Source: Time Weekly Author: Liang Chunfu
At the beginning of 2023, the general chatbot ChatGPT is hot; On the contrary, VR (virtual reality), which has become popular again through the rise of the metaverse in recent years, is in trouble.
On February 16, the news about the "big layoffs of PICO, a VR hardware company under ByteDance", ranked first on the hot list of workplace social platforms. In this regard, relevant people of PICO told the Times reporter that the "big layoff" information is not true, and PICO has indeed carried out a round of organizational optimization recently, but the overall proportion is not high.
VR is considered to be the next generation of computing platforms after computers and smartphones, which experienced the crazy entry of major technology giants and investment institutions in 2015, and once again boosted confidence in 2019 due to the commercial use of 5G, and the popularity of the metaverse in recent years once brightened the prospects of the industry. Whether it is overseas technology giants Microsoft, Meta, Rolex, or domestic ByteDance, Tencent, Kuaishou, they do not hesitate to bet on the development of the meta-universe and form a VR team. However, after the wind, the Western Hemisphere, which set off the wave of VR, began to "avalanche", and Meta and Microsoft, which are at the forefront of the meta-universe, recently began to shrink the meta-universe business and lay off employees on a large scale.
It can be seen that no one of the technology giants who bet tens of billions of dollars on the journey of the meta-universe is smooth sailing. With the rise of the meta-universe VR industry, this time was photographed dead on the beach?
Xie Hao, founder and CEO of Yuanyi Changxiang, told reporters that the market space for VR devices in the future is still very large, and at present, VR devices account for a small proportion of the entire screen market, and there is still room for growth. "After waves of heat, when the remaining VR players settle down, it is the stage where the industry really moves forward." Xie Hao said.
Overseas market share straight to Meta?
Recently, the news of PICO's layoffs has dominated the list for several days. Some employees certified as ByteDance said that PICO compensation is still more conscientious, gave N+1, and gave a year-end bonus, the current hardware research and development department changes are small, content and operation layoffs more. There are also employees who claim to be laid off by PICO, who said that the percentage of layoffs in PICO this time is 30%, of which the content department has the highest proportion of layoffs.
The above-mentioned PCIO related person explained to reporters that the actual proportion is not as high as rumored, and this adjustment only involves part of the business, which is a normal organizational structure adjustment of the company and will not affect the normal operation of the business.
There are more and more news of layoffs, but some media reports say that PICO's overseas market share has increased by 2 times year-on-year.
Media reports pointed out that according to a survey by international data company IDC, about a year ago, Meta accounted for 90% of the VR headset market. By the third quarter of 2022 (the latest data available), Meta's market share had fallen to around 75%. Over the same period, PICO's market share more than tripled to around 15 percent. None of the other VR headset manufacturers have a market share of more than 3%.
At the same time, IDC data shows that Meta's headset shipments in the third quarter fell 48% year-on-year. ByteDance's PICO is the only VR headset manufacturer with positive growth in shipments.
In response to this report, PICO internal sources told reporters, "The Wall Street Journal did not interview PICO about the (PICO) overseas market in this article, basically based on third-party investigations, and many data were also written with market data, and our side actually did not accept their interview." ”
In September 2022, PICO released two products: PICO 4 and the higher-end PICO 4 Pro. Among them, PICO 4 was officially launched in domestic and foreign markets, but PICO 4 Pro has repeatedly bounced tickets and has not yet been officially listed.
From the release information, Pico 4 is equipped with Qualcomm Snapdragon XR2 processor, screen resolution is "4K+", field of view angle is 105 degrees, battery life reaches 3 hours, and its domestic price is pressed within 3,000 yuan.
The PICO 4 Pro supports eye tracking and face tracking, and the other configurations are basically the same between the two models. A PICO employee told the Times reporter that PICO 4 Pro will be released in April and May this year, priced at about 3,700 yuan.
However, regarding the sales of PICO 4, PICO has not released official data. As of February 16, PICO Taobao's official flagship store sold more than 1,000 products a month. JD.com's official flagship store does not show sales, with more than 20,000 reviews.
Source: Figureworm Creative
PICO products have insufficient computing power, and high-quality content development is a big challenge?
Wu Song (pseudonym), a software designer who has cooperated with PICO, told the Times reporter that PICO's VR equipment computing power is obviously insufficient, which poses a great challenge to service providers responsible for content development.
"From our point of view, it is still difficult to develop some high-quality content and applications on PICO's VR devices. Because VR devices usually use Qualcomm Snapdragon chips, this chip can be used on mobile phones, but the chip loaded on PICO products must not only support a 4K resolution mobile phone screen, but also support the 4K screen of the VR device itself. Wu Song said.
Wu Song believes that the insufficient computing power of VR device chips makes it impossible to do particularly complex ecological content, and there are not many people who can be online at the same time in apps that support multi-person online. "Compared with the previous generation of PICO 3, PICO4 has a better experience and better interactivity, but the computing chip is actually not upgraded."
In response to the problem of insufficient product computing power, PICO insiders explained to reporters: "The chip computing power is insufficient This should not exist, because these VR companies use Qualcomm chips, Apple (VR headset) will not use self-developed chips I don't know, but the other few use (chips) are the same, if the computing power is insufficient, the problem we face must be the same." However, in the current application scenario, the software development challenges caused by insufficient chip computing power have not been found. ”
In Wu Song's view, domestic VR equipment manufacturers will more or less encounter the problem of insufficient chip computing power, "At present, everyone is almost at the level of Snapdragon, and there is no particularly good choice for the time being, and some high-end chips may not be available." ”
"From the perspective of hardware cost alone, domestic VR equipment manufacturers have basically not achieved profitability in C-end consumption scenarios, and high-priced VR products positioned in B-end application scenarios such as education, medical care, and government may have relatively better profits, but it is difficult to open sales." Wu Song added.
A senior executive of a domestic VR equipment manufacturer also holds a similar view, he believes that it is difficult for domestic VR manufacturers that mainly do hardware to achieve profitability. In his opinion, PICO 4 is a good entry-level VR device, and it does a good job of hitting the price of VR products below 3,000 yuan, which is a more acceptable price range for ordinary consumers. The price of HTC's new XR all-in-one machine is nearly 9,000 yuan, and Apple's VR headset this year is as high as $3,000, which may only be paid by VR enthusiasts or loyal fans of the brand.
"At the same time, the user retention of VR equipment is also very critical, which requires that the ecological content of VR equipment is attractive enough, and the novelty of the moment can attract some consumers to buy, but in order to maintain the repurchase rate and wind review, there must be explosive content and applications." The above-mentioned executives believe that games are one of the most effective and direct ways for VR devices to open up the C-end market, and explosive games can ensure user retention, break through the circle, and activate the market.
However, compared to other VR devices, PICO loses out in the most common gaming scenarios in VR. According to December 2022 SteamVR statistics, the top three active devices in this mainstream VR platform are Oculus Quest 2, Valve Index HMD, and Oculus Rift S, which together account for 72% of the share. PICO 4 came in tenth place, with only 0.74% of platform players using the product.
The limelight has been overshadowed by ChatGPT, is the VR industry still popular?
ChatGPT is in the limelight over there, and the leading companies in the VR industry here are all shrinking their business scale and adjusting their organizational structure, and they can't help but ask: How big is the incremental space in the VR industry in the future?
According to CCID consulting data, from 2019 to 2021, the scale of the mainland virtual reality market has continued to grow, from 28.28 billion yuan in 2019 to 58.39 billion yuan in 2021, doubling the market size. CCID Consulting predicts that the scale of the mainland virtual reality market will maintain rapid growth and will exceed the 100 billion yuan mark in 2023.
At the same time, the VR industry has received a series of policy support. The 14th Five-Year Plan outlines "virtual reality and augmented reality" as a key industry in the digital economy, and proposes to drive the reform of production mode, lifestyle and governance mode with digital transformation as a whole, give birth to new industries, new formats and new models, and strengthen new engines of economic development.
At the end of 2022, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other five departments issued the Action Plan for the Integrated Development of Virtual Reality and Industry Applications (2022-2026), which proposed that by 2026, the overall scale of the mainland virtual reality industry will exceed 350 billion yuan, the sales of virtual reality terminals will exceed 25 million units, and 100 backbone enterprises with strong innovation capabilities and industry influence will be cultivated. And deploy safeguard measures in many aspects such as deepening technology research and development, carrying out application pilots, building industrial clusters, and strengthening talent support.
Source: Figureworm Creative
But there's no denying that some gamers' enthusiasm for VR devices is waning. On the second-hand platform Xianyu, many consumers resell the VR equipment in their hands, citing poor "halo 3D" experience, stuttering screens, and no time to play. According to Bloomberg, in January this year, Sony halved the shipment forecast for PS VR2 this quarter to about 1 million units, because of the sluggish performance of pre-orders.
In Xie Hao's view, after the maturity of AIGC technology, it has made content production easier and cheaper. At the same time, it is also possible to embed ChatGPT in VR scenes in the future to create some new application forms. "From the perspective of our industry, everyone thinks that it is a good thing for ChatGDP to move forward now."