Semiconductor materials + photovoltaic + new energy vehicles, the company's products in the next 2 years in short supply and demand price increase can be expected, this year's revenue side or increased by nearly 60%
Leon Micro (605358):
(1) The semiconductor boom cycle adheres to the law of "equipment first, manufacturing relay, material shortage", and currently enters the material shortage stage characterized by the silicon wafer crisis, and the demand for subsequent semiconductor materials increases by 50%+;
(2) The company focuses on the development of 12-inch silicon wafer business, and builds 150,000 pieces/month 12-inch silicon wafer production capacity by the end of 2021, and 12-inch silicon wafer production capacity is expected to increase rapidly in 2022, and this year's silicon wafer revenue is expected to increase by 61% year-on-year;
(3) The company's power device products are mainly used in photovoltaic and automotive electronics and other fields, the company's automotive-related power devices through Bosch / Continental and other certifications, long-term benefit from the rapid growth of downstream demand;
(4) The company's net profit attributable to the parent is expected to be 9.5/12.8/1.45 billion yuan, an increase of 59%/35%/13% year-on-year;
(5) Risk warning: Downstream demand is less than expected.
The earthquake in Japan has aroused the market's attention to the semiconductor materials track, and this column has covered JianghuaWei today: March 17 " Japan Sudden Earthquake! The tension in the semiconductor supply chain may be intensified, the localization rate of this segment is only 10%, the domestic leading production capacity has doubled, and it has been bought by institutions.
Chen Hang, the electronics team of Founder Securities, believes that the semiconductor boom cycle adheres to the law of "equipment first, manufacturing relay, material shortage", and currently enters the material shortage stage characterized by the silicon wafer crisis, corresponding to the growth rate of domestic equipment + domestic materials is close to 50%, which is the first growth rate of all science and technology growth sectors.
The latest coverage of Leon Micro, the company's main 6/8/12 inch semiconductor silicon polishing wafer / epitaxial wafer, as well as power devices, the current company's 12-inch silicon wafer shipments accelerated, and power devices in photovoltaic, new energy vehicles driven by rapid growth.
It is estimated that the company's net profit attributable to the mother in 2022-2024 will be 9.5/12.8/1.45 billion yuan, an increase of 59%/35%/13% year-on-year, giving 60 times PE in 2022, the company's reasonable valuation in 2022 is 57 billion yuan, corresponding to the stock price of 125 yuan, covering for the first time, giving a "buy" rating.
The silicon wafer industry boom continues, and the company's 12-inch rapid volume
After experiencing a trough in 2019, semiconductor wafer shipments accelerated in 2020-21. Downstream fab capital expenditure increase to drive silicon wafer demand growth, wafer plant expansion lags behind, it is expected that 2022-23 wafer production capacity continues to outstrip demand, the world's second largest wafer mill SUMCO is expected to continue to increase prices at least until 2024.
Leon Micro has a leading technology in domestic re-doped silicon wafers, and downstream customers include SMIC, Huahong Hongli, China Resources Microelectronics, Silan Micro and other well-known fabs.
In the future, the company will focus on the development of 12-inch silicon wafer business, light and heavy doping go hand in hand, at the end of 2021 to build 150,000 pieces / month 12-inch silicon wafer production capacity, 2022 12 inches is expected to be rapidly increased, in March spent 1.5 billion yuan to acquire 78% of the shares of Guojing Semiconductor, improve the company's 12-inch light wafer layout.
Guojin Securities expects the company's silicon wafer business revenue to be 2.4/33 billion yuan in 2022-23, an increase of 61%/39% year-on-year.
New energy vehicles and photovoltaics have driven the growth of the company's power devices
Power semiconductors are mainly used in automotive, industrial and consumer electronics and other fields, and are the core devices that realize the conversion of electrical energy such as inverter and frequency conversion.
The company's power device products mainly include Schottky diode chips and finished, MOSFET chips, mainly used in photovoltaic and automotive electronics and other fields.
The company's segment is highly competitive, occupying 45% of the global share of photovoltaic Schottky diodes, and the company's automotive-related power devices have passed Bosch/Continental certification, benefiting from the rapid growth of downstream demand for a long time.
At present, the shortage of power devices has not eased, or further price increases, and it is expected that the revenue growth rate of power devices in 2022-23 will be 27%/20%.
