Author 丨 Cui Liwen
Responsible editor 丨 Du Yuxin
Editor 丨Zhu Jinbin
At the beginning of the month, several new forces that have achieved large-scale delivery of cars have released the february delivery report card, and in terms of results, it is not satisfactory. Supply chain shortages, production line transformations, including the Spring Festival holiday, have become the so-called reasons in their respective mouths.
Just a few hours ago, the Association officially released the relevant data for February, and the wholesale sales of new energy reached 317,000 units, an increase of 189.1% year-on-year and a decrease of 24.1% month-on-month. Retail sales of new energy passenger cars reached 272,000 units in February, up 180.5% y/y and down 22.6% month-on-month.
As far as the trend of the broader market is concerned, it is in line with the basic laws. Limited by a variety of factors, it is not surprising that February, as the "off-season" recognized by most car companies, has seen a certain range of month-on-month declines.
But even in such a big environment, Tesla still proved with practical actions that as an American new energy vehicle company, what is "only one heart to sell cars, the Spring Festival does not close."
In terms of specific figures, Tesla in China sold a total of 56,515 new cars in February, compared with 59,845 in January, showing only a small month-on-month decline. Among them, a total of 33,315 new cars were exported and 23,200 new domestic retail cars were sold.
Such a result also confirms that Musk has mentioned more than once that before Tesla's Berlin factory in Germany has not been officially put into operation, the Shanghai factory still maintains the practice of giving priority to ensuring the supply of overseas markets in the first half of each quarter and making efforts to deliver in China in the second half.
After opening the official website of Tesla China, it can be found that the current pick-up cycle of domestic Model 3 and Model Y takes 3-4 months. Obviously, the relationship between supply and demand has reached a stage of extreme imbalance.
As for this in-progress March, as Tesla's strategic focus begins to adjust, prioritizing delivery in the domestic market, it can't help but boldly predict its sales, which is very likely to break through the 70,000-vehicle mark. In other words, the Model 3 and Model Y may hit the milestone of 35,000 units sold per month per single model.
If it can really be completed, the two will undoubtedly sound the alarm bell again for the entire traditional fuel vehicle plate: when the tide of electrification comes, there is no one who cannot be replaced.
More importantly, not long ago, according to the exclusive source of the German media Tagesspiegel, Tesla Giga Berlin factory, not surprisingly, planned to hold a groundbreaking ceremony on March 22, local time.
Musk will fly to Germany in person, possibly along with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. The degree of attention can be seen. At the event site, 30 German-made Model Ys are expected to be delivered to the first users.
Soon, over time, the above news received a further hammer.
On the evening of March 4, Beijing time, the German State Department of Environment brandenburg issued a press release announcing that Tesla's Berlin factory had received a final approval notice from the German Environment Office and would be allowed to carry out production work.
But there are quite a few conditions attached to this approval.
The 537-page approval notice, Tesla needs to fully accept the conditions in the notice before production can start, the press release said. In addition, Tesla's battery factory is expected to be conditionally licensed for several months, and the public can object to Tesla's approval within the next month.
For the breakthrough and obstacles to approval, Dietmar Woidke, the governor of the State of Brandenburg, said: "The licensing process is a difficult task for us. According to the plan, the annual output of the plant may be as high as 500,000 vehicles, which is expected to create as many as 7,000 jobs for the local area.
At this point, although there are still certain variables, but in terms of the overall general direction, local users in Europe are no longer far away from the moment when they get the Model Y made in Germany. With the official commissioning of the Berlin factory, the export pressure borne by Tesla's Shanghai factory will inevitably be further reduced. After that, the greater attention will shift to the supply of China's end market.
After all, as early as last year's shareholder meeting, Musk had sworn that "by 2030, Tesla will achieve annual sales of 20 million vehicles." At present, Tesla's compound annual growth rate has reached 71%, which is a very frightening growth rate in all car companies. ”
Next, as long as the chip shortage problem can be alleviated as soon as possible, Tesla will have no problem maintaining the existing growth rate, at least for a longer period of time to maintain more than 50% growth.
In other words, based on the global delivery of about 940,000 vehicles in 2021, Tesla's sales target for 2022 is set at 1.5 million vehicles.
If you want to complete it, how much incremental the Chinese market can provide will be decisive.