Text/Zhou Xiongfei
The impact of rising oil prices continues.
On Friday, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that the domestic gasoline and diesel prices (standard products, the same below) will increase by 750 yuan and 720 yuan per ton respectively from 24:00 on the same day. After the adjustment, taking Beijing as an example, No. 92 gasoline will rise to 8.65 yuan per liter, and No. 95 gasoline will rise to 9.21 yuan per liter.
Counting this price adjustment, this is already the sixth increase in domestic oil prices this year. After 6 price increases, taking No. 95 gasoline as an example, the price has risen from 7.8 yuan per liter to the current 9.21 yuan per liter. In the face of this price increase, many fuel vehicle owners have complained, and even said that "they can no longer afford to drive a fuel car" and "after going to work, they can only ride a bicycle."
Perhaps seeing this wave of consumers' "escape" from fuel vehicles, some bigwigs of new energy vehicle companies have also taken advantage of the situation to go down amway new energy vehicles, which is represented by Shen Hui, the founder of WM Motors.
Earlier this month, Shen Hui first described the recent rise in international oil prices in his personal Weibo, and then said that "the electricity cost consumed by smart electric vehicles can save about 80,000 yuan in 5 years compared with the fuel cost of oil vehicles, which is almost equal to 4 LV or Hermès bags." ”
Shen Hui on the rise in oil prices Amway new energy vehicles, the source of the picture from his personal Weibo
The implication is that driving new energy vehicles will definitely save money than driving fuel vehicles, especially in the current stage of rising oil prices. Because of this, in his view, buying new energy vehicles is the best choice, "What are you still thinking about?" Come and power up! ”
In the face of such Amway, perhaps some consumers have seen the advantages of driving new energy vehicles, and even the line travel has also seen some netizens who are ready to buy a car on the Internet, saying that "the oil price is too high, or buying an electric car to save money" and "electric vehicles are really fragrant".
However, just two days after Shenhui Amway New Energy Vehicle, WM Motors increased its price. According to the official, due to the continuous sharp rise in raw material prices and the tight supply of suppliers, it will adjust the price of its models on sale, ranging from 7,000 yuan to 26,000 yuan.
Price increases like this, Weima is not alone.
At the same time as the domestic oil price rises, Tesla took the lead in raising the "big banner" of price increases, adjusting the price of its Model 3 and Model Y, and the overall price increase was 28,000-30,000 yuan; Xiaopeng, BYD and Euler Automobile followed closely behind, and they raised the price of their models on sale.
Even the ideal car, which did not take the lead in price increases, released its own price increase announcement today after CEO Li wanted to publish the comment that "car companies that have not yet raised prices are just negotiating prices with battery factories, and if they talk about it, they will increase prices".
On the one hand, the domestic oil prices are frequently raised, on the other hand, the price of mainstream new energy models in China has risen, under the pressure of these two forces, many fuel vehicle owners and consumers who are ready to buy cars are caught in the dilemma of buying fuel vehicles or buying new energy vehicles. When this embarrassing situation will end has become the focus of many consumers' attention.
1, the price of oil has risen, can not afford to drive fuel vehicles
"I can't afford to drive anymore."
When asked how domestic oil prices rose, Xia Qing said this about wired travel. According to Xia Qing, now only one gas truck in the family is Volkswagen Langyi, which is generally used as a means of transportation for commuting to work, picking up children to school and weekend travel.
In the previous three years, Xia Qing has always felt that the cost of driving is not too high, with an average of 4 refueling times a month, and the fuel cost is basically maintained at about 800 yuan. But since the beginning of this year, not only the gradual rise in domestic oil prices, but also the gas has begun to queue, she feels the pressure.
Gas stations lined up to refuel, courtesy of the interviewee
In January this year, the domestic refined oil prices have been adjusted in three rounds: on the 1st of the month, the domestic gasoline and diesel prices increased by 140 yuan and 135 yuan per ton respectively; on the 17th and 29th, the domestic gasoline and diesel prices increased by 345 yuan, 310 yuan, 330 yuan and 300 yuan per ton respectively.
By February, the rise in domestic oil prices continued. On the 17th of last month, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice saying that since 24:00 on the same day, domestic gasoline has been raised by 210 yuan per ton and diesel by 200 yuan per ton. Equivalent to calculations, No. 92 gasoline rose by 0.16 yuan per liter, No. 95 gasoline rose by 0.17 yuan per liter, and No. 0 diesel rose by 0.17 yuan per liter.
Compared with the three price increases in January, only one price increase was made in the middle of the month in February, so at that time, the rise in oil prices should have ended.
But it turns out that such price increases continue this month.
On the 3rd of this month, the National Development and Reform Commission released a message that since 24:00 on the same day, the domestic gasoline price has been raised by 260 yuan / ton, and the price of diesel has been raised by 255 yuan / ton. Equivalent to calculations, the price of No. 92 gasoline was raised by 0.2 yuan / liter, and the price of No. 95 gasoline and No. 0 diesel was raised by 0.22 yuan / liter.
After the price adjustment is completed, the retail price of gasoline oil in most parts of the country will be 7.8-8 yuan / liter, and diesel will remain in the same range price. If you take a private car with a fuel tank capacity of 50L as an example, consumers will spend about 10 yuan more to fill a tank of No. 92 gasoline than before.
Because the price of oil per liter has reached about 8 yuan, it is also jokingly called "oil price into the 8 yuan era" in the industry. However, it did not take long for the "9 yuan era" to arrive.
On Friday, the National Development and Reform Commission released information that since 24:00 on the same day, domestic gasoline and diesel prices have increased by 750 yuan and 720 yuan per ton respectively. In this calculation, the equivalent of No. 92 gasoline, No. 95 gasoline and No. 0 diesel per liter were raised by 0.59 yuan, 0.62 yuan and 0.61 yuan respectively.
After the price adjustment, the price of No. 92 gasoline per liter in most provinces and cities in the country will be about 8.66 yuan, while the price of No. 95 gasoline per liter will remain at about 9.20 yuan. According to the estimation of private cars with a fuel tank capacity of 50L, filling a tank of No. 92 gasoline will increase by about 30 yuan more than in February.
If you count from January 1 this year, as of the price adjustment on the 17th of this month, domestic oil prices have experienced "6 consecutive increases", and consumers have complained about it for a while.
Domestic oil prices "6 consecutive rises" (Beijing) trend, data from public information, connected travel mapping
"When the price increased at the beginning of this year, the oil price was still around 7 yuan / liter, which was acceptable." But with the further rise in oil prices, oil prices came to 9 yuan / liter, don't look at the unit price only rose by 2 yuan, but if you calculate from the frequency of 4 refueling times a month, it is a big expense. Xia Qing said to the connection travel.
In order to better illustrate, Xia Qing calculated the account to the connection travel. According to her, according to the daily driving use, basically 3-4 times a month to add oil, will choose No. 95 gasoline, each time to fill up the oil will cost more than 370 yuan, equivalent to the monthly cost of refueling will be about 1100-1500 yuan.
But after the end of the price adjustment on the 17th of this month, when Xia Qing went to refuel again, the cost of filling up the oil was close to about 450 yuan, an increase of 88 yuan compared with the previous single refueling, according to the frequency of monthly refueling, the cost of her monthly refueling would cost about 1350-1800 yuan, which was 250-300 yuan more than the previous month.
"The increase in fuel costs does not seem to be much, but for a family of three like us whose monthly salary is only 20,000 yuan and who still have a child, it is a large financial burden." Xia Qing said, "I don't know if such a price increase will continue after that, and before that, we must consider how to solve the travel problem." ”
Car owners like Xia Qing are actually not alone, since the domestic oil prices have risen frequently, the line travel on the Internet can see many consumers have made similar comments, "really can't afford to drive, after nothing to take the bus and subway" "After going to the gas station, I really don't have the confidence to say 'fill up the 95th'."
The reality of rising oil prices not only plagues car owners who already have cars, but also makes some consumers who are ready to buy cars troubled.
Liu Chang is such a consumer. According to him, he was originally ready to buy a fuel car as a means of transportation at the beginning of this year, but seeing the continuous rise in domestic oil prices, Liu Chang, who had just worked for two years, gradually dispelled the idea of buying a fuel car.
"At the beginning of the year, I actually looked at the Audi A3, and the price was more in line with my own positioning, but after 3 consecutive months of oil price increases, oil prices have exceeded 9 yuan, and the trend of price increases continues, in the face of such a reality, I began to hesitate to buy fuel vehicles, sometimes I can't sleep at night." Liu Chang said.
It is not without reason to be so sad. According to Liu Chang, he usually needs to transfer from subway to bus to work, which takes more than 4 hours, if you buy a car, although it will be stuck in traffic, at least it will not be crowded in the car, and it will be more comfortable.
Therefore, while thinking about whether to buy a fuel vehicle, Liu Chang is also considering that he can buy a new energy vehicle as a means of transportation. There is the same idea, there is Xia Qing, according to her introduction is also ready to buy a cheaper new energy vehicle as a means of transportation, "after all, there is a car, pick up and drop off children is also convenient and safer." ”
However, when Xia Qing and Liu Chang looked at new energy vehicles, they also found that the situation was not optimistic.
2, want to buy new energy vehicles, it is not easy
The rise in oil prices has promoted the sales of new energy vehicles to a certain extent.
According to data from the Federation of Passenger Vehicles, the retail sales of new energy passenger cars in China in February this year were 272,000 units, an increase of 180.5% year-on-year, and the penetration rate was 21.8%, an increase of 13 percentage points over the same period last year. A sales director of a new energy vehicle company told Lianlian Travel that with the continuous rise in domestic oil prices recently, the sales volume of new energy vehicles has increased significantly, and the growth rate has reached more than 30%.
In addition to the Chinese market, the global new energy vehicle market has also been further matured.
According to a report released by Electronek, Tesla's orders in several parts of the United States have surged recently due to soaring gasoline prices, with orders in some areas increasing by 100%.
It is undeniable that with the increase in global oil prices, it has also changed the views of many consumers on new energy vehicles, and even the "balance" of car purchase choices has been tilted to new energy vehicles, including Xia Qing and Liu Chang mentioned above.
According to the two of them, they have recently been looking at new energy models of various brands, including Tesla, Weilai, Xiaopeng, JiKr and other brands. Among them, Xia Qing took a fancy to Tesla's Model Y, while Liu Chang wanted to buy Xiaopeng's P5 model.
Just when they wanted to make up their minds to buy a car, they heard bad news.
According to Liu Chang, when he was ready to make a decision, he asked when the sales could pick up the car, and the answer was "Due to the tight supply, if the car is ordered now, the pick-up cycle may exceed 3 months." For the same question, Xia Qing's answer took about 16 weeks (4 months).
In this pick-up cycle, the line travel to Xiaopeng Automobile for verification, the other party said that the specific pick-up time should be based on the official website display. According to the Xiaopeng official website booking Xiaopeng P5 page, "after signing the contract, it is expected to be delivered in 8-9 weeks, and the cycle of a small number of models is slightly longer."
"When I heard this reply, I didn't expect it, and at the same time I couldn't accept it, after all, the waiting time was too long to solve our family's travel problem in a short period of time, so I could only think about it again." Xia Qing said so.
Due to the long time to pick up the car, Liu Chang was also in hesitation. He said that he has been looking at the Xiaopeng P5 car for a long time and is very satisfied with all aspects, but he really did not expect to wait so long to pick up the car.
However, just as they hesitated, an even bigger obstacle appeared before them.
On Friday, Tesla's official website in China showed that the price of the domestic version of the Model Y rear-wheel drive version was increased to 316900 yuan, an increase of 15060 yuan compared with the previous 301840 yuan.
Tesla Model Y price details, screenshot Tesla official website
This is Tesla's third price increase this month. As early as the 10th of this month, Tesla Model 3 high-performance version, Model Y long-lasting and high-performance version all increased by 10,000 yuan; five days later, Tesla China once again announced that the Model 3 high-performance version and Model Y long-endurance and high-performance version will increase prices.
Among them, the price of the Model 3 high-performance version was adjusted to 367,900 yuan, up 18,000 yuan; the price of the Model Y long-endurance and high-performance version was 375,900 yuan and 417,900 yuan, up 18,000 yuan and 20,000 yuan respectively.
This means that in nearly a week, the price of Tesla's Model 3 model has increased by 28,000 yuan, and the price of the Model Y model has also increased by 28,000-30,000 yuan.
As everyone knows, after Tesla started, many new energy vehicle companies have followed suit and begun to increase prices.
Just one day after Tesla's third price increase this month, Xiaopeng, Weima and Zero Run have announced their own price increase plans. Xiaopeng said that the price of the models on sale will be adjusted, and the price increase before the subsidy will range from 10,100-20,000 yuan, and the price adjustment will take effect from 00:00 on March 21, before which users who pay deposits through official channels such as xiaopeng Motors App and official website are not affected by this price adjustment.
WM and Zero Run, the price adjustment of its models on sale also involves more than 10,000 yuan. The price increase of the former after comprehensive subsidies ranged from 7,000 to 26,000 yuan, which took effect at 00:00 on the 28th of this month; the price increase of the C11 model of the latter also reached 20,000-30,000 yuan.
After that, Euler, Nezha, GAC Aean and Geometric Automobile New Energy Brands all raised the price of their models, of which the price of Euler and Geometry rose by 6000-7000 yuan and 3000-7000 yuan respectively, and GAC Eian reached 4000-10000 yuan.
In this wave of new energy vehicle price increases, in addition to the new car manufacturers, some established car companies are also involved.
On the 15th of this month, BYD Automobile officially issued the "Explanation on model price adjustment", according to the instructions, BYD Automobile will adjust the official guidance price of new energy models related to Dynasty Network and Ocean Network, ranging from 3000-6000 yuan, the price adjustment will take effect from 00:00 on March 16, and customers who have paid a deposit before signing a deposit will not be affected by this price adjustment.
Two days later, Chery New Energy also issued an announcement that it would adjust the official guidance price of related new energy models such as small ants, ranging from 3,000-6,000 yuan, effective from 00:00 on March 17, and customers who had signed a deposit before that were not affected by the price adjustment.
Chery New Energy price increase announcement, figure source Chery New Energy official micro
According to the incomplete statistics of wired travel, as of press time, as of press time, there have been 10 new energy vehicle companies and brands such as Tesla, Xiaopeng and Zero Run that have increased the price of their models. In the industry's view, this wave of price increases is a large-scale collective price increase in the industry, so that the price increase of many car companies has been concerned by many people in the industry.
Although such price increases have allowed car companies to gain some attention, they have also made many consumers stop before the next step.
According to Liu Chang, some of the money saved from working in Shanghai for two years, plus the family's gift, is just enough to buy a Xiaopeng P5, but with the occurrence of this wave of price increases, the original sufficient funds have fallen into the embarrassment of not being enough. For Xia Qing, under the dual pressure of price increase and waiting, he also said that he still needed to consider it.
Now, on the one hand, there are fuel vehicles that can be bought and cannot be driven, and on the other hand, new energy vehicles that cannot be driven and cannot be bought, under the restriction of these two major factors, consumers represented by Xia Qing and Liu Chang have to fall into the dilemma of buying a car.
3. How long will the price increase last?
To answer this question, we must first look at why the rise in oil prices and the price increase in new energy vehicles occur.
Let's start with the rise in oil prices. Now the outside world blames the impact of the situation between Russia and Ukraine more on the occurrence of this phenomenon, but if the timeline is extended, in January, when the relations between Russia and Ukraine have not deteriorated, the rise in domestic oil prices has begun, so the reason is still discussed in the industry and the outside world.
In the view of Zhang Junyi, managing partner of Oliver Wilver Consulting, there are three main reasons for the rise in domestic oil prices, on the one hand, saudi arabia and Russia only plan to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day, resulting in tight supply. At the same time, due to the carbon peak and insufficient preparation for carbon neutrality targets, the epidemic has not yet ended, and the production capacity in many countries has not yet fully recovered, coupled with the supply chain crisis and the promotion of US capital, the price of gasoline and natural gas in Europe has also soared. In the country, domestic demand has increased, and the demand for energy such as gasoline is gradually increasing, coupled with the shortage of global crude oil supply, which further amplifies this shortage effect and further boosts the rise in domestic oil prices.
Because of this, the impact of this imbalance between supply and demand is long-term, and if oil prices are to fall, the problems on both the supply and demand sides must be solved at the same time. "Therefore, oil prices are likely to continue to rise for some time to come." Zhang Junyi told Wired Travel.
Future Auto Daily also quoted economist Song Qinghui as saying that if the Russo-Ukrainian war ends in the short term, then the sanctions imposed by Western countries on Russia will also be gradually withdrawn. However, considering that the supply and demand level of the market is still tight, it is expected that oil prices will not fall significantly in the short term.
Compared with the debate on the reasons for the rise in oil prices, the industry's views on the reasons for the price increases of new energy vehicles are very unified, after all, many car companies have taken the initiative to answer.
By looking at the statements of Xiaopeng, Weima, Euler, BYD, Chery and other car companies on price increases, Wired Travel attributed the reason for the price increase to "due to the continuous sharp rise in the price of upstream raw materials"; although Tesla did not specify the reason, its CEO Elon Musk had made it clear that Tesla was facing huge cost pressure at the supply chain end, so it had to increase the price of the vehicle.
"The general price increase of smart electric vehicles is caused by the entire supply chain such as chips and special raw materials due to the serious impact of the epidemic in various countries on normal production and international logistics, resulting in a temporary shortage of supply and demand for the whole vehicle; there is also a surge in global power battery production that causes the price of various non-ferrous metals and other raw materials required to rise, and finally transformed into the price of the whole vehicle." Automotive industry analyst Zhong Shi explained to wired travel.
Since the beginning of this year, the price of lithium carbonate raw materials has shown a trend of "one price a day", and the line travel has been in the "lithium raw material price increase, "small workshop" eye heat, "regular army" anxious, when will the power battery recycling war end? The reasons behind this phenomenon are elaborated in the article.
In mid-January this year, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 336,000 yuan / ton, and the data of the commodity data service provider business company of The connection travel showed that the price of this raw material has recently risen to 470,000 yuan / ton, approaching the 500,000 yuan / ton mark.
The fluctuation of the price of raw materials for power batteries is currently perceived not only by new energy vehicle companies, but also by power battery manufacturers.
According to the first financial quoted by a new energy vehicle company relevant person in charge revealed that the battery cost rose more severely, since the second half of last year, the price of the Ningde era power battery has risen twice, according to the battery cost of a new energy vehicle, the last increase of 10,000 yuan, not long ago rose by 10,000 yuan.
In response to this news, The connection travel asked the Ningde era for verification, got a positive answer, and said that "due to the sharp increase in the price of upstream raw materials, the company dynamically adjusted the price of some battery products accordingly." ”
Perhaps based on the above information, in Li Xiang's view, the price increase of the new energy automobile industry will continue after that.
He said in his Weibo, "At present, brands that have contracted with battery manufacturers to determine the price increase in the second quarter have basically announced price increases immediately." If there is no price increase, most of them have not yet been negotiated, and the price will generally increase immediately after waiting for the negotiation. ”
Li wanted to comment on the price increase, screenshot from his personal Weibo
As soon as the words fell, Ideal Auto issued an announcement of its price increase today. The announcement said that from April 1, 2022, Ideal Auto will adjust the selling price of Ideal ONE, and the national unified retail price will be raised from the current 338,000 yuan to 349,800 yuan.
Zhang Junyi also believes that with the further impact of the imbalance between supply and demand caused by the rising price of chips and batteries, the situation in Russia and Ukraine, and other factors, the state is also ready to control the price of raw materials such as batteries, and the price increase of new energy vehicles may slow down in the future, but this upward trend will continue after that, and there may be more car companies to join.
In the industry's view, because the impact of the double rise in oil prices and new energy vehicle prices will not end in the short term, the dilemma that hangs over consumers represented by Xia Qing and Liu Chang will continue to exist in the future for a period of time.
Based on this situation, consumers need to make more calm judgments and decisions. For traditional car companies and new energy vehicle companies, it is also necessary to protect the rights and interests of consumers while making risk avoidance measures such as price increases.
After all, difficult periods and stages will eventually end, but car companies will always need the trust and support of consumers.
(At the request of the interviewees, Xia Qing and Liu Chang are pseudonyms.) ）