Apple's 2022 spring conference has just ended, iPhone SE3 pricing, M1 Ultra splicing chip, iPhone 13 leek green color has triggered a heated discussion, many netizens said that Apple fried cold rice, new products for soup do not change, sit and wait for the next conference to release the VR headset device to the meta-universe.
As we all know, there will be news about Apple's VR headset every year, but Apple has been slow to release any real materials. However, Facebook and ByteDance have taken the lead in entering the game, and some netizens believe that perhaps Cook is holding back a big move.
But the author believes that Apple's delay in releasing the XR headset is true because it is not necessary, after all, the metacosm is still at the preschool education level.
The overall technology development of 015G is insufficient, and XR terminals cannot be lightweight
The predecessor of the metacosm, XR, has been in a steady and slow development after experiencing an industry explosion in the previous few years. It wasn't until Last October that Facebook changed its name to Meta that the metaversic concept was mentioned again. Coupled with the frequent actions of ByteDance last year, first acquiring Pico, and this year will carry out XR research and development cooperation with Qualcomm, meta-universe is regarded as the next Internet outlet.
But at present, the metaverse only has wind, but it is difficult to find a breakthrough. XR headset equipment heavy, screen stutter easy to cause vertigo is difficult to solve the root.
As early as 2019, Japan released a 5G concept film, which depicted the development trajectory of the more ideal metacosmology. The film shows the new life with 5G as the means of connection and XR as the way of display.
XR live, social
This requires the help of 5G network slicing technology and edge computing technology, and some strong computing tasks such as rendering and intelligent perception on the XR terminal are transferred to the edge to be processed, and the XR headset can be extremely light, like myopic glasses. The XR picture is also smoother, and the sense of immersion and experience is stronger.
But the above is the ideal state, in fact, the construction of 5G network currently has the problem of insufficient base station coverage, slicing technology and edge computing technology limitations, XR headset in recent years will not have much change in weight, long-term wear will also be dizzy discomfort.
And multi-person interaction is even more difficult, both need to open up data, but also need a variety of motion capture equipment, metaverse is always in the concept stage, want to develop to the 5G concept film level, at least 10 years.
The 02 yuan universe equipment is expensive and the audience is too small
Before 2021, XR, Internet of Things, artificial intelligence and other technologies in the meta-universe industry chain are mainly used in enterprise work, operation and maintenance, and training, and only a small number of people will use XR for game entertainment, the main reason is expensive.
Therefore, the earliest mobile phone brand HTC, which transferred to XR, has not been optimistic about VR sales in recent years, with a price of four or five thousand or even tens of thousands, and the weight of laptops is similar, and few consumers buy entertainment. Coupled with the limitations of the B-end market, revenue is not proportional to R&D investment, and it is the norm to make ends meet, and even 70% of VR hardware startups have directly closed down.
HTC VR devices
At that time, the Pico terminal still belonged to the dessert level, and the price ranged from 1000-3000 yuan, but the immersion and picture quality were relatively poor, which dissuaded many meta-universe C-end players. Companies like Meat and ByteDance are now working hard, presumably looking at the potential of C-end games and the social market.
But the XR headset weight and price problem is not solved, the metacosm in the C-end market can not stimulate any big splash, think about even the Facebook gene Ofat is also facing the challenge of market value decline, Apple is indeed too early to enter the game.
The author believes that perhaps Apple has enough time to develop lightweight XR products, which can be linked with the iPhone 15 and 16 dreams to bring consumers a new experience, but I believe that the price is only high.
03 Can not see the development prospects, the industry or will disappear
In the past few years, the XR industry has policy support, and the concept of meta-universe has been hot in the past two years, but the development prospects of an industry not only depend on the market environment and policy environment, but also on its significance to social development. For now, XR is not necessary for human and social development, does not see application prospects, and cannot replace mobile phones as the next generation of new smart terminals.
The only use is probably to wait until the earth is destroyed, and humanity can put on the most advanced XR equipment, open the brain-computer interface, and start over in another identity in the metaverse world built by XR and blockchain like the number one player. Remember, the first thing you can do is real estate first
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