The power exchange market, which has been quite quiet, ushered in a development climax in early 2022, and some people even regard 2022 as the first year of the development of the power exchange industry.
On the one hand, starting from 2020, the policy began to gradually support the development of the power exchange model, and in the new energy subsidy policy, it was clearly proposed that the power exchange model was not subject to the upper limit of the price of less than 300,000 yuan (including 300,000 yuan).
In October 2021, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice to organize the pilot of the power exchange model, 11 cities were shortlisted, and a number of passenger car companies laid out the power exchange and completed the announcement of the power exchange model.
On the other hand, more and more forces began to enter the power exchange industry, and the landmark event was that in January this year, the giant Ningde Times, which occupies 50% of the market share of power batteries, announced its entry into the power exchange market.
With the entry of the Ningde era, the players in the entire power exchange operation service market can be roughly divided into two categories and four gates:
Two categories: one represents the main engine factory, and the other represents the third-party operation service provider;
The four gate schools: the car enterprise faction represented by Weilai and Geely; the independent operation service enterprise represented by Aodong; the power battery enterprise represented by the Ningde era; and the energy supply enterprise represented by Sinopec and PetroChina.
Judging from the plans announced by the current companies, according to incomplete statistics, by 2025, there will be at least more than 20,000 new substations in China, and the corresponding operating market size is expected to reach 263.1 billion yuan, and the power exchange equipment market will reach 69.3 billion yuan.
From this point of view, the power exchange market has great prospects for development.
Under the temptation of the huge "cake", many companies began to compete for the deer, but the development of the power exchange industry so far, still faces the challenges of high cost investment, inconsistent battery standards, and business models that have not achieved closed loops.
Some industry insiders said in their communication with the heart of the car that by 2025, there will only be 3-4 head players in the power exchange market.
So, after the race, who will finally break through the challenge and become the leading player in the power exchange operation service market?
01
The power exchange service is solidified, what is the purpose of the car company dispatch?
According to data from the Ministry of Public Security, by the end of 2021, the number of new energy vehicles in the country will reach 7.84 million, accounting for 2.6% of the total number of vehicles, an increase of 59.25% compared with the previous year, of which the number of pure electric vehicles is 6.4 million, accounting for 81.63% of the total number of new energy vehicles.
In 2021, there will be 2.95 million newly registered new energy vehicles nationwide, accounting for 11.25% of the total number of newly registered vehicles, an increase of 1.78 million units compared with the previous year, an increase of 151.61%.
In the past five years, the number of new energy vehicles has been showing a rapid growth trend, which has allowed car companies to comprehensively transform the new energy market, and also made the new energy supplementary field another market with trillions of development potential.
At present, there are three more mainstream energy supplementation schemes in the market, charging, power exchange and hydrogen energy batteries, of which the hydrogen energy battery solution has not entered the mainstream for the time being due to immature technology and too few hydrogen refueling stations.
Whether it is charging, or replacing electricity, its essence is a kind of power replenishment behavior for the battery, and for mass consumers, the convenience and efficiency of power replenishment are the core of their concerns.
In fact, this is also one of the main purposes of Weilai's construction of a replacement power station, which will replace electricity as a supplement to the energy replenishment network, so that consumers have one more choice in the way of replenishment.
Shen Fei, vice president of Weilai, told auto heart that the construction of the energy replenishment network plays a vital role in accelerating the promotion of electric vehicles and improving brand competitiveness.
Shen Fei also said that the advantages of energy replacement experience brought by power exchange, battery rental services, battery health monitoring, and flexible battery upgrades are important components of the competitiveness of WEILAI's system, and Weilai will firmly invest in the construction of charging and replacing networks.
As of January 26, 2022, WEILAI has built 818 substations, including 212 expressway substations, providing users with more than 6.4 million power exchange services and a power exchange penetration rate of more than 70%.
Weilai is a relatively special existence in the current power exchange market, because from the beginning of the establishment of the power exchange system, the object of its service is the owner of its own models, which belongs to the C-end consumers.
Although Weilai said that its penetration rate of power replacement has exceeded 70%, from the current construction of the energy replenishment network, the demand for C-end consumers for power replacement is not high.
According to the data, as of June 2021, the cumulative number of charging infrastructure (public + private) in the country was 1.947 million units, an increase of 47.3% year-on-year.
Charging piles have basically covered the scope of people's daily lives, and C-end consumers can use their leisure time to recharge energy.
On the contrary, for the B-end market group, especially taxi and online car users, time is money. The significant advantage of the swap mode over charging is that it saves time. In general, a car changes power in about 3-5 minutes.
Therefore, among the car companies, the enterprises represented by Geely, the entry point of the layout of power exchange, is more to serve the power exchange models of its travel platform.
Just in January this year, Geely and Lifan Technology announced the establishment of a joint venture company, Chongqing Ruilan Automobile, which will enter the market as a new "power exchange travel brand" in the future.
As early as 2017, Geely Automobile began to invest in the research and development of the power exchange mode, and its R & D personnel exceeded 1,000 people, conducted more than 30,000 related experiments, and had more than 1,000 patents.
On September 16, 2020, Geely took the lead in landing the first substation in the Re-Liangjiang New Area, of which a single station can serve 1,000 trains per day.
Up to now, Geely Technology Group has signed more than 1,000 substations across the country, and by 2025, it will achieve the goal of operating 5,000 intelligent substations worldwide, which shows that once the policy is clear, Geely's ambitions in the construction of substations are still very large.
At present, in addition to Weilai and Geely, traditional car companies, including SAIC and Dongfeng, have begun to enter the power exchange market.
It is worth noting that according to the official website of the enterprise investigation, on February 15 this year, Xiaopeng Automobile established Shanghai Pengxu Automobile Sales Service Co., Ltd., which is 100% owned by Xiaopeng Automobile Sales Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 5 million yuan, and its business scope includes the sale of new energy vehicle power exchange facilities; the recycling and cascade utilization of waste power batteries of new energy vehicles.
This also means that after Weilai Automobile, Xiaopeng will become the second new car-making force to layout and change electricity.
However, car companies to do power exchange, is still based on their models, although Weilai, Geely and others have announced that their power exchange technology is open to the entire industry, but the reality is that few other car companies choose different car companies to change the power station.
After all, the current battery is still the core competitiveness of car companies in the new energy vehicle market, and power replacement is the need for the unification of battery standards and technologies, and car companies cannot do this for the time being.
Therefore, although weilai has begun to take shape in the development of power exchange, this open road is not smooth for car companies.
02
Tripartite, win-win cooperation
Compared with car companies going their own way, third-party operators may have more advantages in the promotion of the power exchange model.
But in the same way, third-party operators are also facing problems such as large upfront input costs and inconsistent battery technology standards.
Aodong New Energy is the earliest independent third-party enterprise in China to carry out power exchange services.
Up to now, Aodong New Energy has invested in the construction of more than 600 replacement power stations nationwide, and has been stationed in nearly 30 cities, and has cooperated with 14 mainstream OEMs such as BAIC, FAW, SAIC, GAC, Dongfeng, Changan, Dongfeng Nissan Venucia, and Hezhong to develop a total of nearly 30 power replacement models, with a total of more than 50,000 service vehicles.
At present, Aodong's substation is mainly for the B-end, and the models that cooperate with car companies are mainly operating vehicles.
At the same time, in the cooperation with 14 OEMs, Huang Chunhua, general manager of Aodong New Energy Brand and Public Affairs Center and general manager of East China Region, said frankly that due to the different sizes of batteries in each company and the different BMS communication protocols, there are differences in the specifications of battery packs in cooperation with various companies.
However, Huang Chunhua also said that in view of the problem of non-uniform power battery standards, Aodong mainly adopts a multi-brand model sharing strategy in the strategy at this stage, that is, in the daily operation of a city's replacement power station, it can share compatible 3-5 models, which can include the main models in the basic operating vehicles.
In 2021, Aodong announced its latest strategic goal: in 2025, 10,000 substations will be built nationwide, providing power replacement services for 10 million new energy vehicles.
In addition to Aodong, at present, traditional energy suppliers such as Sinopec and PetroChina are not far behind in the new energy era, and actively layout energy replenishment networks such as power stations.
However, compared with other operation service providers that directly build their own substations, the strategy of PetroChina and Sinopec is not the same, they mainly operate the substations by jointly establishing substations with Aodong and Weilai.
In 2021, Sinopec proposed to build a target of 5,000 charging and replacing power stations, so as to officially enter the power exchange service. By December last year, Sinopec had cooperated with Weilai, Aodong, Geely and other companies to build 65 substations, and at the same time strengthen research and development to jointly promote the landing of general-purpose substations.
Compared with car companies, third-party power exchange service operators are more about pursuing win-win cooperation, such as Sinopec, PetroChina and other enterprises, which themselves have the advantage of occupying more land resources, and it is only a matter of time before they catch up with the gap in the number of power stations.
However, high investment, long payback period, battery technology standards, etc., are also the main problems faced by third-party operation service providers.
"The substation is indeed an asset-heavy project." Huang Chunhua said to the heart of the car, "This is indeed a lot of pressure for a private enterprise like ours."
As we all know in the industry, the upfront cost of the substation is relatively high, and it is more difficult to truly achieve profitability.
It is understood that in terms of the size of the replacement power station, battery service, the entire power exchange service capacity and power demand, the construction cost of a new power station of Aodong New Energy is about 5 million to 8 million.
Then, for power exchange enterprises, if you want to achieve breakeven, a city should adapt the power exchange network and the proportion of active vehicles, a substation can serve 150-250 vehicles a day, and the number of power exchanges 1-2 times a day can basically achieve breakeven in 3-4 years.
Of course, even power exchange companies like Aodong have only achieved breakeven in some cities, such as Xiamen, Guangzhou, Kunming, etc., while Shanghai and Sanya, which have better growth potential, are still in a stage of efficient development.
The number of power replacement models is limited, and the frequency of C-end consumers is not high, only relying on the B-end replacement, the power exchange enterprise wants to amortize the upfront cost input, the cycle is relatively long, and the users of the B-end market are more sensitive to the cost of power replacement.
The person in charge of T3 travel said that the current economy of power exchange is indeed not as good as charging, but the future may exceed the critical point, which is mainly based on the development of the market, if there are more and more trams in the future, the cost of power exchange will accelerate.
03
Ningde era entry, new variables in the power exchange market?
"Swap out a blue sky, Ning Wang enters, the trend is inevitable." This is the evaluation given by industry insiders on the Ningde era into the power exchange market.
In January this year, CATL released EVOGO, a power exchange service brand, which solves the three major pain points of consumer mileage anxiety, energy replenishment anxiety and purchase cost through the combination of "power exchange block, quick change station and APP", covering the passenger car market from A00 to C level.
Evogo substation can achieve compatibility with different brands of batteries in standard technology, provided that the standard of chocolate exchange block is adopted, and the chocolate exchange block of the Ningde era has three major advantages:
Small and high energy: it adopts the latest CTP technology of the Ningde era, with a weight energy density of more than 160Wh/kg and a volume energy density of more than 325Wh/L, a single block can provide an endurance of about 200 kilometers, and is suitable for most models developed by pure electric platforms.
Free combination: it can be one, two, or three pieces, according to the needs of the choice, flexible matching the needs of different mileage.
Minimalist design: For the first time, wireless BMS technology is used, and only the high-voltage positive and negative interfaces are available on the outside of the exchange block, which greatly improves the reliability of the plugged and unplugged parts.
Based on this combined power exchange overall solution, NINGDE power exchange service brand EVOGO has the following three characteristics:
"One electric vehicle". Based on the development principle of universal adaptation, EVOGO's chocolate changers are suitable for passenger cars from Class A00 to Class B and Class C as well as logistics vehicles.
The substation can be adapted to various models using chocolate swap blocks, realizing the freedom of choice of swap models.
"Rent electricity on demand". The user is free to choose the number of replacement blocks to rent. If you are commuting around the city on a daily basis, simply rent an electric block.
If you want to travel for a long time, you can choose two or three power blocks, and then change back to one block after returning to the city, and truly increase or decrease, rent electricity on demand, and realize the freedom of electricity.
"Rechargeable and exchangeable". The power exchange solution provided by EVOGO, together with the existing home charge and fast charge, constitutes a full-scenario energy replenishment method, bringing the freedom of power replenishment.
As an industry leader in the field of power batteries, the relevant person in charge of CATL told the heart of the car: "The power battery is the key to the separation of battery asset management companies and vehicle electricity values, which is where the product and technical advantages of CATL era lie, and it is also the source of confidence for its commitment to the new business model of power exchange."
For the entry of the Ningde era, an industry insider commented: "The power exchange system is the key link between the production end of the power battery and the recycling end of the Ningde era. Cataline Era will form a closed loop of business, which includes research and development, production, use, recycling, and ultimately full life cycle management."
He said that on the one hand, as the boss of the power battery industry, ningde times can be conducive to the unification of power battery specifications based on cooperation with car companies.
On the other hand, catheter era entered the power exchange market, through the active promotion of chocolate modules, can compete benignly with the industry on a track, and promote the development of the entire industry.
Most importantly, the Catalonia era also represents an industrial capital, and the entry of industrial capital can attract more government funds or diversified capital to join the power exchange industry.
Compared with technical standards, costs and other problems, the layout of the Ningde era may come from whether the car companies will compromise and whether the future power exchange mode can go through.
In this regard, CATL said that the key to whether the power exchange model can go through, in terms of scale, the future C-end market will definitely be the main battlefield for power exchange, which requires industry colleagues to further improve the power exchange network and reduce the cost of power exchange.
04
The future of power exchange
From the current development point of view, the urgency of C-end power exchange is not high, and only in the case of vehicle-to-electricity separation, large-scale C-end power exchange is likely to be successful.
That is to say, in the future, users buy pure electric vehicles, which will not include batteries, and batteries only need to be leased.
For the C-end power exchange, on the one hand, it solves the user's own car purchase cost and the problem of electricity anxiety, on the other hand, from the use of battery residual value, the vehicle-to-electricity separation mode can help the battery to be better recycled.
Huang Chunhua of Aodong New Energy said that the C-end power exchange emphasizes the operation service of the battery plus the energy service of the power exchange, and "rechargeable, replaceable and upgradable" is the main model for C-end users at present, allowing users to replace the battery upgrade without worrying about the battery attenuation problem.
After the battery has been used in a private car for several years, it can also be used on the B-end. After a while, you can go to the residual value market to do energy storage or disassembly and disassembly of parts.
Of course, before entering the C-end replacement market, the unification of battery technology standards has become a roadblock.
The relevant person in charge of T3 travel said that the unification of battery technology standards is the trend of the times, and it is also conducive to reducing costs, so it is necessary for a company with the right to speak like Ningde to start from the upstream to do this.
He also said: "But not all models will be unified, car companies may retain a part of the personalization, and unification does not mean that all models have a battery, there is no choice, he should be based on the different needs of enterprises, classified and launched a number of programs, relatively narrow the scope."
Therefore, the future-oriented C-end market will gradually unify battery technology standards, especially for cost-sensitive low- and medium-end models.
Aodong said that the power exchange service for the C-end will be piloted in some cities with some OEMs in the second half of this year.
However, some people in the industry believe that the value of C-terminal power exchange is actually not significant.
On the one hand, the problem of power replacement needs to be compromised with the model structure, and the weight of the model will definitely be heavier than that of the car that does not change the power, and the material will be more.
On the other hand, the number of power changes affects the life of the battery.
At present, the mainstream power exchange in the industry is to use the chassis to replace the power, that is, the battery pack is removed from the bottom of the vehicle for power replacement.
In terms of specific ways of replacement, one is a bolt-type power exchange, and the other is called snap-in power exchange, the former is the power exchange method of Weilai, and the latter is the power exchange method adopted by Aodong.
According to the "Safety Requirements for Electric Vehicle Power Replacement", the minimum number of power exchanges for snap-in type is 5000 times and the minimum number of bolt type power exchanges is 1500 times.
Among them, the snap-on power exchange method adopted by Aodong has reached the factory standard of 12000 times of power exchange, while the relative Weilai is the bolt type used, and its minimum power exchange life is 1500 times.
That is to say, after the frequency of power exchanges exceeds 1500 times, the probability of equipment wear caused by the power exchange of WEIlai models is gradually increasing.
The current power exchange model is developing hot in China, but the early power exchange market can be described as a snubbed, and even Tesla has chosen to give up the power exchange service.
In 2015, Tesla trial-run the first substation near the California supercharge station, and the cost of a single replacement service was $60-80, and the owner of the battery had to replace the original battery on schedule.
In contrast, the supercharger next to the substation can charge half of the Model S in 20 minutes for 0 yuan.
At that time, Musk said: "The use of the battery exchange service is surprisingly low, and most car owners are still willing to choose a more widely distributed supercharger station, where they can drink coffee and rest while charging."
Until March last year, there were data showing that Tesla (Shanghai) Co., Ltd., the operating entity of Tesla China, underwent industrial and commercial changes, and the scope of business was added to "motor vehicle repair and maintenance; motor vehicle charging sales; sales of new energy vehicle replacement facilities; electric vehicle charging infrastructure operations; centralized fast charging stations".
This means that Tesla is already eligible to launch optional packages for power exchange services for its own models in the Chinese market, or to sell new energy vehicle replacement facilities to other third-party institutions.
However, the relevant person in charge of Tesla clearly responded: "Tesla will not do power exchange."
What Tesla did not do, but gradually rose in China.
In fact, although up to now, a considerable number of people believe that the power exchange is actually still a transitional product in the middle, and even bluntly say that the power exchange will die.
After all, the actual cost of power exchange is still higher than charging, and power exchange is a heavy asset investment, and the cost of the early stage is also very high.
Undoubtedly, on the way to development, power replacement still faces many problems, and how it will develop in the future is still worthy of attention.