Continued: If the scale of the global new energy vehicle scale of 10 million vehicles in 2022 is predicted, how large does China's new energy vehicle market need to be? The answer is more than 5.2 million vehicles – and if this is achieved, it will ensure that the world's new energy vehicles cross the 10 million mark. So, is the Chinese market OK?
(Click to review: China's new energy vehicles 2022 panorama report [1])
Third, China's new energy vehicle market "guarantee five for six"
For the sales of New Energy Vehicles in China in 2022, domestic forecasts have been made, including the China Automobile Association, the Association of Automobile Manufacturers, and the Research and Reporting Agencies of Securities Companies, but the data differences of various calibers are relatively large, with the largest gap of up to 1 million vehicles.
1. How much can the scale of China's new energy vehicles reach in 2022?
China's new energy vehicle sales forecast is 5 million units, according to its forecast of a total of 27.5 million units for the whole year, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles this year is about 18%.
The predictions given by the multiplication association are much more radical. Earlier, the Association expected sales of new energy passenger vehicles to be 4.8 million units in 2022, but by the beginning of this year, it has been raised to 5.5 million new energy passenger cars, which will make the penetration rate of new energy passenger cars reach 25%. And the association expects that new energy vehicles are expected to exceed 6 million vehicles, with a penetration rate of about 22%.
In addition, some institutions have also made corresponding predictions, which are roughly concentrated in about 5.2 million to 5.5 million vehicles.
The relatively detailed estimate is that soochow Securities Research Institute has given about 5.7 million new energy passenger cars, of which 4.48 million are pure electric models and 1.23 million are plug-in hybrids. The penetration rate of the entire new energy passenger car is about 23%, while the penetration rate of pure electric vehicles can be 18%. In addition, they predict that in 2022, if China's new energy vehicles contain exports, they can achieve about 6 million units, an increase of 70% year-on-year.
So if we predict China's new energy vehicle sales in 2022 according to the middle of the forecast of 5 million and 6 million vehicles, that is, 5.5 million units, we can split it to see the reality of this goal.
First of all, we need to exclude commercial new energy vehicle sales from the scale of 5.5 million units, which is an easy value to measure. In 2021, the sales volume of commercial new energy vehicles was 186,000 units, an increase of 54% year-on-year, of which 98% were pure electric vehicles. For the total sales of commercial vehicles in 2022, caucus of China Automobile Manufacturers forecasts that it will be about 4.5 million units, down 6% year-on-year. Combined with the 66% year-on-year growth rate of commercial new energy vehicles in January this year, we can roughly predict according to the growth rate of 50%, and the total number is about 280,000 to 300,000 vehicles.
In other words, in 2022, the median number of new energy passenger car scale in China may be about 5.2 million. That's an increase of about 1.87 million units from 3.334 million units last year, up 56 percent year-over-year.
2, A-class new energy vehicles ushered in the outbreak
Next, we can compare the target of major domestic new energy vehicle companies to see whether the increase of 1.87 million vehicles can be achieved.
It is predicted that a core main line of the new energy vehicle market in 2022 is that the entire 100,000-200,000 yuan A-class car market may usher in explosive growth. According to estimates, in the current new energy vehicle market, the sales of pure electric vehicles in the A-class car segment are only 940,000 units, while the sales of pure electric vehicles in the B-class car segment are as high as 1 million, and the lowest-end A00 car is also 890,000 pure electric vehicles. At the same time, the PHEV model sold 310,000 units in the A-class car market, and the B-class car segment was 230,000 units.
The above data means that the penetration rate of A-class pure electric vehicles is only 5%, and the entire new energy A-class vehicles are only about 8%, which is a big gap with 20% and 16% of B-class vehicles. However, in the entire automobile consumer market, the sales volume of the A-class car segment can reach 55%, and in the market such as SUVs, it is as high as 63%.
Therefore, a calculation made by soochow Securities Research Institute is that in 2022, the A-class vehicle segment in the entire new energy vehicle market will reach 1.7 million to 1.9 million, an increase of 800,000 to 900,000 units compared with last year. The main increase comes from the A-class plug-in hybrid, which is expected to grow from 310,000 last year to 810,000.
Obviously, a large part of this increase comes from BYD's DM-i new car launch. Last year, BYD has released an A-class SUV aimed at the Haval H6 and CS75PLUS, song Pro DM-i, compared with the annual sales scale of other competitors, this car is likely to bring 200,000 increments. At the same time, there is a similar destroyer 05 to the Qin PLUS DM-i, referring to the current scale of 190,000 Qin PLUS models, even if the destroyer 05 is only half of its volume, it is enough to provide 100,000 vehicles.
In addition, Changan, Great Wall, Geely and other independent brands will also have corresponding plug-in hybrid models put in the A-class car market, which is expected to boost sales in the entire PHEV market. It can be said that the sales target of 500,000 plug-in hybrid A-class cars is not too difficult.
As for the pure electric vehicle products of the A-class segment, it can be seen that BYD has released the meta PLUS series, the Great Wall Euler will have new products such as ballet cats and lightning cats, SAIC passenger cars have a series of new products, plus the Volkswagen ID.3 has not yet been released, and the increase of the entire A-class electric vehicle can be expected. Other joint venture car companies are also accelerating the launch of A-class electric vehicles, including Honda's e:N series of "one fish, two eats", Toyota will release and BYD cooperation with BYD at the end of the year to build an A-class sedan, which is considered to be all parties in the game.
Basically conservative judgment, the increase in A-class pure electric vehicles in 2022 is at least 300,000 units, the target sales should be more than 400,000 vehicles - the yuan PLUS reaches 100,000 vehicles, volkswagen ID.4 and ID.3 to achieve 100,000 sales, which completes the bulk, the rest of the car companies to complete a total of more than 200,000 should be easier.
3, B-class new energy vehicles are still thriving
On the other hand, car companies will launch a comprehensive competition in the 200,000 yuan price point and B-class car market. At present, the B-segment car market is mainly occupied by Accord, Camry, Passat and Magotan, and the entire market share is about 2.6 million vehicles, of which fuel vehicles account for at least 80%.
Starting from 2022, the new forces will first increase the investment of B-class cars - the price of 200,000 yuan is the right price to achieve revenue, technology allocation, and consumer trends - such as WM M7, Zero Run C01, Nezha S, etc., as well as Weilai's most important ET5, etc., and BYD Han DM-i. In terms of total, these sedan products can bring enough increments to the B-class segment, and it is likely to quickly dissolve the market share of the original B-class sedan.
If you count the B-class SUV market, which is fast enough to electrify itself - especially the Tesla Model Y will assume the role of volume this year, perhaps a single model can exceed 300,000 units, and the new car launch of Ford, Cadillac, Audi and other brands are all in this segment - which makes the entire B-class new energy vehicle sales also have the possibility of doubling, from 1 million in 2021 to 1.9 million.
4. Summary of this section
In other words, just in the two segments of A-class and B-class markets, domestic new energy vehicles are conservatively estimated to be able to obtain an incremental scale of 1.5 million vehicles. In other markets such as A0 and A00, it will maintain a growth rate of at least about 200,000 vehicles, and the emerging medium and large electric MPV models also have a certain sales space.
Overall, China's new energy vehicle market in 2022 conservatively estimates that 5 million vehicles is a high probability event, and once it exceeds 5.5 million, then the global new energy vehicles will inevitably reach the scale of tens of millions. As for the most optimistic estimate of 6 million units, we believe that it is achievable in terms of production, that is, the export side supports the scale of about 500,000 vehicles - on the one hand, Tesla's exports, on the other hand, we cannot ignore the export of SAIC passenger cars in new energy vehicles.
Fourth, dismantle China's new energy vehicle sales in 2022
After having a general concept of China's new energy vehicles this year, we can disassemble the sales trend of China's new energy vehicle market in 2022, so as to specifically judge the sales range of domestic new energy vehicles this year.
1. BYD sales forecast
In 2021, the largest car company in China's new energy vehicle sales is BYD, with its overall sales of new energy vehicles being 584,000 units, of which 320,000 are pure electric vehicles and about 274,000 DM-i models. It is followed by SAIC-GM-Wuling, and Hongguang MINIEV is the biggest contributor to its new energy vehicle sales, selling nearly 400,000 vehicles, while baojun brand new energy vehicles are about 29,500 units. This was followed by Tesla, which had the highest brand recognition, relying on the Model 3 and Model Y to achieve annual sales of 320,000 vehicles.
The gap in sales of the new energy vehicle companies behind is obvious, basically 100,000 vehicles, and a little more are great wall Euler and GAC Aean, both of which are 130,000 vehicles. The three new forces of Wei Xiaoli are basically next to the scale of 100,000 vehicles, and the two joint venture car companies of the Volkswagen brand have barely reached 130,000 vehicles.
For 2022, the biggest attraction of the entire market is how much BYD's new energy vehicles can sell.
At present, BYD said that the undelivered new energy vehicle orders in hand are about 200,000 units, which means that BYD's annual sales of 1 million vehicles this year are almost certain. The sales target mentioned by BYD at the investor conference before is 1.1 million to 1.2 million new energy vehicles in 2022, an increase of 100%.
Some investors are more optimistic about BYD's sales, believing that its new energy vehicle sales may reach about 1.5 million. The calculation logic is that BYD once proposed to complete the goal of 3 million new energy vehicles in 2022, and by the end of 2021, it has accumulated 1.5 million vehicles, so it may hit the target of 1.5 million vehicles this year.
However, we think that BYD's target of 1.5 million new energy vehicles is still too optimistic. At present, it seems that BYD's production capacity is mainly limited by the supply of batteries, because its batteries are completely self-supplied, so it cannot only manage factory capacity like other car companies. Some investors estimate that BYD's self-supplied battery production capacity in 2022 is about 50GWh, which is double that of 25GWh in 2021, so the model sales are naturally doubled, or return to the initial forecast of about 1.2 million vehicles.
Therefore, if you consider that BYD still has some fuel vehicles, then BYD's total annual sales in 2022 may be about 1.3 million to 1.4 million, of which new energy vehicles will account for about 90%.
From the product point of view, BYD's Qin PLUS and destroyer 05 can be regarded as a combination, and the sales forecast should be around 300,000 vehicles. Song Pro DM-i as a new product aimed at the mainstream segment of compact SUV, its goal is to target the top three autonomous SUV, only in the minimum expectation is 200,000 vehicles, even if it affects the slightly higher positioning Song PLUS DM-i, the total of the two models should also be 350,000 vehicles. Again is the Han series, Han EV bicycles have reached 87,000 units, and with the addition of Han DM-i, referring to the entire B-class car market bicycle sales, the whole series of 200,000 units is a touchable target.
Others such as Tang, Dolphin, Yuan PLUS, etc., as well as Denza's new cars, if the production capacity is smooth, there is no problem in providing sales support of 250,000 units. And this year, BYD's many new cars, including the landing ship of Ocean Network, the new pure electric sedan and MPV model of the model 3, will provide a solid foundation for BYD's sales target of 1.2 million vehicles.
2. Wuling and Tesla sales forecasts
Then there is the sales forecast of saic and GM-Wuling's new energy vehicles, basically the development of A00-class electric vehicles has reached a bottleneck, so the increment is limited.
At present, the annual sales scale of Hongguang MINIEV is 400,000 vehicles, and the entry threshold of the entire market is relatively low, and there are now a large number of imitators entering the 40,000 yuan electric microcar market, which is bound to impact the share of Hongguang MINIEV. The best result is that SAIC-GM-Wuling strengthens the moat of its products by continuously upgrading its models, and then maintains a total of 400,000 units in the pure electric micro-car market. Further up to the 60,000-80,000 yuan market, if Wuling / Baojun can launch products that can compete with Nezha V and Zero Run T03, then the market may still have about 100,000 vehicles, but at present, SAIC-GM-Wuling has no better products to the market.
This year, SAIC-GM-Wuling will mainly launch an enlarged version of the Hongguang MINIEV, known as "MINIEV GB", which can be regarded as an upgrade of MINIEV and keep the micro-electric vehicle market below 50,000 yuan. At the same time, in the high-end market, it will provide a sufficiently entertaining MINIEV convertible version to increase some brand recognition, but the overall sales will not be a surprise.
For Tesla, the 2022 increment may be equally optimistic. At present, Tesla's China factory is completely saturated, with an annual production capacity of about 550,000 vehicles, so Tesla has also begun to accelerate the construction of the second phase of the Shanghai factory. Considering that Tesla's global production capacity plan is 1.5 million vehicles, this target is 50% higher than last year, then the corresponding Chinese market is almost 480,000 vehicles.
Interestingly, tesla's Shanghai factory previously needed to contribute 200,000 units of production capacity for export to Europe, and now with the Berlin plant starting to operate in the first quarter, the production capacity on the Chinese side is just vacant. Compared with the vacated production capacity, Tesla's sales in China can indeed be about 500,000 vehicles.
3. Sales forecast of new power car companies
Looking at the side of the new forces of Wei Xiaoli, last year the three were all 90,000 or so sales scale, and by 2022, because new cars will be launched, they have given quite aggressive target guidance.
The goal given by Nio is about doubling, that is, 180,000 vehicles. Some research institutions have given a forecast of about 160,000 vehicles, and the overall deviation is not large. This is mainly to take into account that although NIO has two new cars in ET7 and ET5 in 2022, and will also release ES7, the entire volume of NIO needs to wait until the third quarter of the second half of the year. Before the launch of new cars, models such as ES6/ES8 will slow down the delivery speed due to increased market competition and model updates.
In terms of Xiaopeng, the expectations given by each company are between 200,000 and 300,000 vehicles. This is mainly due to the fact that the P7 will undergo a revamp, so that it will enter the scale of 100,000 units of bicycles; the P5 for the entry-level market is expected to be around 80,000 units in the whole year because the delay in delivery will affect some sales. In fact, this year, Xiaopeng will put more energy on the flagship product of the G9, but considering that it is also the fourth quarter that there is a possibility of delivery, it can reach 20,000 or 30,000 vehicles that have completed the task.
Ideal Car is currently a single model combat, sales efficiency is very high, has completed the scale of 100,000 bicycles. The core of the ideal in 2022 is to release the new X01 model, then the ideal will change from a single-line operation to a two-line operation, and the two products are expected to be more prominent in differentiation, with the layout to the market of 300,000 yuan and 400,000 yuan. This does not say that the product sales will be doubled, even according to the growth rate of 60%-80%, it is 160,000-180,000 vehicles, which is consistent with Weilai.
The remaining second-tier new forces, including United Automobile (Nezha), Weima, Zero Run, etc., the biggest probability of achieving a sales breakthrough should be zero run. Zero-run this car company is now showing strong competitiveness in the mid-range market, C11 is now a car is difficult to find, order delivery is in three months, and this year will also be listed C01 this car, while the zero-run T03 segment has been opened, the company from last year's 45,000 vehicles to 100,000 vehicles is very likely.
4. Gac, Great Wall and SAIC are forecast
The new energy vehicles on the side of traditional independent brands also came to a critical point in 2022, with Great Wall Motors, GAC Aegean and SAIC Passenger Cars being the first to run over 100,000 vehicles, while Geely Automobile, Changan Automobile, Chery and other car companies "got up early and rushed to catch a late set".
On the side of GAC Ean, the overall target of GAC Group is to increase by 15% year-on-year, about 2.43 million units, which means that the overall sales volume increased by 300,000 vehicles. Considering that GAC Toyota and GAC Honda's target plan has reached 400,000 unit increments, the growth pressure of the remaining brands may not be so great. And GAC Aeon has always lacked explosive models, 2022 seems to be a small year of products, coupled with GAC Aeon's factory production capacity from 100,000 to 200,000 vehicles, then keeping pace with the general trend, should be gac Aeon's goal. In this way, it is more appropriate for GAC Aean to achieve about 180,000-200,000 vehicles.
Due to the impact of the black cat and white cat of the discontinued Euler, Great Wall Motor is expected to reduce the production of new energy vehicles by about 80,000 vehicles. But euler cats may be able to double sales — from 51,000 last year to 100,000. At the same time, as a brand-up product, this year Euler will launch products such as ballet cats and lightning cats, facing the market of 150,000-250,000 yuan, these products may not be so fast, but it is expected that there will be a scale of 30,000 vehicles.
At the same time, there is also a WEY brand under the Great Wall to promote DHT models, with long-endurance PHEV as the biggest selling point, may be able to make the Great Wall in the PHEV market to get a lot of growth, to WEY's goal, the annual 30,000 vehicles should be needed to do.
SAIC motor passenger cars include Roewe, Feifan and MG, and at present, Roewe new energy vehicles can reach a scale of 95,000 units, while the independent Feifan is about 15,000 vehicles, which accounts for a very high share in the Shanghai area, but MG is only four figures. The reason for optimism about SAIC passenger cars on the one hand is that Roewe PHEV models will maintain their existing share, on the other hand, new brands under SAIC passenger cars, such as Zhiji and Feifan, will have new cars launched to drive sales. Even MG will have a global electric car launch, which may greatly increase MG's share of the new energy vehicle market. Therefore, it is actually very conservative to give SAIC passenger cars a 40% growth rate in the new energy market.
5. Sales forecast of Geely, Chery and Changan New Energy
In fact, there is an extreme desire for the new energy market is the brother of its own brand - Geely Automobile. As the self-owned brand car company with the highest sales volume in China, geely automobile has lagged behind BYD, Great Wall Motor, and even Changan Automobile in terms of influence and capital market value in recent years, mainly because Geely has performed poorly in the new energy market.
As a car company that released the "Blue Geely Action Plan" seven years ago, Geely only sold 80,000 new energy vehicles in 2021, which is the result of its multi-brand. Therefore, in 2022, Geely Automobile is bound to hope to catch up quickly, achieve breakthroughs in scale and quantity as much as possible, and reach the third camp of the new energy vehicle industry.
At present, it seems that the core sales support of Geely Automobile in terms of new energy will be the Extreme Kr brand, and it is expected that Extreme Kr 001 will bring about 70,000 vehicles in the new year, and extreme KrYPV may be able to bring support of 10,000 vehicles. The second is that the geometric car will be put into a new model of the A0-class SUV, that is, the Thunderbolt Tiger, together with the previous kung fu cattle in the 6-10 million yuan segment to become stronger and larger, it is predicted that there will be about 80,000 vehicles. The electric vehicles, geometry A and geometry C of the Geely Emgrand series can still maintain the performance of the existing 50,000 or 60,000 vehicles even if they reach the target. In addition, Geely also has Ruilan Automobile - that is, the Maple Leaf brand that previously relied on Lifan Motors - or can contribute some sales in the to B market, especially the replacement version of Emgrand GL to the new brand, which can fight a price war.
Geely's bigger bet is on the PHEV model. First, from the continuous release of Lynk & Co PHEV, the scale of nearly 10,000 vehicles was completed last year, so with the popularization of new energy, doubling is possible. Second, because Geely put on Thor Power, although it is mainly HEV models at present, there should be PHEV models listed in the second half of the year, comparing with BYD's DM-i model. According to the timing of Geely's launch, it may be difficult for Geely to obtain sufficient sales growth in 2022 on Thor Power, but it is likely to be a sales release point in 2023.
To put it simply, although Geely Automobile has powerful products in 2022, the overall shortcomings in the product matrix are still obvious, lacking strong products in the A-class car market, and in terms of pure electricity and PHEV technology influence, it has not shown the exclusive ability to surpass other car companies. Therefore, it is expected that Geely will still lag behind in the new energy market in 2022 and will not reach the critical point of outbreak.
Chery's new energy in 2022 may be mainly supported by QQ ice cream, this same 30,000 to 40,000 yuan of micro-electric vehicles aimed at the Hongguang MINIEV market, even if a small share is also a considerable increase. In addition, Chery New Energy will also launch a QQ series of pure electric micro-SUVs, with a wheelbase of 2160mm and a body length of about 3.3 meters, if the pricing is about 50,000 yuan, and the production capacity is stable, it is expected to change Chery's momentum in the field of new energy.
But fortunately, Changan New Energy also has a product codenamed C385, close to the pure electric version of UNI-V, this car may bring some surprises, after all, we have repeatedly emphasized that there is enough incremental space in the A-class new energy vehicle segment.
6. New energy sales forecast of foreign brands
Next, look at the prospects of overseas brands in the new energy vehicle market in 2022.
According to the Association, mainstream joint venture brands have only sold 210,000 new energy vehicles in the past year, with a penetration rate of only 2.3%. At the same time, the luxury brand segment, new energy sales of about 400,000 vehicles, if you remove Wei Xiaoli and Tesla, then the remaining traditional luxury brands of new energy vehicle sales are very small, about 79,000 units - the estimated penetration rate is only less than 3.4%.
It can also be seen from the number of licenses that FAW-Volkswagen, SAIC-Volkswagen and BMW Brilliance, which took the lead in the localization of pure electric vehicle models, should be the best new energy sales enterprises among foreign brands, but because there are a large number of trials and errors in new energy channels, they have not promoted the rise of new energy vehicles. Fortunately, from the current situation, foreign brands have gradually understood the development requirements of the new energy market, including restructuring channels and accelerating the iteration of traditional distribution models, and pushing up electric vehicle sales with the help of traditional networks. At this point, the Volkswagen ID series has a clear turn, and the effect is obvious, and the monthly sales have gradually stabilized at the level of 10,000 vehicles. Then new cars including Mercedes-Benz, Audi, BMW, and Cadillac will enter a period of rapid release, which may make the luxury market usher in the rapid growth of new energy penetration.
However, in the mainstream joint venture brand market, although the Previous American brand was the first, it was not reflected in sales. Toyota, Honda and Nissan will all launch pure electric vehicle models this year, and the product pricing will be exactly 150,000 yuan, 200,000 yuan and more than 250,000 yuan. With the distribution of Ford Electric Horse and Volkswagen ID series at different price points, we may see which market segment can become the main battlefield of mainstream joint venture brands at the end of the year.
7. Summary of this section
In general, if according to a more optimistic calculation, the self-owned brand new energy models in the above list will have more than 1 million growth in 2022, and the new forces also have the opportunity to achieve double growth. In terms of foreign brands, Tesla will single-handedly increase the increment of the entire overseas brand in the new energy market, while other joint venture brands will grow rapidly, but more are rising from tens of thousands to 100,000 vehicles.
From the perspective of dismantling the new energy vehicles of various domestic car companies, the increase of the core car companies in the entire market is almost 1.9 million or so, eliminating some backward products, coupled with the decline in sales of old products, it can basically be judged that the sales of domestic new energy vehicles in 2022 should be more than 5.2 million, which is also in line with the previous judgment.
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