Was the earthquake in Japan most affected by the photoresist/wafer supply chain? Many leading manufacturers are closer to the source of the earthquake and have stopped production after the earthquake, and the shortage of supply of the product is likely to continue throughout the year
Essentials of automotive chips (Silan Micro, Zhongying Electronics, Zhongke Chuangda):
(1) The earthquake in Fukushima, Japan, is different from market expectations, Nomura Oriental International Song Jin believes that the supply impact of photoresist/silicon wafers and so on may be relatively limited, but the shortage of on-board chip supply may be aggravated;
(2) Automotive intelligence + electrification to drive the upgrading of the overall industrial value chain composition, automotive chip content + importance doubled, Tianfeng Securities Pan Huan expects automotive semiconductors to account for 50% of the total cost of automobiles in 2030, will become a new profit growth point for automobiles;
(3) Pan Huan believes that the continuous shortage of automotive chips is mainly due to the rapid warming of the original auto market demand in the post-epidemic era and the continuous superposition of new energy vehicles and other new demand, as well as the increase in the volume and price of chips driven by the new four modernizations of automobiles, and the lack of cores may continue throughout the year;
(4) Risk factors: changes in industrial policies, intensification of international trade disputes, and the development of downstream industries is less than expected.
Event: A 7.3 magnitude earthquake occurred in Fukushima Prefecture in tohoku, Japan, which had a great impact on the power supply and rail transit in Tohoku Japan.
Song Jin of Nomura Oriental International: The impact of supply such as photoresist/silicon wafers may be relatively limited, and the shortage of on-board chip supply may be aggravated
Contrary to market expectations, Song Jin believes that the impact of the earthquake on the supply of photoresist/silicon wafers may be relatively limited, and the shortage of vehicle chip supply may be aggravated.
In terms of wafers: Japanese wafer leader Shin-etsu Chemical announced that some of its plants have been discontinued, but have not yet announced the specific businesses affected; another wafer leader, SUMCO Yonezawa Plant (Yamagata Prefecture), continues to produce, and sumco plants are concentrated in the Kyushu area, so the impact is minimal.
Photoresist: The photoresist leader Tokyo Yinghua Kunisan Factory (Koriyama City, Fukushima Prefecture, producing KrF, ArF, etc.) is relatively close to the source of the earthquake, and on the afternoon of March 17, the company announced that the production equipment of the plant was not damaged, and the follow-up will be carried out to restore the quality inspection and other back-end engineering devices, and further confirm the impact.
In terms of automotive chips: Renesas Electronics, a leading Japanese semiconductor manufacturer, announced that the company's Naka plant (Ibaraki Prefecture, which produces vehicle and general-purpose MCUs, general-purpose chips, SOCs, etc.), Takasaki plant (Gunma Prefecture, producing power equipment and analog chips, etc.), Yonezawa plant (Yamagata Prefecture, production of vehicle-mounted and general-purpose MCUs, etc.) has stopped production after the earthquake due to its proximity to the source of the earthquake, and is currently under safety investigation.
Pan Huan of Tianfeng Securities: The content + importance of automobile chips has increased exponentially, and the "four modernizations" have aggravated the shortage of automobiles
Automotive intelligence + electrification to drive the upgrading of the overall industrial value chain composition, automotive chip content + importance doubled, Pan Wei expects automotive semiconductors to account for 50% of the total cost of automobiles in 2030, will become a new profit growth point for automobiles.
Pan Wei believes that the main reason for the continued shortage of automotive chips is that the new demand for the original automobile market in the post-epidemic era continues to exceed expectations such as the rapid warming of the original automobile market demand and the new energy vehicles, and the new four modernizations of automobiles have led to the rise in chip volume and price.
(1) Power semiconductors: it is expected to give priority to local substitution, MOS, IGBT this year is likely to be difficult to alleviate, 6, 8 inches is particularly scarce.
(2) MCU: Structural mitigation continues, especially in vehicle-grade MCUs.
(3) Sensor chip: In the future, with the increase in the number of carriers, the shortage problem will exist for a long time.
(4) SoC chip: The concentration of high-performance products is high, and the risk of out-of-stock continues to exist.
(5) Memory chips: The proportion of the automotive semiconductor market is expected to continue to increase, and the price of products will rise due to out-of-stock.
