year, the sales of new energy vehicles are still soaring, and the penetration rate has always remained high

January-February cumulative sales of 630,000 (retail data), +144% year-on-year, penetration rate of 18.4%; of which, January sales of 360,000, +123% year-on-year, penetration rate of 16.7%; February sales of 270,000, +178% year-on-year, penetration rate of 21.4%

Sub-technical route: for the pure electricity market, BYD and GAC A-an performed better, and the A-class market for new energy vehicles increased year-on-year; for the plug-in hybrid market, driven by BYD's dmi products, the A-class B-class market also rose year-on-year

Market Trends:

1) Penetrate from both ends to the middle mainstream market;

2) The proportion of private users continues to rise, from more than 10% to more than 20%;

3) The share of urban new energy with non-limited licenses and purchase restrictions has increased significantly, from 40% to more than 50%.

In addition to policy factors, with the gradual popularization of infrastructure and the continuous improvement of charging convenience, consumers' acceptance of new energy vehicles continues to increase. Judging from the data from January and February this year, both the total amount, product structure, user structure, and sales situation have shown a good trend

Second, the sales and forecast of the new energy market in March this year and the year

3.1-3.27 new energy sales have exceeded 37w, according to the average sales volume of the first four weeks, March is expected to reach 450,000-500,000, penetration rate of about 30%, a new high

There are two major influencing factors of new energy sales: price increases and the epidemic

1, the price increase: less than a few thousand, more than 2-3 million. On the one hand, the increase in raw material prices has made new energy vehicle companies face greater profit pressure (especially low-priced models below 10w), and the focus of production and sales will be shifted to higher-priced models in the future; on the other hand, the rise in oil prices has made consumers pay more attention to new energy, especially models with high cost performance (such as BYD DMI), further seizing the intermediate mainstream user market

2. Epidemic situation: For cities that have been greatly affected by the epidemic, the supply, production, vehicle shipment, customer flow and order delivery of manufacturers will be subject to certain restrictions

Differences between major manufacturers:

BYD: 1) Epidemic: The overall impact is small. Shenzhen Pingshan, Xi'an, Changsha factories are normal production, the epidemic is serious in the northeast accounted for a low proportion of ATD sales; although the epidemic led to a slowdown in the speed of vehicle logistics, but the dealer's inventory makes BYD can maintain a better level of delivery so far, is expected to reach more than 100,000 sales in March; 2) price increase: small range, dmi up 3,000, pure electricity up 6,000; compared with fuel vehicles, more cost-effective (car length, low cost of use, policy benefits in limited license cities), after the price increase was announced in March, Instead, it has promoted early purchases by wait-and-see customers; 3) Sales: With the stabilization of the epidemic, the improvement of chip supply and the increase in battery production capacity, BYD is expected to continue to soar, achieving or even exceeding the sales target of 1.5 million vehicles this year

Tesla: 1) Epidemic: Affected by the epidemic in Shanghai, last week's suspension of production for 2 days, this week's continuous suspension of production, March sales from the original expected 70,000 to today's early 60,000, down about 20%, M3, MY delivery time are further extended; 2) price increase: in March for a second price increase, the price increase range of 1-2 million, due to customer expectations so the order is relatively stable; 3) sales: With the easing of the epidemic in Shanghai, Tesla will continue to promote the ramping of production capacity and tap the potential of production capacity. It is expected that the annual target will continue to be released during the year

WEILAI: 1) Epidemic: The factory is located in Hefei, Anhui, the epidemic has not affected production, the main impact is the offline passenger flow into the store, new store new channel expansion, etc.; 2) price increase: previously announced that there will be no price increase; 3) sales: this year's sales are slightly lower than expected, ET7 listing did not bring a significant increase, and then the sales situation remains to be seen

Xiaopeng: 1) Epidemic: The factory is located in Zhaoqing, Guangdong, the epidemic has not affected production, and the parts reserves are sufficient; 2) The price increase: It has risen by 10,000-20,000 in March, and the communication with customers is frequent, the orders in hand are sufficient, and the follow-up rhythm is stable; 3) Sales volume: The problem is not big in the second quarter, and the follow-up may also launch marketing measures to ensure the continuous rise in volume

Ideal: 1) Epidemic: The factory is located in Changzhou, Jiangsu Province, last week stopped production for 2 days, the current normal production, offline passenger flow is affected 2) Price increase: March rose by 11,800, bringing advance orders, follow-up orders may have a slight decline, but the future rhythm is stable

Geely: 1) Epidemic: Affected by the epidemic in the Yangtze River Delta, the production is normal but the production capacity is insufficient, the supplier's production situation and parts transportation are restricted; there is inventory in the early stage, and the current delivery performance is still good; 2) The price increase: the geometry has risen for 3-7 days, and the short-term orders have fluctuated, but the long-term is relatively stable

Changan: 1) Epidemic: Factories and suppliers are in the central region, less affected by the epidemic, and the production rhythm is stable; 2) Price increases: no participation in price increases, only the suspension of some low-version models, sales are stable; 3) With the improvement of chip supply, this year will hit the million-level sales target

Great Wall: 1) Epidemic situation: Headquarters in Baoding, Hebei Province, is less affected by the epidemic, but the supply of parts is limited by transportation; 2) Price increase: In February, Euler black cats and white cats stopped taking orders, and good cats rose by 8,000-18,000, bringing fluctuations to orders in the short term, but it is expected to be stable and gradually improved in the long run (in the case of the general rise of similar models, its own product strength and user freshness and acceptance are blessed)

Wuling: 1) Epidemic situation: Factories and suppliers in Guangxi, less affected by the epidemic, the production rhythm is stable, but offline passenger flow, chip supply is limited; 2) its own characteristics: rich online customer acquisition channels, high online conversion rate, 2C strategy execution is high, with a certain degree of competitiveness under the epidemic; 3) price increase: Wuling rose 4,000, Baojun rose 8,000, short-term to bring fluctuations to orders, but with the promotion of marketing initiatives, it is expected to be stable in the long run

Chery: 1) epidemic: factory production is normal, but the supply of parts is limited by the epidemic in the Yangtze River Delta; 2) price increase: QQ rose for 3-7 days, currently in the digestion of the early order stage, the impact of the price increase has not yet appeared, need to be observed later (the situation is expected to be similar to Wuling)

GAC Aeon: 1) Epidemic: Guangzhou has not been affected by the epidemic, the parts reserves are sufficient, and the production structure is stable (the sales volume is larger in South China, and the current situation is relatively stable); 2) Price increase: Aian rose by 4,000-10,000, but has been actively communicating with customers, so the price increase is within expectations, the order does not fall but rises (similar to BYD); 3) Sales volume: the development is expected to be stable and orderly, and the annual target may be adjusted in a stable manner

Price increases will bring some fluctuations to mini cars and small cars in the short term (the price sensitivity of customers is higher), but for the middle mainstream or even high-end new energy vehicle customers, it is more of a mentality of buying up and not buying down. The demand side is generally stable and good

The impact of the epidemic is mainly reflected in the supply side, including the shortage of chip supply, the limited production of suppliers and OEMs, the slowdown in the transportation speed of parts and vehicles, and the extension of the delivery cycle. Manufacturers have been communicating with customers to stabilize customer expectations, and as the epidemic situation stabilizes, they will seize the backlog of orders in the early stage and continue to release volume this year

Third, the outlook for the future new energy market

From the dimension of new cars: the penetration rate is rising, repeatedly reaching new highs, the main customer base covers female first-time users, household purchase users, etc.; from the dimension of ownership: Of China's current 230 million motor vehicle ownership, new energy vehicles account for only 3%, and the remaining replacement users will be a larger source of customers

With the improvement of the convenience of use of new energy vehicles, the iteration of technological innovation, the improvement of the level of intelligence and the brand marketing of manufacturers, user precipitation, product reliability and stability are continuously verified, and the retention rate is improved, consumers' awareness and acceptance of new energy are constantly improving, and the future demand development potential is great

Fourth, sales planning and forecasting

For the whole year, the total sales volume is expected to remain unchanged, but the model structure will be adjusted: the increase in battery costs will have a greater impact on models below 100,000 (such as the 35,800 models of Changan Benben E-Star, the Great Wall Euler black cat and white cat discontinued production), and the low-cost models will shift to high-end models

Sales are expected: 5.2 million at the end of last year, with reference to the january and February of this year is estimated to be 5.5 million, according to the March price increase (consumers buy up or not buy down + oil prices rise) is estimated to exceed 550w or even may rush to 600w

In fact, the impact of price increases on consumers is smaller than expected, but it will bring some increments

1) For users who have long been concerned about new energy: know that the price increase of the car is because of the price increase of raw materials, and the subsequent impact of the war may also have a third and fourth wave of price increases, buy up not buy down

2) For users who have just begun to pay attention to new energy: the rise in oil prices + the high price of limited city licenses, the focus shifts from traditional fuel vehicles to new energy vehicles; the added value of high cost performance (purchase tax exemption, license issuance, unlimited travel) strengthens the expectation of new energy vehicles

Short-term sales: Industry orders in April and May will decline month-on-month but by limited margins

1) Micro and small car users: Although the price increase is not large, it accounts for a relatively large proportion due to the low price of the car. Therefore, there will be a slight decline in orders, and this fluctuation is within the expectations of manufacturers

2) Mainstream/high-end users: Think there is a follow-up price increase, so it will buy before the next wave of price increases, and the order will decline but the amplitude is limited

5. Classification of the general market of motor vehicles and the city level

The total market sales this month were 1.55-1.65 million, down about 200,000 from the same period last year; of which the sales of new energy vehicles are estimated to be 450,000-500,000, with a penetration rate of 30%

Reasons for loss of 200,000 sales:

Customer: insufficient consumer confidence, wait and see the increase of customers;

In terms of consumer preference: most of the losses are in fuel vehicles, and new energy is almost unaffected (sales of 45-50w are fully in line with the expectations at the beginning of the year). Given the lower purchase cost and use cost, consumers will prefer new energy models

1) Purchase cost: Taking BYD DMI as an example, the pricing of 100,000-200,000 yuan is compared with the same type of fuel vehicle, and the length, configuration, and driving experience have obvious advantages, plus some local policies are exempt from purchase tax and license plates, which is highly attractive to consumers;

2) Cost of use: pure electric models are fully powered, 1-2 cents per kilometer; and the pure electric mileage can reach 200km+, which can fully meet the daily commute;

At the city level, the sales volume of the first and second lines is stable, and the sales of the third and fifth lines are rising: the sales volume of the first and second lines is very high, and the sales of the third to fifth tier cities are also rising after the big sale of hongguang mini last year; the reach group has penetrated from the early innovation leader to the mainstream customer, and the user structure has become more and more mature

Sixth, the difference between future price increases and contingent price reductions

The third and fourth wave of price increases do not distinguish between manufacturers: the general situation in the industry, the price of vehicles changes with the price of raw materials. The general rhythm is that mainstream manufacturers lead the rise and other manufacturers follow

There will be no price reduction plans: mini cars and small cars will face order fluctuations earlier, and can only offset the negative impact of price increases and gain more users' favor by improving marketing capabilities and transmitting brand value (such as vehicle modifications, female user skins online, etc.).

Fuel vehicle price increase: can not be called price increase, more accurately said is to recover the promotion; last July began to promote a rebound, the average price rose by 1-30,000, to the end of the year (year-end impulse) and put the promotion back to the level of 300,000, but still higher than the previous price level; this year's chip continued to shortage, manufacturers of insufficient production capacity, although the current sales situation is more difficult, but the fuel vehicle or maintained the level after the recovery of the promotion, the current terminal price is relatively stable

(Discounts: few thousand, more than tens of thousands)

7. Sales volume

Q1 sales forecast: January-February sales and March to 450,000 volumes are the caliber of retail sales.

Q2 sales forecast: it may be the same as the first quarter or even grow, but it is currently affected, and it is possible to maintain the flat, up or down. Think there is no problem on the demand side. Expectations are gradually upwards, and like Tesla also has export plans.

Demand Forecast for the Second Half of the Year: Consumer bullishness has led to demand for the front, but demand for the second half of the year is not expected to be lower than expected. Under the influence of this year's subsidy decline and the rumored reduction of the purchase tax, considering the emergence of the big dividend in the back, consumers will still buy in the second half of the year, which will support the rise in sales throughout the year.

Orders of small car companies: Nezha's current orders are relatively stable, because the factory is in the Yangtze River Delta, mainly the supply is affected. Leading the way is similar logic. Like the Manufacturers in the Yangtze River Delta, the main supply chain problems, the order itself is not too much of a problem, is a stable state.

8. Delivery

The impact of the lead time on chargebacks: basically non-existent, the specific breakdown is as follows:

1) Tesla: Tesla's delivery cycle has been extended from more than ten weeks to more than twenty weeks, and its customer groups have many family purchases, exchanges and some trendy Kochi groups, which are expected to extend the delivery cycle, have little impact on use, and there is not much problem in communication;

2) BYD: BYD average is 2-3 months, the impact of the epidemic is not large, affected by transportation delayed by 1 to 2 weeks, for customers can be explained;

3) Xiaopeng: Xiaopeng has been less affected than the previous two.

The impact of inventory on delivery: North and South Volkswagen, General Motors, Liangtian, etc., their inventory levels are not high. The epidemic in Tianjin has had a great impact on Toyota, and it has been cut off. Since the epidemic last year, the inventory of vehicles such as GM has been declining, and there are also mismatch gaps (chip supply and other issues), although there is inventory but it is difficult to achieve delivery.

9. Penetration rate

Penetration rate status: The penetration rate reached 30% in March and 34% in the new week, mainly affected by the structure, and the specific split is as follows:

1) North-South Volkswagen lost 50,000 sales: Sales: The gap in sales of 200,000 market sales is also mainly in fuel vehicles, mainly reflected in the impact of the epidemic on North-South Volkswagen, and North Volkswagen basically completely stopped production (Changchun accounted for 20%-30% of its production capacity), and SAIC Volkswagen's production capacity is also very low;

2) Fuel vehicle offline stores closed loss of 50,000 sales: fuel manufacturers offline stores (Shanghai, Northeast, Hebei, Shandong and other places) closed stores reached 10%-20%, the north is the main sales place of fuel vehicles (less new energy), so the impact of more than 50,000 sales;

3) Chip supply tilt problem shadow sales: chip supply is in short supply, and the doctor will tilt chip resources to new energy, so the production capacity brought by fuel vehicle chips is also less.

l Penetration rate prediction: The gap caused by fuel vehicles is far greater than the gap in new energy. The later chip tilt may recover, but due to the impact of the previous two factors affected by the epidemic, the proportion of new energy in April and May may still be very high, and after the recovery of traditional fuel manufacturers in the later stage, it will still make up for it to reach the annual target. Therefore, it is predicted that the proportion of new energy is a trend of high proportion and then decline and then rise, and will not continue to rise.

X. Performance of fuel vehicle companies: The differentiation of fuel vehicle companies is very strong, FAW-Volkswagen is poor, and the best is GAC Toyota, the reasons are:

New models, prices, quality and other factors affected: Toyota has a lot of new models, covering high-end, mid-end, low-end, products have advantages, fair prices, configuration upgrades, but also relatively close to users, good profitability, but also promoted its product sales growth, and also did not affect the epidemic, so the overall is stable growth.

Chip distribution impact: Joint venture chips are distributed globally, like Volkswagen giving priority to the European market, the Chinese market is considered second, so China gets less. Toyota's overseas plants have stopped production and will give priority to Allocating To China to maintain production capacity.

11. The impact of the epidemic on Tesla

Capacity impact: 70,000 expected in March, 60,000 may be possible at present. April should be a slow climb of 100,000, but if the production continues to be stopped, it may be 30,000 or 40,000 units, or depends on the impact of the epidemic. Tesla mainly looks at production capacity, April impact is expected to be very large, but it is also a big month for exports, production capacity is insufficient, and ultimately depends on the allocation.

Tesla factory shutdown: Last week it was shut down for 2 days, and this week it was shut down for 4 days, which is a full shutdown. However, tomorrow and the day after tomorrow will be sealed again, and it is expected to resume production in 4.3, but it depends on the situation in Pudong and the two districts, which is dynamically changing

12. Changes in raw material prices and demand

Demand forecasting logic based on raw material prices:

1) The government controls the price of raw materials: the state is controlling raw materials, and the current supply is limited, but under the guidance of national policies (mining new mines), it is expected to gradually stabilize, which is conducive to the control of manufacturers' costs;

2) Platform cost decline offset effect: With the increase in sales of new energy vehicles, the cost of the platform declines, the cost of the car is apportioned to the car, the two parties offset, the cost of the car will not rise soon, in general, it can still maintain the cost performance

3) Policy decline and full competition: Policy may lead to demand front, but it may decline in early next year. However, after the policy has completely declined, the realization of new energy and the full competition of fuel vehicles, at this time, the battery technology, reliability, equipment improvement, convenience, and use of new energy are better than those of fuel vehicles. Therefore, in the end, it is still the competition of products, the demand for new energy vehicles will still be stable, and the demand will also reflect the characteristics of the product, and it is believed that the new energy in the later period is still relatively competitive.

Raw material prices and car price: If the raw materials do not rise, the car end price may also stabilize, manufacturers do more marketing measures, demand is better released, the current should be completely cost-driven end price increase. And now is also developing graphene batteries, sodium batteries, etc., I believe that manufacturers for the cost can be controlled as much as possible, manufacturers will also worry about the impact of orders, do not want to continue to rise.

13. Order and delivery cycle

Nezha, zero run: orders are relatively stable, but because the factory is in the Yangtze River Delta region, the supply has been affected by some; from the perspective of its own orders, it has not increased like BYD and Aean, but has remained stable; among them, zero run up 10,000-20,000, with a negative impact less than expected

GAC Aean increased prices, orders did not fall but increased; marketing initiatives (such as the just launched "90% off a year to buy back"), through the introduction of financial policies to attract consumers

Chery: Little Ant Ice Cream performed well, and it was the rank of the head of the mini car

In December last year, the domestic new energy batch sold 500,000 vehicles, and in December this year, it is expected to reach 700,000-800,000 without considering the rush factor

Delivery cycle: the head (Tesla, BYD) about three or four months, the new force about two months; Tesla on March 27, the Berlin factory began to put into operation, the follow-up overseas part of the gap will be met by the overseas factory

14. Sales of passenger cars this year

Expected a slight increase of about 5% at the beginning of the year, and now slightly reduced to 2% due to the impact of the epidemic

Total market judgment: On the one hand, revenue expectations have declined, but the current impact of orders is not significant; on the other hand, because the impact of revenue expectations has continued since the epidemic, there is still a part of the demand to be met in last year's lack of cores, so the total market is a flat and slightly increased estimate on the basis of last year

Hybrid relative to pure electricity ratio is higher: plug-in hybrid many new products (BYD DMI, Japanese strong hybrid, etc.) pushed up the entire plug-in hybrid market, coupled with the current year-on-year growth rate of hybrid is also higher than the year-on-year growth rate of pure electricity, it is expected that the hybrid ratio will be higher

The high-end is stronger than the low-end risk resistance: on the one hand, the income level of high-end customers is relatively stable, and the sensitivity to price increases is low, on the other hand, many high-end new products launched this year will further expand the high-end market

Fifteen, marketing play

The interior modification of the mini car is very attractive; a high proportion of customers are female users, and the preference for appearance modification and personalized display is very high, and Wuling has done a good job in this regard.

According to the city level: 3-5 tier cities are more to do channel expansion and passenger flow conversion, first- and second-tier cities are more to do product upgrades (Wuling, Hongguang mini, Baojun, etc.); mini cars, small cars account for a higher proportion of 3-5 lines

16. Miscellaneous

Car companies will ensure more sales targets than profits: whether it is traditional manufacturers or new manufacturers, they are trying to maintain sales targets or even raise sales targets, even if affected by the epidemic, the annual targets of each manufacturer have not changed particularly much

This year's core shortage will not be particularly serious: last year was affected by the epidemic in Malaysia and Southeast Asia, and this year's epidemic has slowed down and the policy has been relaxed, and the chip supply has basically returned to normal in a sustained and stable manner

Bosch: Will chip supply be tilted towards new energy vehicles?

Suppliers are more inclined to develop chips that supply new energy models, but fuel vehicles will also be enough for a long time. In the case of chip shortage, there may be a partial tilt, but after the supply stabilizes in the later stage, it is mainly adjusted according to customer demand.