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Jiwei network news, since the beginning of this year, the mainland new energy automobile industry continued last year's boom trend, according to the data of the China Automobile Association, the cumulative sales of new energy passenger cars in January and February were 740,000, an increase of 155.8%; new energy commercial vehicles also increased by 125% year-on-year, reaching 20,000 units. Driven by the favorable downstream market, the performance of many upstream lithium companies soared in January and February.
However, downstream OEMs are under pressure, bydir, Weilai, Xiaopeng, Ideal, Tesla and other mainstream new energy vehicle brands have carried out different ranges of price increases, of which Tesla is an 8-day 3-day crazy move. Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Association, said that the continuous price increase of upstream materials is bound to affect the profitability of downstream car companies, and it is expected that the days of new energy vehicle companies will be more difficult this year.
Lithium industry chain enterprises in January and February performance explosion
Recently is the listed companies released 2021 annual results of the concentration period, the enterprises last year performance forecast and annual reports have been released, and to the author's surprise, some lithium industry chain enterprises also simultaneously released 1-2 months, or even 1 quarter of the performance forecast, inventory found that a number of lithium industry chain enterprises this year the performance soared year-on-year.
Industry knows that in 2021, the mainland's new energy automobile industry will develop beyond expectations, and the annual sales of new energy passenger cars will reach 3.31 million, an increase of 183% year-on-year. Since entering 2022, although the subsidy for new energy car purchase has declined, the new energy automobile industry has continued its previous good momentum and continued to maintain a high-speed growth trend. According to the China Automobile Association, the cumulative sales of new energy passenger vehicles in mainland China from January to February this year increased by 740,000 units, an increase of 155.8% year-on-year; new energy commercial vehicles also increased by 125% year-on-year to 20,000 units. The industry predicts that the sales of new energy vehicles this year are expected to reach more than 5.5 million units, and the annual penetration rate of new vehicles is expected to exceed 20%.
Under the continuous prosperity of the industry, the upstream lithium battery material industry chain enterprises have benefited from rapid growth, Tianci Materials, Polyfluoride, Shanshan Shares, Ganfeng Lithium, Tianqi Lithium, Yongxing Materials, Dangsheng Technology, Zhenhua New Materials, Shi Dashenghua and many other industrial chain enterprises in 2021 performance exceeded expectations, some enterprises not only turned losses into profits, net profit also hit a record high. Among them, the net profit of polyfluoride in 2021 increased by nearly 25 times year-on-year, and the shares of Shanshan increased by more than 23 times year-on-year.
Since entering 2022, these enterprises have continued to maintain the momentum of development of the boom, of which the profit of polyfluoride in the first quarter increased by more than 6 times year-on-year; the net profit of Yongxing Materials in January and February increased by nearly 7 times year-on-year; Tianci Materials, Shanshan Shares, Ganfeng Lithium, Tianqi Lithium and other enterprises, the net profit in 1-2 months also increased by 3-5 times year-on-year; Although the growth rate of Dangsheng Technology, Zhenhua New Materials, Shi Dashenghua and other enterprises was "slower", the net profit also had a year-on-year growth rate of 1-2 times.
Lithium battery material concept stocks have soared since last year and have become a beautiful landscape for A shares.
The performance of a number of lithium industry chain enterprises has soared (source: micro-network finishing)
Regarding the reasons for the performance exceeding expectations, Polyfluoride said that it mainly benefited from the continuous good impact of the development trend of the new energy industry, and the core product of the company's new material business segment, lithium hexafluorophosphate, was in strong demand, and with the gradual production of new production capacity, profitability increased significantly. Some insiders said that at present, raw materials such as lithium carbonate and lithium hexafluorophosphate are in a state of shortage.
Electrolyte supplier Tianci Materials also said that benefiting from the industry boom, the company's lithium-ion battery material electrolyte product sales and prices have increased significantly year-on-year, and the current production and sales of major products are booming; coupled with the smooth climb of new production capacity, the self-production rate of major raw materials has steadily increased, and good operating performance has been achieved.
Anode materials are also in short supply, Shanshan shares said that the downstream market demand for the anode materials business continues to be strong, and the company's full production and full sales are still unable to meet the market demand; at the same time, its all categories of anode products have raised prices, which has also brought higher profit margins. In order to meet the needs of the market, Shanshan shares have accelerated the expansion plan and are expected to be put into operation next year.
Ganfeng Lithium, a supplier of lithium carbonate, said that driven by strong downstream demand, its lithium product production and sales and selling prices have increased significantly, and there is currently a production capacity of 43,000 tons / year of lithium carbonate and 81,000 tons of lithium hydroxide / year; at the same time, it is actively expanding production, of which the Cauchari-Olaroz salt lake project in Argentina is expected to be put into operation in the second half of the year, and the fourth phase of the Mahon plant project will also be put into operation in July this year to meet the strong market demand.
Other enterprises have also benefited from the continuous prosperity of the new energy industry, and the increase in product prices has brought considerable profits.
Downstream enterprises are under extreme pressure to increase prices
Upstream lithium industry chain enterprises benefit from the soaring performance, but let the downstream main engine factories cry bitter. According to incomplete statistics, more than 20 car brands have raised the price of their models through different ways.
On March 15, BYD once again adjusted the price of its dynasty network and ocean network related new energy vehicle models ranging from 3,000 yuan to 6,000 yuan; Xiaopeng rose by 10,000 to 20,000 yuan; Nezha ranged from 3,000 yuan to 5,000 yuan; Extreme Krypton 001 increased by 8,000 yuan; Weilai raised 4,860 yuan to 5,400 yuan; Tesla raised prices by more than 21,000 yuan in three rounds in 8 days; Weima raised 7,000 yuan to 26,000 yuan; and zero-run T03 also raised 9,100 yuan.
More importantly, due to the tight supply of power batteries, the delivery cycle of various car companies and brands is still lengthening, among which many models under many brands such as Zero Run, Tesla, Weilai, Ideal, and Qingjie have no existing cars, and the delivery cycle of some models has been extended to more than 25 weeks.
It should be pointed out that BYD, one of the leading enterprises in local new energy vehicles, was about 150,000 undelivered orders in hand a few years ago, and has now been greatly backlogged to 400,000 vehicles, and some prospective car owners said, "I originally wanted to buy BYD, but the result was not only a price increase, but also several months of delivery; I wanted to change other brands, and it turned out that other car companies were in a similar situation." "It is understood that many models have also cancelled cash offers at present.
In fact, this is the second round of centralized price increases of various automobile brands in the near future, from the end of last year to January this year, the car companies are still hidden when talking about the reasons for the first round of price increases, with the "car purchase subsidy decline" as the reason for the price adjustment, but the author has made an analysis in the article "[Core Intelligent Driving] Lithium Material Price Rises To Push Up the Cost of Cars, New Energy Vehicles Passively Enter the Price Increase Period", and the price increase of upstream raw materials is the main reason for the increase in the price of automobiles.
This round of price adjustment, including BYD, Nezha, Xiaopeng and other car companies, directly said: affected by the rise in the price of upstream raw materials and the tight supply of supply chain and other factors.
It is understood that the current battery-grade lithium carbonate price has risen to a high of 520,000 yuan / ton, up more than 73% from January 1 this year; other raw materials are also in a state of sharp price increase, industry insiders said, "the manufacturer's quotation is basically a price a day, and lithium salt prices have risen by tens of thousands of dollars a week has become the norm, if I did not take the goods in the morning, then I may not be able to get the goods at this price in the afternoon." ”
The above-mentioned people further analyzed that the price increase of the power battery industry chain this year has a significant impact on the cost of car companies, which has led to an increase of 10%-20% in the cost of vehicle manufacturing, and the increase in bicycles is about 10,000 yuan. Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Association, believes that "the rise in raw material prices has indeed had a greater impact on the new energy vehicle market, which is bound to affect the profitability of downstream car companies, and it is expected that the days of new energy vehicle companies will be more difficult this year." ”
Not only that, the upstream lithium price is still maintaining an upward trend, power battery business people said that the current lithium quotation has been close to the limit of pressure, especially lithium iron phosphate, "the market resistance is very large, the procurement cost of the long order is lower, after the end of the long order, we must consider whether to accept the high price of the market, if you do not accept the high price of the list will face production reduction, production stoppage." ”
However, "the price increase of new energy vehicles is not an isolated event, and traditional fuel vehicles have also increased prices since last year." Hu Yueqiang, director of industrial and automobile sales at Xinwang Micro, said that in addition, the recent sharp rise in oil prices has led to an increase in the cost of using cars, which has also prompted potential car buyers to prefer to buy new energy vehicles.
The above-mentioned lithium battery industry insiders believe that "the follow-up price increase of car companies reflects the abundant orders of best-selling brands and the confidence of demand, which better hedges the impact of battery price increases from the perspective of price increases." The secretary general of the association also said that short-term price fluctuations will not have a greater impact on the sales target of 5.5 million vehicles this year.
As for when the price of upstream lithium materials will be lowered, the above-mentioned power battery companies said, "There may be an inflection point in the second quarter, but if the new energy vehicle market continues to be hot, car companies can continue to bear the pressure of rising costs, then the second half of this year may not have a price decline." ”
（James）