Recently, following the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, global commodity prices have generated huge price fluctuations, and crude oil prices have broken through $100 / barrel for the first time in nearly 8 years. It is also the third time in the history of crude oil to break through $100, the first two in March 2008 and January 2011, the first highest rush to $147, lasting 6 months; the second highest rush to $128 and maintained for more than 3 years. This time, and the rapid rise in oil prices, is a real-world case of global carbon emissions and energy security.
In our lives, as the price of No. 92 and No. 95 oil began to soar, the impact on ordinary consumers is actually relatively large, in this sense, The life cycle cost advantage of China's new energy vehicles has begun to appear.
Figure 1 Historical review of crude oil prices
Part 1: Impact of refined oil prices
On March 3, the domestic refined oil price adjustment window opened, and the No. 92 gasoline was raised by 0.2 yuan per liter, and the No. 95 gasoline was raised by 0.22 yuan per liter. The next round of refined oil price adjustment will be carried out on March 17, and March 8 is the third working day of the 10-working day statistical cycle, the rate of change of crude oil is 24.01%, and it is expected to raise the oil price by about 1040 yuan / ton, equivalent to an increase of about 0.78-0.94 yuan / liter.
Figure 2 The price of No. 92 gasoline in China
1) From the perspective of TO C
For consumption, the price of No. 92 gasoline in 2021 is only 5.5-5.7 yuan / L, and the price of gasoline will break through 9 yuan / L immediately, this growth rate is really difficult to accept. The rise in oil prices has increased the cost of users' cars, which is one of the reasons why some users choose new energy vehicles. Taking a typical medium-sized car as an example, in the case of high-speed driving and less driving in urban areas, the average fuel consumption is about 9L/100km, and the annual fuel cost is about 8100-12100 yuan.
Figure 3 Average monthly mileage traveled by different cities (Traveled mileage of Vehicle Kilometres Travelled vehicles over a certain period of time)
If consumers have their own charging piles, according to the electricity cost to estimate that they only need 1500-2250 kWh of electricity (15 degrees per 100 kilometers), Civil electricity (0.3-0.35kWh in the valley electricity) the lowest price can be controlled at 450-700 blocks, even according to the external public charging pile 1.5-2 yuan charging cost to calculate, the annual driving of 10,000 kilometers of charging costs of about 2500-4000 yuan, the lower cost of new energy vehicles has become an important reason for consumers to choose new energy vehicles (urban commuting cost-effective). And as the number of commuter miles increases each month, this perceived price difference is very large. In the development of new energy vehicles in China, it has experienced from policy-driven to policy-driven to market-driven.
2) From the perspective of TO B
In the ride-hailing and taxi industry, under heavy-duty operation, high oil prices are accelerating the landing of pure electric vehicles, due to the average daily mileage - operating vehicles starting from 200 kilometers, averaging 6,000-15,000 kilometers per month - this cost account is particularly obvious. So my understanding is that 2022 will be another shift brought about by the "driver's economic account". This is due to the current operating status of online ride-hailing, and the increase in oil prices has greatly increased the cost of oil vehicles, which has greatly squeezed the cost performance of pure electric vehicles in this market.
In the operation of vehicles, in 2021 the total sales of new energy passenger vehicles is 354,900 units, of which 342,700 pure electric vehicles, accounting for 66.82%, before the electrification of operating vehicles promoted by the government has become the mainstream, and now the rise in oil prices, the cost of use will allow online ride-hailing drivers and taxi drivers to make their own choices according to the ledger.
Part 2: The need for charging piles
The latest statistics of China's public charging infrastructure in January 2022, we can take a closer look at - in January 2022, there were 1.178 million public charging piles, of which 486,000 were DC charging piles and 691,000 were AC charging piles. At present, the cost difference brought by DC charging has become more important, so the demand for fast charging is really rigid.
Figure 4 The OPERATOR's DC pile is a steamed bun
According to relevant data, the number of insurances in the first week of March continued the penetration rate of the fourth week of February, reaching 25.8% - 94,000 new energy vehicles in the first week of March (17,750 PHEV and 75,839 BEVs), 16,496 hybrids, only 251,200 fuel vehicles, and the overall market of 363,000 units.
brief summary:
The development of new energy vehicles is an inevitable choice on a global scale, and the process is from government policy promotion, to the combination of market and policy, and then to complete marketization. The stimulation brought by high oil prices, I think, is a very important part of "new energy vehicles deeply rooted in the hearts of the people".
Figure | network and related screenshots
About author:Zhu Yulong, senior electric vehicle three-electric system and automotive electronics engineer, author of "Automotive Electronics Hardware Design".
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