Written | Wu Xianzhi Leng Zelin
Edit the | Wang Pan
On March 25, Beijing time, NIO released its financial data for the full and fourth quarter of 2021.
According to the financial report, in the whole year of 2021, Wei achieved revenue of 36.14 billion yuan, an increase of 122.3% year-on-year, and the gross profit margin of the whole vehicle was 20.1%. Adjusted net loss for the full year was RMB3.01 billion, down 41.2% year-on-year
Specific to a single quarter, WEILAI achieved revenue of 9.9 billion yuan in the fourth quarter, an increase of 49.1% year-on-year. Gross profit was RMB1.7 billion, an increase of 48.8% year-on-year, and adjusted net loss was RMB1.75 billion.
Earlier, when the ideal announced the same period of earnings, under the condition that the supply chain has not yet come out of the predicament, it has taken the lead in achieving single-quarter profitability. This fact shows that the competition for new cars has changed from simply surviving and delivering more than 10,000 months to the comprehensive operation of enterprises.
Although the current new energy upstream raw materials have risen sharply, resulting in OEMs have also raised prices, but Li Bin revealed in a conference call that Weilai does not have the idea of raising prices at present, and will next see whether the pricing policy will be adjusted according to market conditions.
The battle for operational efficiency
When the monthly delivery volume crossed the 10,000 mark, due to the difference in user groups, price ranges, and main models, it became less reliable to only take the delivery data to see the market competition pattern.
Switching from living to how to live will be the next thing that Weilai needs to think about.
For example, in December 2021, Weilai delivered 10,489 vehicles, and Nezha delivered 10,127 vehicles in the same period seemed infinitely approaching, but the prices, market strategies and models of the two products were completely different, and the monthly delivery exceeded 10,000, which had a completely different meaning for the two - Yu Nezha meant to occupy a place in the sinking market, and Yu Weilai was not only the expansion of the user group, but also brought more users to the power exchange service.
Photon Planet analysis of the monthly delivery data released by Weilai in the past year found that after entering the second half of last year, Weilai was affected by the supply chain and workshop commissioning, and the delivery volume growth had fluctuated sharply from the previous month. In the lowest months of August and October, the sharp decline in ES6 seriously dragged down the overall data.
Among the three SUVs that have been released so far, ES8, ES6 and EC6, from the 13-month delivery situation, ES6 determines whether the entire market of WEILAI is stable. It is worth noting that from the second half of last year to this year, Landu FREE, Free home NV, Ideal L9, Xiaopeng G9, AITO Q&I M5 have poured into 400,000 or medium-sized SUVs, which means that ES6 will face unprecedented fierce competition.
In the past 13 months, ES6 has sold a total of 46,721 units, which is much inferior to the ideal ONE, not to mention that there are other brands behind it, and the fierceness of the SUV battle may be the most serious for new energy vehicles.
In addition to the model, the ideal is that Wei Xiaoli has the highest gross profit margin among the three, thanks to the efficiency and overall cost control, it has achieved profitability in the fourth quarter of last year. Similarly, Weilai positioned itself in the middle and high-end, with the maturity of the industrial chain, workshop and sales network, after the gross profit margin is positive, it is quite close to structural profitability.
Since the second quarter of 2020, the gross profit margin of vehicles reached 9.7%, in the past seven quarters, the overall gross profit margin of WEILAI has risen from 8.4% quarter by quarter to 17.2% of this quarter, and the gross profit of vehicles has also reached 20.9%.
Specific to the cost side, Weilai still maintains a high growth rate in terms of sales costs, which is the main factor hindering its net profit from turning losses into profits. Especially since entering 2021, various types of expenses have shown an accelerated expansion trend, only because the revenue growth rate is higher, covering marketing sales and management expenses, and positive gross profits are obtained. However, due to the high overall operating costs, the short-term net profit is still not positive.
This year, the tight supply of chips continues, which will further hinder the release of mid-to-high-end models. Earlier, some car companies revealed to Photon Planet that in order to cope with the shortage, OEMs will often raise their procurement plans on the basis of real demand to obtain more chips, and suppliers will also examine the needs reported by car companies to meet a certain proportion, after all, they have limited surplus grain in their hands.
It should be noted that only by increasing the volume of deliveries can we ensure that revenue maintains a growth trend, thus covering the rapidly rising cost of sales. The scissor difference between revenue and cost is the only way for Wei to achieve a turnaround, so we believe that the commissioning of the new hefei plant will be the key node of whether it can turn around the loss.
"Because the world is changing so fast, we need to make a connection between goals and actions, and it's very important to have a link between what we do in 2023, 2024 and what we're doing now in 2021." Earlier this year, Li Bin told photon planets.
From the perspective of financial and delivery data, the problem of WEILAI's relatively low operational efficiency is the main factor that it is gradually catching up or even surpassing. But we carefully count the changes in Weilai this year, based on Li Bin's self-description, Weilai's layout is like a picture scroll slowly unfolding.
In 2021, the lack of new car delivery is the main reason why the growth rate of WEILai's delivery volume is not as fast as that of other OEMs. And we go back further, this reason may also be related to Weilai's style of "opening and closing" in spending money.
If Li Xiang is a model housewife who is diligent and thrifty, then Li Bin is a family pillar who is good at socializing outside.
According to 36Kr, Weilai's departing executives said in an interview, "Weilai's main focus is the C-end product experience, and we do research and development without considering the BOM (bill of materials) cost." ”
For the case of Weilai emphasizing service, we have heard too much, Li Bin personally stood on the platform, participated in activities, and even lost the image of Polite and Easy-going, "scolding" the staff's service is not thoughtful, regardless of the cost of building Weilai Center, Weilai Space and so on.
Too much emphasis on service and user feelings makes Weilai spend money like flowing water, but also indirectly occupies part of the research and development costs, resulting in no money to spend when the "cold winter" comes, and the follow-up product update is not timely. However, the relationship between Weilai and the user is also like a couple who have spent a hot love period, and it is difficult to sort out the gains and losses of one party in it.
In 2019, users saved Weilai, but it is foreseeable that the "drama" of services in the next competition may be lower and lower, so the new energy boom in 2021 does not belong to Weilai, but is more like a buffer period for Weilai.
Weilai's "picture scroll"
2021 is the first year that NIO has not delivered new cars, but relatively, this year's NIO will usher in three new car deliveries. In "2022, WEILAI Run", we have partially interpreted Weilai's current strategy:
Nio's ES6 and ES8 play an anchoring role (the same is true for cars), determining the overall price range of the NIO brand, while ES7 explores the needs of subdivided users. And Weilai did not choose to continue to explore or sink like Tesla, most likely to deepen its brand strength in this range.
This is true in the short term, but in the long run, Weilai is ready to sink. Li Bin has publicly stated many times that the NIO brand is mainly entering the high-end luxury market, and Weilai will set up a separate brand to launch lower-priced models.
The starting price of the ET5 328,000 yuan (BaaS solution 258,000 yuan) has been calibrated as the lowest price for the NIO brand. The emergence of ES7 and the possible future ET6 are further consolidating its position as a high-end brand. When the NIO brand product line is complete, it is the time when Weilai sinks, considering the entry of technology companies such as Xiaomi, Jidu and other companies and the existing competition situation in the mass market, Weilai's sinking action should not wait too long.
Compared with the ideal single explosive product strategy and Xiaopeng's bottom-up brand strategy, the advantages of Weilai's layout in the high-end market at the beginning have gradually emerged.
In terms of supply chain, due to the epidemic interruption and chip shortage last year, the entire car market was haunted by the impact of insufficient production capacity. In addition to the price, Weilai's intransigence also made it suffer losses in delivery, on the contrary, the ideal, Xiaopeng's more flexible strategy of getting on the train first and then making up the ticket has brought it a certain advantage in data. The reason for this, we can also understand that this is a part of NIO's strategy to consolidate high-end brands.
Of course, this can not hide the lack of supply chain management and emergency strategy, although from 2019 WEILAI began to set up a variety of emergency teams, but similar incidents have also allowed Li Bin to begin to take a variety of coping strategies.
"One of the big things we have in 2021 is that we and our supply chain partners will discuss the long-term plan for 3 years, 5 years."
Since the automotive supply chain is a very long chain, the time for the demand side to be transmitted to the supply side is also relatively long. Last year's sudden increase in new energy sales and the rapid popularization of intelligence have led to a sharp increase in demand for chips, and the corresponding market will have a "lag". NIO's long-term strategic planning will help supply chain partners match production capacity early and improve overall efficiency.
Why is WEILAI only starting to do this now? This should be seen from two aspects, on the one hand, the construction of the production line will consume a lot of time and financial resources, and whether the main engine factory has the ability to digest these capacities after the completion of the construction tests the confidence and determination of the supply chain. On the other hand, the opening of molds and the upgrading of production lines in the automotive supply chain often means that the main engine factory needs to pay a "mold opening fee" ranging from hundreds of thousands to millions, and the car involves tens of thousands of parts, which is also a considerable expense for the main engine factory.
Weilai began to do this, which means that market confidence and the funds in hand are enough to support this strategy. According to the financial report data, the balance of NIO's cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash and short-term investments in the report was 55.4 billion yuan.
In the overseas market, at present, we see that Weilai is also the most radical among the new car-making forces. Nezha chose the Southeast Asian market that better matched its own products; Xiaopeng went to sea through cooperation with local distributors in Europe; Ideal has formed a team according to official news, but has not yet announced plans to go to sea.
At present, only WEILAI has adopted self-built channels and substations in Europe, and in the short term, it has not put the volume first, but is trying to overcome cultural differences and be familiar with the market environment and policies.
Faced with a market that may be the complete opposite, Li Bin himself also showed in a meeting with the Norwegian general manager that he was less concerned about delivery and more concerned about user satisfaction.
In China, Weilai's action outside the automobile market is still not small. This month, Weilai became the second main engine factory after Geely to announce its entry into the mobile phone industry.
At present, the intelligence of automobiles and the interconnection of vehicles and machines are more and more valued, which has attracted the snooping of many Internet companies, and is even regarded by the industry as the next "traffic depression" in the post-mobile Internet era. The collision of hardware and software has also triggered changes in industry rules, such as Huawei, which cannot be simply positioned as a Tier1 role, began to appear.
Automatic driving, vehicle-road coordination aside, take the current car machine intelligence, how to get on the car, who adapts, who dominates, how to maintain after-sales, in fact, the division of labor in the industrial chain is not as clear as that of fuel vehicles. The entry of the main engine factory into the mobile phone field can actually be seen as a struggle for the control of the car machine, is it a lower cost and more efficient way to map to the car machine through the mobile phone?
epilogue
Of course, Weilai's picture scroll is large enough, but it is not clear enough, the steps are too large, and the solutions to many problems need to be further revealed.
Will the sinking brand share services and sales channels with the NIO brand, if it is shared, will the service advantage of high-end users weaken and cause dissatisfaction among old users; if it is not shared, will it take a lot of energy and financial resources to rebuild its own channels, or pick up the franchise strategy that has been abandoned?
The increase brought by the intensive cultivation of the NIO brand market segment is certainly far less effective than the strategy of Xiaopeng or Tesla to "lengthen the front line and attack at multiple points", and now the ideal, Tesla has achieved profitability, Xiaopeng is running on the road of rapid growth, only Weilai seems to be in the adjustment period.
In 2021, we see that WEILAI is constantly adjusting its posture, digesting food accumulation, laying out a bigger strategy, and also setting greater challenges for itself.