If there is no accident, the domestic refined oil price will usher in an upward cycle on Thursday, and the retail price of No. 95 gasoline is expected to reach 9.5 yuan / liter, once again challenging the 10 yuan / liter mark. In a word, "95 full", it may become the first to add 200 yuan. Therefore, this incident directly triggered the fight between the loyal fuel party of the car on the Internet and the new electric faction. Fuel car owners in the spit on the high price of oil, can not help but curse the high oil price, indeed the high oil price is a bit unbearable, in the past to fill a tank of oil may get three or four hundred yuan, now I am afraid to get five or six hundred yuan or even more; and for the owner of the electric car, the owner of the car is simply happy to blossom, because the charging in their eyes is almost like not money. The cost level has more advantages than fuel vehicles, not to mention that people have not paid attention to oil prices for a long time, that is, they just want to show off the freedom of travel of electric vehicles. In the end, who is the "big smart", I think this matter needs to be viewed from multiple dimensions and from different positions.
Fuel vehicle owners began to be anxious
As early as the beginning of this month, a new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window has been opened, from the national situation, gasoline and diesel prices have risen by about 200 yuan / ton, equivalent to liters. No. 0 diesel rose by 0.22 yuan per liter, No. 92 gasoline rose by 0.2 yuan per liter, and No. 95 gasoline rose by 0.22 yuan per liter. From the current situation, although the international crude oil price has ended the strong upward trend, it will not affect the next round of china's refined oil prices, and the rise may also be at the "upper limit" level, which is the ins and outs of the "No. 95 gasoline or fully enter the 9 yuan era" that we hear.
If you are a fuel car owner, see such remarks, do you panic inside? It is undeniable that the recent rise in oil prices will prompt many potential car buyers to turn their attention to new energy vehicles, and sometimes a consumer behavior does need the right opportunity.
◆ Policy level
In recent years, the reason for the rapid development of pure electric vehicle sales is more due to the well-known policy orientation. For example, Shanghai issues license plates for new energy vehicles free of charge; the indicators for household and individual passenger cars in Beijing are also tilted towards new energy pure electric vehicles. It's not that everyone doesn't want to buy gasoline cars, but the policy restrictions don't allow it. Of course, in order to achieve energy conservation and emission reduction, the state is also vigorously advocating the purchase of new energy vehicles. In recent years, domestic electric vehicle sales and supporting facilities have begun to rise year by year, citing documents from the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments, by the end of 2021, the scale of charging facilities nationwide will reach 2.617 million units, 1298 replacement power stations, serving nearly 8 million new energy vehicles.
The picture shows the subsidy policies of countries for new energy vehicles in 2020
For the development of the automobile industry, the current national policy is also to transform into a new energy industry. Domestic independent brand car companies, especially those with new car manufacturing forces, have made remarkable progress in traditional manufacturing capabilities, have deep technical reserves in electrification, and have a positive layout in terms of intelligence. Indeed, the competitive advantage of the new energy vehicle market represented by pure electric vehicles is more obvious. The following reasons also contribute to the recognition of pure electric vehicles by consumers. First of all, the product strength has been significantly improved, and the model matrix is obviously rich; secondly, the assistance of car purchase subsidies, taking China as an example, the maximum subsidy for new energy vehicles in 2022 is 13,000 yuan, which is obvious compared with the decline but still maintains a larger intensity; the third is the continuous improvement of infrastructure.
◆ Product level
Electric vehicles or fuel vehicles, which costs less? Which one is more cost-effective to buy? In fact, there are four main decisive factors, namely the cost of car purchase, the cost of using the car, the cost of maintenance and the retention rate. In the choice of new energy vehicles or traditional fuel vehicles, it is reasonable to say that it is reasonable to say that it is reasonable. Some people believe that new energy vehicles use electricity as a driving method, which is more environmentally friendly to use, and the price of electricity is much lower than the price of oil, so the cost of use is lower. But some people believe that the price of new energy vehicles is generally relatively high, if there is no state subsidy, it is difficult for ordinary people to afford new energy vehicles. Moreover, although the electricity consumption of new energy vehicles is cheap, the battery has a life cycle, and replacing the battery will be a large expense.
1) Electric vehicle advantages
Let's start with the advantages of electric vehicles. If you travel 10,000 kilometers a year, the use of electric vehicles can save 2,000-5,000 yuan in costs, which fluctuate up and down according to the way of charging. Electric vehicles are more and more economical, and they are much more and more economical. In addition to the charging price advantage, the mileage of electric vehicles is also rising year by year. In recent years, the technological progress of power batteries has been obvious to all, in 2014, most models have a mileage of 100 to 200km, and by 2020, most of the vehicle mileage will increase to 400~600km, of which the mileage of more than 400km accounts for 60%. It is expected that more models with a range of 1000km will be launched in the future, and the mileage of new energy vehicles is close to that of traditional fuel vehicles, alleviating mileage anxiety.
Advances in battery technology have enabled most models to achieve 0.5h fast charging, and the convenience of charging has been significantly improved. In addition, the average price of power batteries in 2020 is 0.81 yuan / Wh, which is only 36% of 2015. With the decline in the price of power batteries year by year, the gap between the purchase cost of new energy vehicles and traditional fuel vehicles has further narrowed. The cost of owning a car has also become the reason why pure electric vehicles have received more widespread attention. As for the maintenance cost, the structure of new energy vehicles is simple, not like fuel vehicles, it is necessary to replace a large amount of oil and body equipment, and the daily cost of an electric vehicle may be less than 1/10 of that of fuel vehicles. In specific scenarios such as urban cars, the use of pure trams can save a lot of costs, and it is important to note that the specific use scenarios mentioned here are mentioned.
2) Advantages of fuel vehicles
What are the advantages of fuel vehicles? In contrast, although the price of gasoline for fuel vehicles is temporarily high, the time cost of refueling is low, and the convenience of replenishment is a condition that must be possessed for running long distances, which is difficult for pure electric vehicles to achieve. In the northern region, most of the old residential areas are fixed, the parking spaces are not fixed, and the charging efficiency is worrying. Usually there is a place to park is good, not at all extravagant can have a dedicated fixed charging parking space. What is said here is the cost of the civil 220V power grid, if it is charged in the public charging pile, parking fee + electricity fee + service fee, the comprehensive 2 yuan once electricity is the average price, and the electricity price is not much more cost-effective than the gasoline car refueling. Fuel vehicles do not exist in the power battery replacement situation, now the mature pure electric vehicle power battery is generally more than 8 years also to the life replacement cycle, Volkswagen an electric vehicle type a battery cost is tens of thousands of yuan, converted down in fact, not gasoline cost is expensive. In addition, everyone has a short car replacement cycle, and the salvage rate of second-hand cars is also a factor that needs to be measured before buying a car. The overall retention rate of new energy vehicles is not as good as that of traditional fuel vehicles, and even many electric vehicles drive for two years, and the price of vehicles is cut off.
For example, on the evening of March 9, the Weibo content of Shen Hui, CEO of WM Motors (see the picture above), caused public discussion, and the first article of the popular comment directly refused: "Resolutely do not buy a live car", and some netizens echoed "Unless the oil car is not allowed to go on the road, it is resolute not to buy a tram". Such a view does not make sense, let's take an example, the difference between the fuel version of a model and the new energy pure electric version is as small as about 70,000 yuan. Even if the oil price rises to 10 yuan / liter, still choose to buy a fuel car, use the difference of 70,000 yuan to refuel, 100 kilometers of fuel consumption according to 9 liters, enough to pay close to 80,000 kilometers of fuel expenditure costs. Maybe 80,000 kilometers of the car will be sold.
◆ Future trends
So in the end, is the fuel car owner right, or the pure electric vehicle owner's remarks represent the future trend? I think that oil vehicles and electric vehicles will coexist for a long time, and there is no need to sing the decline of the fuel vehicle market in advance. Major car companies, whether it is a joint venture brand or a Chinese independent brand in the new energy model, has not ignored and forgotten the traditional fuel vehicle market, new energy instead of fuel vehicles is the future trend, but it is not a fact that can be subverted in the short term. In 2022, domestic consumers will still see many blockbuster models such as Audi Q6, BMW's new 7 Series, and domestic tank 500, all of which are fuel versions, and even large-displacement 6-cylinder internal combustion engines, how to see the decline of the market? This is not the case.
I think the best energy-saving and environmentally friendly options for the future are gasoline-electric hybrid vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles. At this stage, if there is no limit to purchase, no limit to the license plate, hybrid models are a good choice, whether it is Liangtian, BYD, Geely, Great Wall, etc., their hybrid models have a good driving experience and low cost of the car, the retention rate is not much worse than that of fuel vehicles. If it is a limited-license city, in order to avoid the winter mileage anxiety and charging difficulties caused by electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles can be considered as a transitional model. The pure electric endurance of the plug-in hybrid model is enough to cope with daily commuting, the refueling can also be competent for long-distance travel, and the policy can also enjoy similar license plate and restriction policies as pure electric vehicle models. Independent brand car companies have also seen the advantages of the market for plug-in and mixed models and have made efforts. For example, Geely launched Thor Hybrid, Changan's IDD Hybrid, Chery has Kunpeng DHT Hybrid, etc. According to the data of the Association, the cumulative sales of plug-in and hybrid models will reach 545,000 units in 2021, an increase of 171.1% year-on-year. In February this year, plug-in hybrid sales of 73,000 units, up 359% year-on-year.
Electric vehicles and fuel vehicles have their own advantages and disadvantages, no one is better than anyone, in most scenarios, fuel vehicle performance is indeed better than pure electric vehicles. However, in specific use scenarios, pure trams must widen the gap in the cost of fuel vehicles. In fact, the cost of fuel vehicles is rising, for electric vehicles, is a very good opportunity, the demand for new energy is already a very strong momentum, oil prices have come to four consecutive rises, will make many consumers who want to choose fuel vehicles change their choices. But there's really no need to fight for this thing, you lose and I win.